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GORDON BROWN has scrapped plans to hold an early general election, provoking
Tory jibes that he has been forced into a “humiliating” retreat after a
slump in the polls.
After studying private Labour opinion polls and focus group research, the
prime minister concluded it was too risky to go to the country this autumn –
and indicated last night a general election might be delayed until 2009. The
decision comes as a Sunday Times poll this weekend shows the Tories have
swept into a three-point lead, having been more than 10 points behind only
last weekend. It is the first time David Cameron’s party has been ahead
since Brown took over as prime minister.
A separate poll for the News of World shows the Tory lead is even bigger in
marginal seats, rising to six points ahead of Labour. Both surveys suggest
there would be a hung parliament if the election were held now.
Brown summoned a BBC camera crew to Downing Street last night to explain his
decision. In the interview, to be broadcast today, the prime minister made
clear he would not be calling an election this year and indicated one was
unlikely next year.
He said he wanted to get his own programme of reforms under way before going
to the country. He claimed the decision had “nothing to do with the polls”
but pointed to problems with the electoral register – some 1m voters are
currently not listed.
Brown told the BBC: “I’ll not be calling an election and let me explain why. I
have a vision for change in Britain. I want to show people how in government
we are implementing it. Over the summer months we have had to deal with
crises. We have had to deal with foot and mouth, terrorism, floods, the
financial crisis. And yes we could have had an election on competence and I
hope people would have understood that we have acted competently. “But what
I want to do is show people the vision that we have for the future of this
country: in housing, health, education. And I want the chance in the next
phase of my premiership to develop and show people the policies that will
make a huge difference and show the change in the country itself.”
However, he immediately faced Tory claims that he had made a major error of
judgment in allowing speculation to snowball, only to “bottle it” at the
last minute.
Cameron accused Brown of “great weakness and indecision” and a “humiliating
retreat” that had robbed the public of the chance to vote for change.
“This is not about change; it is about clinging to office. The reason the
prime minister has cancelled this election is because the Conservative party
is making the arguments about the changes this country needs and people are
responding very positively to our proposals. “It is quite clear he has not
been focused on running the country these last few months; he has been
trying to spin his way into a general election campaign and now has had to
make this humiliating retreat.
“The big disappointment for me – and I think for millions of people in this
country – is that we are now going to have to wait possibly two years before
we can get the real change we need in our country.”
Writing in
The Sunday Times today, the Tory leader says: “The prime minister –
having marched his cabinet to the top of the hill – has now lost his nerve
and is marching them back down again.
“But what will now be remembered is farcical weeks of secret briefings,
hurried policy announcements and, most shamefully of all, the exploitation
of the British troops in Iraq for party political ends.”
One senior shadow cabinet member said: “This is a complete f****** disaster
for Gordon Brown!” Michael Portillo, the former Tory cabinet minister, said
it was “a catastrophic career-ending error” for Brown. Sir Menzies Campbell,
the Liberal Democrat leader, also sought to exploit Brown’s decision. “The
prime minister has belatedly put an end to the charade of last few weeks,”
he said. “He could have prevented needless speculation by making this
announcement long before now. Gordon Brown has been acting in the interests
of the Labour party and not in the interests of the country.”
Brown met his key advisers on Friday morning to discuss the confidential
polling data. He was told by Stan Greenberg, the American pollster who has
advised Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry, that although he would win a
general election he could not be sure what majority he would get.
Had Brown gone to the country and won less than the 66-seat majority that
Blair achieved in 2005, his authority could have ebbed away, leaving him
exposed to taunts that he was a “lame-duck” leader. Brown agreed he should
“sleep on it”.
Greenberg had also found that polling in the marginal seats was bad news for
Labour. This is confirmed by the News of the World poll today that shows the
Tories’ lead over Labour rose to six points in the marginals.
The prime minister was also swayed by findings that the Tories’ party
conference announcement to raise the threshold for inheritance tax to £1m
had struck a chord with swing voters.
“We did loads of tracking polls during the Tory conference,” said one adviser.
“Cameron’s speech did not feature, but what really hit us hard was the
Conservative promise to raise the threshold on inheritance tax.”
Another No 10 adviser said: “Gordon only needed to have lost 25 seats to lose
his majority. It was too risky.” Today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll puts the
Tories on 41%, Labour on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 11% — a
three-point lead for the Conservatives compared with double-digit deficits
last weekend.
Among female voters, there has been a huge swing to the Tories. A week ago
Labour had a 15-point lead; now the Conservatives are six points ahead.
Among men, Labour was eight points ahead a week ago but now the parties are
neck and neck. The big squeeze has been on the Liberal Democrats, who have
slipped from 15% to just 11% in a week.
If repeated at a general election, the poll would produce a hung parliament,
with Labour still the largest party on about 310 seats, with the Tories on
about 290. The News of the World poll of voters in 83 marginals suggests a
similar outcome with Labour losing 49 of the seats including those of Jacqui
Smith, the home secretary, and a host of other ministers.
Yesterday, Brown’s aides acknowledged there would be a backlash from the
public and politicians for appearing to dither only to duck out at the last
minute. “We know we will take a hit for this,” said one aide. The news will
be privately welcomed by the Tories, many of whom feared a drubbing in an
early poll. It is also a tactical victory for Cameron.
Many MPs will see this weekend’s news as a turning point for Cameron, who was
generally perceived to have had a good conference in Blackpool where he
launched the Tory fightback and effectively ended talk of a “Brown bounce”.
In his interview, Brown maintained that if he did call an election now, Labour
would still win. The prime minister said: “The polls go up and down, I’ve
got no doubt we’d win an election. I would relish the chance, obviously, to
scrutinise and examine and forensically show how the Conservatives’ policies
would bring economic disarray to this country.
“But, you know, as prime minister, you have got a power and you have got a
responsibility. Your power is that you alone make a decision about election.
The responsibility, however, is to listen to people and to exercise that
power with responsibility. So, yes, I think I had a responsibility to
consider it, to listen to what people were saying, to listen to what the
opposition parties were saying, to listen to what people in my own party wanting
an election were saying, to listen to the public. The priority was not an
election.”
He admitted that some of his advisers had been urging him to go for an autumn
poll. However, he will now be hoping to minimise the likely backlash, by
making a further announcement on troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Last week the prime minister was accused of “spin” when he made a surprise
visit during the Tory conference to Basra and announced that 1,000 UK troops
would be “home by Christmas”. It turned out that many had already returned
home and some had yet to be deployed in the first place.
Tomorrow Brown will make a Commons statement confirming Britain’s intention to
half its troops in Iraq within months. Although the prime minister will not
give any precise timing, he is expected to confirm that troop numbers in
southern Iraq will be cut to about 2,500 by May.
On Tuesday Alistair Darling, the chancellor, will publish the comprehensive
spending review and his pre-budget report, two Commons statements that were
brought forward to allow Brown to go to the Queen that day and announce the
general election. In a move that could have got the campaign off to a bad
start, Darling is expected to downgrade his economic growth forecast for
next year and announce tough targets for public spending.
