Gordon Brown faced an even bigger gamble over whether to call a November general election last night, after new opinion polls showed that David Cameron had eaten heavily into Labour’s lead.

A Populus poll for The Times, and two others with similar findings, cast strong doubt over whether the Prime Minister will opt for an election on November 1 or November 8 when he meets advisers on Sunday.

The Populus poll, undertaken on Tuesday and Wednesday, puts the Conservatives five points up at 36 per cent, with Labour two points down on 39 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are two points lower at 15 per cent. Three fifths of the poll, of 803 adults, was undertaken after Mr Cameron’s speech on Wednesday.

A YouGov poll for Channel 4 News put Labour on 40 per cent and the Conservatives on 36 per cent, a lead of four points compared with 11 points last week. A third poll, conducted by ICM for The Guardian, has Labour and the Conservatives both on 38 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats third on 16 per cent.

Politicians of all parties wondered how Mr Brown could go ahead with the headline poll figures appearing so volatile, as shown by the sharp fluctuations in Liberal Democrat support.

But, despite the setback, Labour advisers close to the Prime Minister were refusing to rule out an election last night, pointing out that even after a week in which the Conservatives had dominated the news, the polls still point to a Labour victory. Two separate batches of internal polling will arrive with Mr Brown today and tomorrow. A senior Labour source said: “Don’t write it off tonight.”

The advisers said that Mr Brown would wait to judge whether the Cameron “bounce” this week was temporary and whether there had been a lasting dent in Labour’s position. They said that for Labour to remain at 40 and 39 per cent after a Tory conference suggested that its underlying position remained strong.

The Populus poll shows that, while Mr Cameron’s personal rating has risen, there has been little change in the public’s view of his ability to handle Britain’s problems.

Mr Brown’s difficulties have been enhanced by the knowledge that a decision not to go ahead will damage his authority. He will face a deluge of ridicule and criticism if, having allowed his advisers to hype an early election, he runs away from it.

But Labour ministers who are urging caution say that delaying the election would give Mr Brown longer to attack Tory economic plans, which they say have been hugely undermined by the pledge to eliminate inheritance tax for all but millionaires and pay for it with a £25,000 annual charge on “nondomicile” residents.

Those who want an early election say that a three-week campaign will be enough to expose the “black hole” in Conservative spending plans.

The picture has been complicated by a decision to go ahead with the combined Comprehensive Spending Review and PreBudget Report on Monday or Tuesday of next week whether there is an election or not.

The Treasury has moved swiftly over recent days to complete both in case Mr Brown wants them to be published before an election.

Mr Cameron tried to exploit Mr Brown’s dilemma yesterday by calling on him to allow senior Tory front-benchers to meet civil servants in preparation for a possible handover of power.

In a letter to the Prime Minister, Mr Cameron said that he wanted the talks to open today so that the Tories could explain to officials their priorities for government if they won.

“Given that you have allowed members of the Cabinet to speculate openly that an election is to be called imminently, I am asking you today to give the necessary instructions for such meetings to begin immediately,” he wrote.

By convention, senior opposition spokesmen are given the chance to meet officials before an election to ensure the Civil Service is ready to implement their policies if they are elected.

In his letter, Mr Cameron disclosed that when Tony Blair was Prime Minister, he had written in April last year authorising such talks to go ahead from January 1, 2009, before a possible election that year.

The Conservative leader said that among their immediate priorities for action would be:

–– An NHS Independence Bill to make doctors more accountable to patients and a renegotiation of the GP contract;
–– Raising the threshold for inheritance tax to £1 million and abolishing stamp duty for first-time home-buyers on properties up to £250,000;
–– Replacement of air passenger duty with an airline pollution duty levied on flights;
–– Abolition of the “couple penalty” in the working tax credit and implementation of a programme of welfare reform;
–– The establishment of a national security council within the Cabinet Office to coordinate domestic and foreign national security policy;
–– The creation of a border police force.

Mr Cameron added: “Given the urgency, I would be grateful for a reply by the end of the day.”

Populus interviewed 803 adults by telephone between October 2 and 3. Interviews were conducted across the country. For more details go to www.populus.co.uk

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