See the YouGov poll results

MORE than half of Scottish voters now regard the break-up of Britain as inevitable, according to a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times.

The survey found that 60% believe Scotland will become independent from England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Support for independence remains low at present, with only 23% in favour. However, a majority, 61%, said they would consider voting for separatism in the future.

Circumstances that would persuade them to switch include the Conservatives winning the next general election or Gordon Brown, the prime minister, reducing the level of public spending north of the border.

There is a clear appetite for more powers to be devolved to the Scottish parliament, with only 20% backing the current devolution settlement.

The poll was conducted as Alex Salmond, the first minister, published a white paper setting out plans for a referendum on independence. The document is intended to start a “national conversation” on the constitution.

Salmond said he is considering staging roadshow events south of the border to counteract criticism that England and the rest of the UK is being denied a say in the future of the Union.

According to the poll, the most obvious reason for resistance to Scotland going it alone is financial, with 35% of people believing Scots would be poorer after independence, against 15% who thought the population would be better off.

Half of those polled thought an independent Scotland would be as successful as Ireland, where low business taxes and a stripped-down welfare state have transformed the country into an economic dynamo.

Scots voters identified themselves more strongly with the Irish than any other group. Only 26% said they identified themselves with the English, compared with 37% with the Irish.

Scots feel undervalued by their neighbours, with 79% saying England and Wales don’t appreciate Scotland’s contribution to the economic and cultural make-up of the UK.

The poll found the nationalists, who ousted Labour from power in May’s Scottish election, are on course to gain substantially more support at the next general election.

Asked how they would vote tomorrow in a Westminster contest, 40% said Labour (no change on 2005), 31% SNP (+13%), 14% Conservative (-2%), and 11% Lib Dem (-12%).

According to John Curtice, professor of politics at of Strathclyde University, the SNP’s surge in support would not translate into large gains in seats. The poll figures would give Labour 41 seats (+1), the SNP eight (+2), the Lib Dems eight (-3), with the Conservatives stuck on one and Michael Martin returned as the independent speaker in Glasgow North East.

On voting intentions for the Holyrood elections, on the Scottish constituency vote, support was 32% SNP (-1%), 32% Labour (no change), 12% Conservative (-4%), and 12% Lib Dem (-5%). On the regional vote it was 35% SNP (+4%), 32% Labour (+3%), 13% Conservative (-1%) and 12% Lib Dem (+1%).

The poll findings translated into a Labour victory of 49 seats to the SNP’s 48, although the figures were so finely balanced the result could go either way.

“May was desperately close in seats, so a similar poll result as this to the outcome in May is also bound to produce a close outcome in seats.

“Note also that new constituency and regional boundaries will be in place by 2011 – about which we know nothing as yet and will make the uncertainty in the event of a tight outcome even greater.”

Salmond said the poll vindicated his decision to publish a white paper, adding: “It’s quite clear there’s a debate to be had. There’s a case to be made and there’s an audience and a people waiting to be convinced,” he said.

“The huge support for a referendum is a problem for the other parties. If they stand against the Scottish people having the right to determine their future, that is basically an affront to democracy. People are enthusiastic about having the right to choose, and I think they will give short shrift to the political parties who want to deny them that opportunity.

“The groundswell of opinion for a referendum of some kind and the potential support to be canvassed and won for independence are very encouraging indeed.”

A Labour spokesman said the poll showed the largest bloc of voters remained instinctively opposed to independence.

“There is no mood towards independence. People are still strongly against it,” he added.

He said the issue of a referendum had been fully aired at the Scottish elections, when it was part of the SNP’s platform, and there was no point in rerunning it.

“While the SNP emerged as the largest party, they certainly did not emerge as the party with overall support. More than 65% of people voted for parties that were pro devolution but anti independence.”

The poll also found Brown’s approval rating was higher than Salmond’s, with 76% seeing him as having done well or very well as prime minister, against 65% saying the same of Salmond as first minister.

Asked who was doing a better job as leader, 40% chose Brown, 26% Salmond while 26% said they were roughly the same. YouGov polled 1,118 adults between August 15 and 17.

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