Philip Webster and Peter Riddell
Subscribe to The Times and The Sunday Times

The Conservative coup in promising to take most people out of the inheritance tax bracket may be the factor that stops Gordon Brown calling an early general election, The Times has learnt.
This is reinforced by a new Populus poll for The Times showing that the Tories’ tax-cutting pledges have not only been welcomed widely, especially by younger people, but are the main reason for the party’s big bounce in the polls this week.
The Prime Minister will make up his mind tomorrow after seeing the final results of internal polling in 150 marginal seats. He remains keen to go for an election and to use the Comprehensive Spending Review — which the Treasury announced would be on Tuesday — as the springboard for a campaign that he would call later that day. But The Times understands that early indications from internal polling are that George Osborne’s announcement on Monday that the Tories would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million has gone down extremely well in the marginal seats, particularly among women.
The Populus poll of 1,000 voters, completed on Thursday evening, confirms yesterday’s initial result, based on 803 interviews, that Labour is on 39 per cent (minus two points, compared with a week ago), against 36 per cent for the Tories (up five points), and 15 per cent for the Liberal Democrats (down two points). The Tory advance occurred before David Cameron’s speech on Wednesday and may have peaked on Thursday evening.
Nearly three quarters of the public favour making wealthy people pay more in tax in order to take most people out of the inheritance tax net. A separate Populus poll for the BBC Daily Politics programme shows that Mr Osborne’s proposals on inheritance tax and plans to exempt most first-time housebuyers from stamp duty are backed by 55 per cent of voters, including 61 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds.
Mr Brown has been told of his own pollsters’ findings and will have to decide whether he can counter the Conservative move within a three-week campaign or whether it will take longer, ministerial sources said. One close friend of the Prime Minister said last night that the chances were receding.
Ministers and officials are refusing to rule out an election until the latest polling evidence comes in over the weekend. They suspect from their own polling that the inheritance tax “bounce” was not followed by a similar boost after Mr Cameron’s speech closed the conference on Wednesday. Any sign of the Labour lead widening again will again boost the early election “hawks.”
Senior Labour sources say that ministers accept they will have to make big concessions on inheritance tax to satisfy the electorate. They admit they could not match the Tory offer, which they say is unaffordable. They want to prove that the Tory plan cannot be met by their stated method of raising charges from “non-domiciles” in Britain, but equally they know they will have to come up with credible proposals to spike Tory guns.
If Mr Brown goes ahead with an election, Mr Darling seems certain to refer to possible future moves in his economic statement on Tuesday. Raising the threshold to £500,000 is an option mentioned by ministers but that would cost well over £2 billion.
If Mr Brown decides to go for an early election, he will not be able formally to announce it on Sunday because that would prevent the CSR taking place on Tuesday. Whitehall rules prohibit any fresh government announcements during an election period. But if an election has not been ruled out by Sunday, it will be assumed the contest is on.
— Populus interviewed 1,000 adults by telephone between October 2 and 4. For more details, go to www.populus.co.uk.
Read the training tips and advice that helped our London Triathletes
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles


A treasure trove of baubles, booty and stylish quests


Overseas contacts and local business information
2007
£47,995
2008
£42,945
06/2006
£40,850
Great car insurance deals online
£33,000
Macmillan Cancer Support
Central/South West
£50k
NHS
Nationwide
£
£30k OTE
Meltwater News
Nationwide
circa £70k
Central Office of Information
London
Great Dubai Investment Opportunities
from £89,950
Luxury Appts, beautiful gardens w/ Thames views
Studios £33K, 1 Beds £60K, 2 beds £79K
Great Investment, River Views
New York Christmas Shopping
Christmas Cruises
From only £995pp
APTs East Coast now from only
£2425pp.
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Globrix Property Search - find property for sale and rent in the UK. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
I find it hilarious the way all the media have gone about this non-story, or as I prefer this "lets create a story". I have not read one article in which this "election" was mentioned were anyone has actually named any of these aides to no.10, nor have I heard a quote from a minister.
The tory press sense blood, and will lie as they always lie to create what they want. They don't like spending on improving infrastructure of our schools, or the hospitals. They despise the working man and any benefits he might be given, while supporting wholeheartedly changes in death tax, to benefit the few.
As for the phrase "stealth tax", I presume this means indirect taxation, which is wholeheartedly a tory idea. A tax were whatever you earn you pay the same, thereofore allowing the lesswell off to pay more proportionally. The shame is, is that Labour continued this policy.
Rem: No boom or bust; child tax & working tax credits; new schools, hospitals, more doctors etc etc...
Paul Noble, wolverhampton, UK
the lies and deception are coming home to kick him out.
the longer Brown stays the worse he will lose the next general election.
just remember; pension theft; spin; iraq; death of soldiers; stealth taxes, Hutton enquiry; Human Rigths rules.
lawrence, southport, uk
Mr Brown may well have emerged from this fiasco somewhat damaged, but in my eyes he has retained his credibillity He is constitutionally within his rights to call an election at any time and not in response to a hysterical campaign orchestrated in the main by the media
Frank Greaney, Formby, Liverpool
Breaking reports suggest that GB will now not have an election in November.
A shame that we will have to stick with Labour for a little longer, but if this is what the Conservatives wanted in order to achieve a larger majority in future, then I'm happy.
PP, Swansea, UK
Mr Smith of Scotland -
You have missed the point completely on inheritance tax. It is not so much a question of being taxed, but of being Mr Brown brazenly invading one's home to plunder it as a right. He has had more than his fair share of robbing us on everything else. But he will not be allowed into my house.
As for 'not happening for many years', take a look around. Maybe in Scotland, nobody is past 60 years of age.
P Stewart, Kent, UK
Brown has shot himslf in the foot.
He won't have the guts to call an election now.
If he does, he will lose it.
edwina rigby, blackburn, England
It is strange that a PM who promises to "listen to the public" didn't hear their repeated calls on lowering of taxation relating to inheritance, stamp duty, council tax and also fuel surcharge. The Tories have rightly picked up on the nation's feelings, but are their overall policies good enough to win?
Hamad lone, ex-pat brit, Middle East
The Tories should also look at reducing Council Tax, fuel duty and VAT on some essentials ! How could they afford to do this ? Scrap the expensive Tax Credit system, cut back on pay and perks of MPs and take us out of the EU !
Whilst they are at it - why not remove the first £10,000 of income out of the tax regime ? Then thinking ahead, there's the highly successful flat tax which is simple to understand ....
One is allowed to dream !
Time for the Tories to be ambitious for Britain !
David , Swindon, Wiltshire
It is telling that the first we here about cutting inheritance tax from the government is only after another party has proposed it. It basically sums up the current government, who are unwilling to really change things unless they are forced too. Problem is when they do make changes its only tinkering which creates a lot of red tape and costs billions!
James Cornish, Lancaster, England
It is truly refreshing when a leader like Mr. Brown shows the courage of his convictions!
Terry Matthews, Lewisville, North Carolina, USA
Camron has done a great job for Labour. Now Alistair Darling will be able to tax rich non domiciles without being accused of being jealous of the wealthy. Let's hope he returns any revenue he does raise in this way by increasing the IHT limit, pensioners and first time buyers - hooray!
sk, Eastbourne, East Sussex
Lets face it the only people who were gunning for an election were the media. Labour had no need for one. The Tories showed their true colours at their conference last week by fielding a raft of ideas in a desperate bid to win support. Of course the electorate warmed to these one-off ideas which accounted for the shift in the opinion polls. In order to be seen as a credible party, they now need to write all these ideas into their manifesto; they can now thank their lucky stars they have another two years to develop a sound and cohesive range of policies to stand some chance of defeating Labour.
Paul T, London, UK
No surprise. Brown should be scared of the electorate, with the bare-faced lying over his involvement in key policies, rapidly diminishing economy and a cabinet staffed with inept non-entities. This will only strengthen feeling that when an election does come, he will be the Labour leader to lose it. And good riddance.
R. Liversidge, Ripon, North Yorkshire
its to do with non-domicile residents like the metal magnet who have 15 billion yet pay no tax in britain.
true labour would have squeezed these parasites till the pips squeaked and squeaked and split.
no anymore they invite them too their parties so they can fund the political party.
greed begets greed begets greed
do you think non-domicile residents pay inheiritance tax, they cant becuse they dont live here in real labours eyes
thats labours real problem, the tories are going after the billionaires which real labour have ignored for 12 years
michael mckeary, paisley, scotland
Paul from Leeds has it, the reason evryone is burdened with tax is because of a too big a government strangling the peoples freedom. Governement should not be micromanaging peoples lives or how and what they spend their money on,. This governement is all about control
Gary, Bognor Regis, WEST SUSSEX
If Gordon Brown opts for an early election it will be because the underlying trends are bad for the economy. What a dilemma!!!! To go to the country when 75% (ie everyone except Old Labour) welcomes the proposed new Inheritance Tax bands or to wait until the economy gets worse next year.
The CSR on Tuesday will show that in many, many Councils the settlement will be worse for the next 3 years than it has been for years. Therefore Council Tax will either have to go up beyond the cap, or services will be cut. Or both!
And Unions are becoming restless about the inflation pay awards. They reckon the awards are bad faith because of the staggered nature - which is true, they are bad faith.
Frank Keegan, Alderley Edge,
"Publc services" isn't just nurses and police officers. It's inspectors to check your office has the appropriate number of No Smoking signs displayed on the walls, and the mosquito-types who come and inspect your home before issuing a 500-quid Home Information Pack. It's the untold billions lost forever on grand IT schemes that enrich nobody but the shareholders of the companies that a"manage" these farcical projects.
Cutting public spending is not the same as throwing OAPs onto the midwinter streets. It is reducing the squillions frittered away on vast centralised ventures which do nothing except strengthen the grip of central government.
When it comes down to the voter and their ballot paper, the loudest voice in the cubicle will be "Tax Cuts" and its conscience salving echo "Efficiency". Then they tick the Tory box, but tell everyone they voted Labour.
A referendum on the European Treatitution might also help the decision-making process.
David Masu, Zürich,
What everyone has to bear in mind is that nobody wil actually be affected by the inheritance tax cut unlless a loved one actualy dies,which surely most people will hope doesnt happen for many years,and therefore is not really relevant for most people during the course of the next parliament.I doubt the election will turn on this one issue alone.If I was Gordon Brown I would still call the election now,even though the best terests of the country might not be be served by it.The tories can only improve in the polls from now on so it may be Labours last best chance of securing a 4th term.
Iain Smith, GRangemouth, Scotland
Not only would the Tories benefit from abolishing Inheritance Tax, but also capital gains tax and stamp duty. A 10% corporate flat tax and a 15% income tax. How to pay for all this?
Cut government. Tax is the price of government and in Britain is too expensive and for years has been too incompetent.
Paul, Leeds,
"Fear not" is the most quoted phrase in the Bible.If we agree that family is everything,then let's give families security.
Abolishing this inhumane "Death Tax" is what the conservative party should aim for.
James Currie,Yoga teacher, Marbella, Spain
The Tories should get rid of inheritance tax completely. This must be written into their manifesto and made a priority and they will get a huge amount of support for it.
roger Kingston, york,