Gordon Brown needs an exit strategy, fast. The latest batch of polls are not decisive in themselves. Last week we had the Brown bounce. Now, we have had the, larger, Cameron bounce. So what is really going on?

The trouble for Mr Brown and his close advisers is that by Sunday, when a decision will have to be taken, no one will be sure about the underlying trends. There will still be too much volatility after the party conferences.

The latest Populus poll is based on a sample of 803 adults, of which three fifths was done after David Cameron’s speech to the Conservative conference on Wednesday. There are signs of an immediate postspeech boost pushing the parties near to level pegging.

It is not all gloom for Mr Brown, however. Labour is still up at about 39 per cent in most polls and would be on course for a Commons majority of around the current 66. Even level pegging would be sufficient for an overall majority. Moreover, the boost to the Tories reflects Mr Cameron’s personal rating (up 8 points since last week to 38 per cent on what it takes to be a good Prime Minister) rather than on issues (only one point up to 31 per cent on having “answers to the big problems facing Britain”). And he lags behind Mr Brown on these questions and on understanding the problems faced by ordinary people.

However, there are several caveats: the Tories’ ability to retain seats they won in 2005 and regional trends favouring them in the South East. So the Brown team ought to be repeating “remember 1992”: an apparently comfortable-looking poll lead could still result in an uncomfortably small Commons majority.

The early election lobby argues that now is the best chance with the economy likely to be weaker next year, by when the Tories will have had the chance to build up their challenge in target seats. The counter view is that the risks are high of a messy result, a smaller majority than in 2005 or even a hung Parliament, which would be a failure for Mr Brown.

The political danger for Mr Brown is that, having allowed the troops to be marched up the hill – if not leading them himself – how can he march them down again?

It is no good Mr Brown saying that he has never committed himself to an early election. That is beside the point. Not only has he allowed the speculation (and briefings by his younger allies) to continue unchecked, but he has brought forward government announcements which are intended to open the way for an early contest.

So Mr Brown is bound to have egg on this face if he announces that there will be no election. But better that than an unnecessary election, which could leave Labour with a lower majority than now. Either way, Mr Brown faces risks.

But the lesser one may be to say there will be no general election this year, or probably next. Mr Brown will have to steel himself to the short-term jeers and jibes, but concentrate on establishing a record as Prime Minister.

However, there may be permanent damage to his authority and that of his younger advisers. They have looked fallible. Unless Mr Brown is careful and/or gains a larger majority, we may already have passed the high point of the Brown premiership.

–– The full poll will be published tomorrow: for more details see www.populus.co.uk .

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