Gordon Brown, said Peter Riddell in yesterday’s Times, “needs an
exit strategy, fast.” Well, the EXIT sign is clear. It points away from an
autumn election and straight through a stinking pit of slurry; after which,
having run a gauntlet of sneering Tories wielding sharp sticks, Mr Brown
will have to let the media throw wet sponges at him for a few weeks.
OK, Gordon, go on: bottle it if you want to. Your advisers – hired and
self-appointed, they are many – will be telling you there is no other way
out of this mess – and that once the dust has settled you will be seen to
have acted shrewdly and in pursuance of a longer-term plan to destroy David
Cameron’s Tories.
They’ll remind you that backing down won’t be pleasant and won’t be pretty,
but you’ll live to fight another day; that the world will have forgotten by
Christmas. How the clichés will flow. A slice of humble pie today – better
than the poisoned chalice tomorrow of an election that could doom your
premiership. So brace yourself to tell a barefaced lie and claim you never
set the hare running in the first place, and we all simply dreamt it. Nobody
will believe you but – hey – that’s politics.
Even before this column is printed, this argument may have prevailed. Mr Brown
may have reached and signalled the same conclusion. No matter. I’m going
join the ranks of Mr Brown’s self-appointed advisers to make the case for
carrying on regardless into an election now. I think it would be brave, and
be seen as brave. I don’t think the Tories do want a election in November,
whatever they say; and I don’t think that if Mr Brown bottles it the world
really will have forgotten by Christmas.
The Brown brand has been seriously tarnished in the past two weeks. Doubts
have been implanted that will not be forgotten. For our Prime Minister now
to choose to call an election that he is not constitutionally bound to call,
and that he knows he stands a serious chance of losing, offers him a huge if
high-risk chance to wipe away the stain. This dip in the polls gives Mr
Brown a tremendous opportunity to show he’s not just a calculating
street-fighter, but a man prepared to risk his premiership in order to gain
the trust of the nation he wants to lead. Such a chance may not come again.
There are less worthy arguments for an early poll. Even on a shrunk margin he
would probably win. Though the poll numbers have fluctuated sickeningly over
the past few months they do point to a fairly firm Labour vote, with
Opposition support slopping around more capriciously. Some have been arguing
that it was the Tory promises on inheritance tax this week that caused the
latest upward blip; that throwing out tax-cutting candy wins only temporary
support; and that a solid campaign and unrelenting spotlight on the
comparison between their man and the Tories’ David Cameron would bring the
voters back.
It is true that closer examination of yesterday’s Times-Populus
poll (taken both before and after Mr Cameron’s speech) suggests that
Conservative support grew after the Cameron speech. Support not gathered by
the Tory tax promises was won by Mr Cameron’s own appearance. And of course
it would be dangerous to suppose that three weeks’ further spotlight either
on Tory tax giveaways, on their leader himself, or on Mr Brown, will
necessarily redound to Mr Brown’s advantage.
But over the past 100 days the more the public has seen of Mr Brown, the
better they’ve liked him. Why might this not be true of the next four weeks?
Nor should the Prime Minister be swept away by the argument that he must do
more than win, but win big. I’ve advanced it myself. The Tories all will. It
would be embarrassing, to be sure, to go in search of a personal democratic
mandate, and come back with a sort of “er . . .” from the voters, in the
form of a reduced majority. But if it’s enough to govern with, and if Mr
Brown has a programme of big things he wants to do in government, then his
programme will soon elbow aside sneers about the size of his majority. How
many people know what Labour’s majority is now?
The sneers about his character will be harder to shift, but next week he could
shift them. Unless he calls and wins the general election for which he has
whetted our appetites, the Prime Minister’s standing will suffer the sort of
chronic damage that arises when small doubts are sown in the public
imagination and left to germinate as new instances of old vices are noticed:
such has been the effect of his behaviour over the past few weeks.
Who advised him to try that cheap trick with Margaret Thatcher? Who wrote that
empty Bournemouth speech at the smugfest masquerading as Labour’s
conference? Who thought it wise to try to trick Sir Menzies Campbell, or to
bring into his tent as an adviser a Tory backbencher sacked by his leader
for remarks that had been called racist? How well is Mr Brown being advised?
Whatever led him to think it was clever to try to destabilise a Tory
conference with an announcement in Iraq on troop withdrawals – and then
fiddle the figures in a manner so likely to be rumbled?
Any one of these silly dodges, mean tricks and minor fiddles can be
rationalised, justified or explained away. The elector notes them, files
them half-forgotten in the unconscious memory, and moves on. Thornton Wilder
describes the process vividly in The Bridge of San Luis Rey:
“Carefully wrapped in understanding and forgiveness, it sank into her
heart.” Only a contrary example can erase the memory of mean-spiritedness:
time and forgetfulness never quite do.
When I argued the attractions of an early contest on this page in July, I
thought there was one thumping advantage it offered Mr Brown, one reason the
electorate would respect for going early to the country: that Mr Brown has
not been elected either as Prime Minister or Labour leader, and wanted his
own democratic mandate. For this there would be huge voter sympathy both for
his courage and for his honour as a democrat.
But by playing around with people’s expectations, looking calculating,
unconfident and cheap, he has come close to forfeiting such sympathy, and if
he backs away now has plainly forfeited it for a 2008 election. There is a
way to regain respect; this is his moment; and he must do it now.
Otherwise there’s a good Old Norse word Mr Brown risks attracting, and it’s
“sly”. In the undergrowth of human endeavour, slyness is thought to offer
some low advantage; but it is not thought to equip a beast for the primacy
of the jungle; and it is not admired. Some would call an autumn election
foolhardy, but nobody now would call it sly. If he thinks he could win,
however, narrowly, then Gordon Brown has a chance to renew his premiership,
while putting to flight a most unpleasant suspicion. If he retreats, he will
reinforce it.
The article makes sense, Matthew ! Well argued.
However Brown is a calculated coward ! He talks tough - but is politically spineless. I have no doubt that he has been influenced by the Tory 'revival' but there are nagging doubts.
Firstly, how would our new PM fare in 5 weeks 'up close' campaigning against young Cameron ?
Secondly, is the economy doing as well as Gordon likes to tell us ?
Third, if the Tories get a surge on a 'second rate' crowd pleaser like Inheritance Tax - what other damage could they do ?
Fourth, Labour is being tranced in Scotland. Alex Salmond is still on a roll ! How much time will Labour devote to the Scottish campaign ? Will this divert resources from the struggle in England ?
Fifth, Gordon's effective use of patronage will recede - and Tory supporters will not be so keen to jump ship after the successful Blackpool conference.
Deal or no deal, Gordon ? Maybe £250,000 in the red box - but subject to inheritance tax, of course !
D Latham, Swindon, Wiltshire
Brown blames Blair for eveything, what a coward. It is like a child at scholl 'please Miss it was him'! The country expected Brown to look after our pensions and the rest of the economy with care. The only pensions he has cared for are his own! Anyone else delivering such a poor service would have been sacked, not promtted. He has robbed us all of our long term financial security but keeps pretending that he is the 'new boy' so this is not of doing. The mess is his doing and now he wants to try a sneak back in before he is totally rumbled - how dishonest is that?
Rachel , Camerley,
Go on, Mr Brown, have the election so that we can vote you out with all the frustration and anger and injustice of the last 10 years that you and your party have heaped upon us. It should not be allowed to continue.
P Granger, Kent, UK
Brown perfers the dark, not the light.
The longer he is in the forefront of the headlines - and as PM he can't avoid it - the sooner his brand will be completely shot.
And of course, as always, "it's the economy, stupid". Brown's real day of reckoning is closing in on him, anyway.
MarkS, Leeds,
What Gordy might think on reading this article:
"If Matthew Parris says I should do it, I almost certainly shouldn't!"
(Unless, like David Cameron's "bring it on", it is another cunning double bluff)
Josh, Ashford, UK
He HAS to go now !
The economy will be wrecked by this time next year.
Or is that what he plans? to hand over a basket case situation as was the case in1979?
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
Outstanding and perceptive article Mathew, on many levels.
Election now or later, this man and his government must go if Britain is to recover.
James, London, UK
There is nearly two years of parlimentary time to run. Mr. Brown has not lost the mandate. John Major took over from Mrs. Thatcher without an election. Anyway, Mr. Brown was happy to be PM without thinking about the election for three months. An election just to "grind the Tories into dust" is essentially undemocratic because it results in a weak opposition because that is what will happen to the Conservatives This is what Mrs. Gandhi used to continually do. Now how is this for "third world"ism as many writers and readers are fond of saying?
Every one who is concerned should vote the Tories and Lib Dems for strong democracy. Punish Mr. Brown for the narrow thinking.
LS, Oxford,
It is the performance of the media that people wont forget. With no constitutional reason for Gordon Brown to call an election, and indeed several constitutional reasons for not so doing, and no practical reasons for calling an election, the media is blatantly interfering in the process of government.
Henry Percy, London, UK
This article misses the single, over-riding, reason why Brown has been tempted to hold an early election - which is the dilemma created by the revival of the EU Constitution.
Blair promised the other EU leaders that it would be imposed on the British people, come what may, and Brown has inherited that promise.
But when they stood for election in 2005 Brown and all the other Labour MPs promised us that we would have the final say, in a referendum.
Attempts to present the Reform Treaty as "not the Constitution" have failed, so there is no justification for ratifying it without a referendum, but the chances of winning that referendum are slight.
So the answer is to avoid a referendum by holding and winning an early election, and this time without any manifesto pledge of a referendum.
If there is an election, a vote for either a Labour or Liberal Democrat candidate will be a vote for Parliament to ratify the EU Constitution without a referendum.
Denis Cooper, Maidenhead, England
It's true there is no need for and elections but, the electoral registration question isn't really relevant - these days we have rolling registers so anyone who wants to vote has plenty of time to make sure they're on the list.
December 1 is a good suggestion, however, as it is on a Saturday but why not Saturday November 3? I don't think many of us could stand two months of campaigning!
If Mr Brown doesn't go now, I think he's taking a huge risk. The Tories seem to be making some progress and people who haven't voted for them since '92, and who went to the Liberals, are starting to think about where they want to put their cross.
Many of them aren't quite ready to go back to the Tories but they're moving away from the Lib Dems - another few months could cost tMing a great many seats which would go straight back to the Tories.
That could just cost Labour their majority.
Nick, East Anglia, UK
We don't want another election...or don't we count? Why should Brown have the power to decide on whether we have one or not, but only if it's in his best interests. I say go for a fixed term and make PMs finish out their term properly.
He forced himself into the job without an election so he doesn't need one now.
He cannot be allowed to pick and choose the time, how democratic is that?
Samantha Jones, Bucks, England
I agree with Matthew Parris here - this is beyond media gossip or news generation, though an election would undoubtedly feed those things. This is fairly and squarely about Mr Brown's mandate. He hasn't got one, he won't have one until he calls an election, and he doesn't deserve to run the country without one.
Notwithstanding Neil Kinnock's small minded remarks about a general election being the perfect pestle with which to grind the Tories into the dust this is Mr Brown's chance to demonstrate that this leadership is about a fresh start, a fresh way to govern this country - and that his departure from the 'old politics' is just that and one endorsed by the people.
K St Aubyn, London,
It amazes me how gullible, people are portrayed as being.Over the last ten years Brown has had his finger in every decision right up to the elbow.Galloway summed it up exactly with his remark on Blair and Brown,of Browns four crises the goverment have been partially responsible for three. I wonder how many people speak openly when questioned by pollsters and now that Cameron has shown himself as leadership material may now prove to be a better contender than many thought.My thought is that the British and particularly the English may give Brown a shock.His advisers may well feel the need for caution.
Roger Rowan, Sandown, Isle of Wight
Gordon Brown will go to the country and opt for an election in November out of pure selfishness; a greed of and for power. For he knows just how dire things are to become for this country next year and beyond.
Under his management, his Government has produced a series of disastrous judgements that are about to collapse around his ears. We are on the verge of a financial abyss of Gordon Browns creation...and it will be of hurricane proportions to the scale of 6!
Unplanned immigration is at the heart of all that is to unfold. Tax increases will be vertical in nature as Gordie strives to avoid riots across the land. Unemployment, especially amongst new immigrants, will explode and there isn't the revenue in place to pay them! Our health and education structures are close to collapse as it things stand right now without vast increases in tax.
So of course Gordon Brown will opt for an election soon, he has for other choice! Any later and the game will be up for him! I despair!!!
David Downes, Chester, UK
The only people who want an election are not the Labour party, nor the Tory party or the voting public, it's the media. The only people who don't or won't appear to be aware of this are the media themselves. After months of spinning out the Madeleine McCann story with journalist generated half truth and rumour you guys have got to realise that everybody is getting wise to your game. At some point, and I'm not so sure we haven't reached that already, your 'serious' news will have no more currency than the storyline of the latest reality tv show.
Nobody minds you having a gossip, but do it in the pub and not in the newsapapers.
Tim, London, UK
The prospect of an early election is a strange one:
Tony Blair promised to serve a full term as PM when the Tories made an issue of vote Blair get Brown. He jumped off his perch after a mere 2 years.
When challenged, on the transfer of power (behind in the polls), Mr Brown said it was perfectly normal and had happened as recently as 1990, so there is no need for a new mandate, I'm getting on with it.
The Tories dropped off a cliff in the Summer and he went ahead in the polls, banging on about changing things - Government of all the talents etc. (which nobody had voted for). So is this why he thinks he might need a new mandate, nothing like the naked opportunism Gordon attacked Howard's Tories for leading up to the last election? Or is it something like 100 days in and they still haven't worked out how horrible you really are, we have to get another five years before they work out what a dour cynical person you really are? New politics? Pah!
Damien Collis, Monchengladbach, Germany
"go on: bottle it if you want ", "if Mr Brown bottles it", this article is totally unreadable.
Saunders, london,
I think this is a really good article.
I personally reckon the democratic bit could be reinforced though by a 1st December election when those other voters can be logged in. Sure there's time for things to go wrong for Brown, but what courage and sense would be implied by saying it for that reason.
And if that's silly and I am naive, I reckon what you've argued here is a good case for Nov 1
Jonathan, London, England