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From The Sunday Times

October 7, 2007

Gordon Brown backs down over snap election

Tories jump to three-point lead

David Cracknell, Political Editor, The Sunday Times

Read the latest YouGov poll results

GORDON BROWN has scrapped plans to hold an early general election, provoking Tory jibes that he has been forced into a “humiliating” retreat after a slump in the polls.

After studying private Labour opinion polls and focus group research, the prime minister concluded it was too risky to go to the country this autumn – and indicated last night a general election might be delayed until 2009. The decision comes as a Sunday Times poll this weekend shows the Tories have swept into a three-point lead, having been more than 10 points behind only last weekend. It is the first time David Cameron’s party has been ahead since Brown took over as prime minister.

A separate poll for the News of World shows the Tory lead is even bigger in marginal seats, rising to six points ahead of Labour. Both surveys suggest there would be a hung parliament if the election were held now.

Brown summoned a BBC camera crew to Downing Street last night to explain his decision. In the interview, to be broadcast today, the prime minister made clear he would not be calling an election this year and indicated one was unlikely next year.

He said he wanted to get his own programme of reforms under way before going to the country. He claimed the decision had “nothing to do with the polls” but pointed to problems with the electoral register – some 1m voters are currently not listed.

Brown told the BBC: “I’ll not be calling an election and let me explain why. I have a vision for change in Britain. I want to show people how in government we are implementing it. Over the summer months we have had to deal with crises. We have had to deal with foot and mouth, terrorism, floods, the financial crisis. And yes we could have had an election on competence and I hope people would have understood that we have acted competently. “But what I want to do is show people the vision that we have for the future of this country: in housing, health, education. And I want the chance in the next phase of my premiership to develop and show people the policies that will make a huge difference and show the change in the country itself.”

However, he immediately faced Tory claims that he had made a major error of judgment in allowing speculation to snowball, only to “bottle it” at the last minute.

Cameron accused Brown of “great weakness and indecision” and a “humiliating retreat” that had robbed the public of the chance to vote for change.

“This is not about change; it is about clinging to office. The reason the prime minister has cancelled this election is because the Conservative party is making the arguments about the changes this country needs and people are responding very positively to our proposals. “It is quite clear he has not been focused on running the country these last few months; he has been trying to spin his way into a general election campaign and now has had to make this humiliating retreat.

“The big disappointment for me – and I think for millions of people in this country – is that we are now going to have to wait possibly two years before we can get the real change we need in our country.”

Writing in The Sunday Times today, the Tory leader says: “The prime minister – having marched his cabinet to the top of the hill – has now lost his nerve and is marching them back down again.

“But what will now be remembered is farcical weeks of secret briefings, hurried policy announcements and, most shamefully of all, the exploitation of the British troops in Iraq for party political ends.”

One senior shadow cabinet member said: “This is a complete f****** disaster for Gordon Brown!” Michael Portillo, the former Tory cabinet minister, said it was “a catastrophic career-ending error” for Brown. Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, also sought to exploit Brown’s decision. “The prime minister has belatedly put an end to the charade of last few weeks,” he said. “He could have prevented needless speculation by making this announcement long before now. Gordon Brown has been acting in the interests of the Labour party and not in the interests of the country.”

Brown met his key advisers on Friday morning to discuss the confidential polling data. He was told by Stan Greenberg, the American pollster who has advised Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry, that although he would win a general election he could not be sure what majority he would get.

Had Brown gone to the country and won less than the 66-seat majority that Blair achieved in 2005, his authority could have ebbed away, leaving him exposed to taunts that he was a “lame-duck” leader. Brown agreed he should “sleep on it”.

Greenberg had also found that polling in the marginal seats was bad news for Labour. This is confirmed by the News of the World poll today that shows the Tories’ lead over Labour rose to six points in the marginals.

The prime minister was also swayed by findings that the Tories’ party conference announcement to raise the threshold for inheritance tax to £1m had struck a chord with swing voters.

“We did loads of tracking polls during the Tory conference,” said one adviser. “Cameron’s speech did not feature, but what really hit us hard was the Conservative promise to raise the threshold on inheritance tax.”

Another No 10 adviser said: “Gordon only needed to have lost 25 seats to lose his majority. It was too risky.” Today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll puts the Tories on 41%, Labour on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 11% — a three-point lead for the Conservatives compared with double-digit deficits last weekend.

Among female voters, there has been a huge swing to the Tories. A week ago Labour had a 15-point lead; now the Conservatives are six points ahead. Among men, Labour was eight points ahead a week ago but now the parties are neck and neck. The big squeeze has been on the Liberal Democrats, who have slipped from 15% to just 11% in a week.

If repeated at a general election, the poll would produce a hung parliament, with Labour still the largest party on about 310 seats, with the Tories on about 290. The News of the World poll of voters in 83 marginals suggests a similar outcome with Labour losing 49 of the seats including those of Jacqui Smith, the home secretary, and a host of other ministers.

Yesterday, Brown’s aides acknowledged there would be a backlash from the public and politicians for appearing to dither only to duck out at the last minute. “We know we will take a hit for this,” said one aide. The news will be privately welcomed by the Tories, many of whom feared a drubbing in an early poll. It is also a tactical victory for Cameron.

Many MPs will see this weekend’s news as a turning point for Cameron, who was generally perceived to have had a good conference in Blackpool where he launched the Tory fightback and effectively ended talk of a “Brown bounce”.

In his interview, Brown maintained that if he did call an election now, Labour would still win. The prime minister said: “The polls go up and down, I’ve got no doubt we’d win an election. I would relish the chance, obviously, to scrutinise and examine and forensically show how the Conservatives’ policies would bring economic disarray to this country.

“But, you know, as prime minister, you have got a power and you have got a responsibility. Your power is that you alone make a decision about election. The responsibility, however, is to listen to people and to exercise that power with responsibility. So, yes, I think I had a responsibility to consider it, to listen to what people were saying, to listen to what the opposition parties were saying, to listen to what people in my own party wanting an election were saying, to listen to the public. The priority was not an election.”

He admitted that some of his advisers had been urging him to go for an autumn poll. However, he will now be hoping to minimise the likely backlash, by making a further announcement on troop withdrawal from Iraq.

Last week the prime minister was accused of “spin” when he made a surprise visit during the Tory conference to Basra and announced that 1,000 UK troops would be “home by Christmas”. It turned out that many had already returned home and some had yet to be deployed in the first place.

Tomorrow Brown will make a Commons statement confirming Britain’s intention to half its troops in Iraq within months. Although the prime minister will not give any precise timing, he is expected to confirm that troop numbers in southern Iraq will be cut to about 2,500 by May.

On Tuesday Alistair Darling, the chancellor, will publish the comprehensive spending review and his pre-budget report, two Commons statements that were brought forward to allow Brown to go to the Queen that day and announce the general election. In a move that could have got the campaign off to a bad start, Darling is expected to downgrade his economic growth forecast for next year and announce tough targets for public spending.

The latest news on taxing non domiciles is that it may not be legal. Apparently the EU rules protect member states for their tax haven status and it would not be legal to tax in two countries!

sk, Eastbourne, East Sussex

GORDON has done the right thing by not calling a Election.The Millions of Working Class Labour Voters Who voted Labour into Power over the last Ten Years.And are in low payed work and Part time work.Will find out just what Labour thinks of them.When from April Next Year when All of them who get less than Â£7500 ayear.See there Taxes go Up by 100%.Maybe People will start to wake UP.

K Saunders, Oxford,

Once all of the troops are out of Iraq, what will Brown be able to play with. He's certain to introduce more stealth taxes, treat the electorate with total contempt (we're bored of contempt - could someone tell him) and fail to deliver anything worthwhile (He's managed to fire fight issues but has not shown any vision at all). It's a mystery why the media are so subservient.

Richard, Huntingdon, Cambs

It will be interesting to see if the tory saboteurs who were determined to bring Cameron down now start showing a bit of loyalty. Cameron has taken a bunch of no-hopers to the brink of victory, and shown Britain that Brown is anything but infallible. Let's hope the right wing loonies appreciate that and start supporting their leader. He sure stared down Brown on this one.

Doug, Glasgow,

Broon says he will not have a referendum on the EU treaty [ although its about 90% of the rejected EU constitution ] albeit we were promised a referendum in the labour 2005 election manifesto as he will insist on HIS RED LINES. This statement by broon is a RED HERRING....

John, DUNFERMLINE, fife

Clever political conference moves from Chameleon Dave, but it's easy to promise popular tax cuts when you know you won't have to deliver the goods - let's see if he's still making the same promises in 2 years. Do his newly announced policies mean he no longer believes we should hug a hoodie, abolish grammar schools, impose green taxes on everything from holidays to supermarket shopping etc etc. ? Though a lifelong conservative voter I will never vote for the party while the immature Cameron is its leader, because I think he's so desperate for personal power he'll say anything that might appeal to voters. He's totally insincere and isn't competent to run the country. I'd rather have new labour with Brown till the tories work out what they really stand for.

Hannah, Cambridge,

I have just watched the PMâ€™s interview, he PM is floundering and thrashing around. In one breath:

I have been absolutely clear, if we don't achieve these red lines, I will veto the treaty.

The very next breath on a referendum: If for some reason I came back from Brussels and had not achieved my red lines decided and that err err, but but there it is. At this point the ever helpful Andrew Marr moved on. Brown, a ditherer? Who said that?

Incidentally, is it not a bit disingenuous that at a referendum on the Constitution, Mr Brown presumably would have recommended ratification to the electorate, but now we are supposed to believe he is going into bat with a firm belief in these red lines on the so called amending treaty?

Surely, he should be doing what he thinks is in Britainâ€™s best interests, which he thinks is the Constitution, so why the red lines?

Damien Collis, Monchengladbach, Germany

I think this whole ordeal shows that Gordon Brown is not fit to run this country. He cannot even make a decision about whether to call an election, then when he drops in the polls he runs and hides.

Wesley, Hornchurch, Essex, England

Sorry Rachel of Rochester - the Thatcher years showed just how taxes can be cut, by shrinking the perecentage size, not the absolute size of the public sector, and that is just what Cameron is promising (as is Brown). But Cameron believes in it as a policy and will go farther with it. Brown inherited a strong economy from Ken Clarke, but thanks to his borrowing and the unwieldy public sector, its now very vulnerable. Its a great pity that he bottled out. We need the change.

Mary barnes, Etchingham, United Kingdom

Rachel, Rochester, England, previously exclusive Labour habit of promising unbelivable tax cuts
What planet did you say you were from?

D Case, Newquay,

Sad. I love elections.
However I feel Gordon Brown is right. You can't let the Tories to govern. It would be suicide for britain

Thomas, Brittany,France,

Rachel the proposed IHT cut amount to about 0.5% of total bloated public spending. Its easily affordable. Public spending has been out of contol under Brown.

Mark , Solihull, England

Gutless Gordon, the man who backed down so many times when it came to his leadership showdowns with Blair !
Well, proof beyond doubt that the Labour government is led by a spineless Scot.

Rick, London, England

Blair must be laughing his socks off, Gordo kept in waiting so long to pick up a failing economy (now who can we blame that on?) and a Conservative Party announcing it's own policies before Labour does!!!

Nick, Potters Bar,

You know it will be all over for Broon (I think it already is) when the puppet master of this newspaper switches sides again. And I think that will happen quite soon...

For Cameron, now, and thankfully, the Sky's the limit.

Jono, Liverpool, UK

Does Brown really expect anyone to actually believe the spin he is putting out about cancelling the election?

Dr Michael John Parkinson, Tewkesbury, England

It is time for a change. 10 years of any single party is enough, not to mention someone that has helped harm the parlimenar process. Was he really sitting quietly by whilst house prices spiralled out of control? Money on transport and health and policing does not seem to be well spent. It is time for a change and to deny an election, whether he won or lost, means we have an unelected PM. Is this good for democracy? Why does he not just use the Parliment Act and extend his premiership that way?

Phil, London,

The "Death Tax" is both inhumane and immoral and should be repealed immediately.
The current government is tired,and useless.They have failed miserably to increase the standard of living of the poorest members of our society,whilst overseeing an explosion in uncontrolled immigration.
Gordon Brown "Bottled" and we all know it!

James Currie, Marbella, Spain

Brown talks about the Conservatives monetry policies bringing economic disarray to the country. By this time next year he might be wishing he had gone to the polls. Nothing the Conservatives could do could be more damaging than the last ten years which have been built solely on debt, but which are about to plunge us into the deepest recession this country will probably ever experience. I for one welcome his decision. By the time he does decide to go to the polls the Conservatives will be onto a sure winner.

sophie, norwich, uk

So, Brown is now the new Yellow!

Bill Holmes

Bill Holmes, Derby, England

Just poker. GB has forced the tories to show some of their cards at last. He now has two years to counter them.

T. Corn, chesterfield,

That's it, Gordon Brown has done a Callaghan... He will go to the vote at the end of the 5 years of this Labour term and be absolutely thrashed by the other parties.

During the next few years the global economy is going to go into reverse and the new Labour economy will be exposed for the total load of hog wash that it is.

Gordon had one chance to survive, go now and fight for his right to govern, on winning he could have called an election in 2012 junping on the back of the feel good factor of the Olympics, now he will be remembered as the new Labour bottler!

Chirs, Lingfield, Surrey

We had an election one and a half years ago; it would have been a folly to spend tens of millions of pounds for an election now as the current parliament's term has three and a half years more to run. So long as the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, there is no need for an early poll.

Santosh, Odiham, England

YELLOW is the new BROWN

MarkS, Leeds,

Are the 1 Million voters who havent registerd to vote actually English or is Brown just estimating the next wave of imigration!

Andrew "vote" Webster, Heswall, Cheshire

The only reason for the current Tory surge in the opinion poles is that they have fallen into the previously exclusive Labour habit of promising undeliverable tax cuts. In the Thatcher years, I well remember Norman Tebbit making a Labour MP squirm by repeatedly asking him the question â€œYes, but how are you going to pay for all this?â€
Moreover, what does Portillo know about elections when he bottled one himself.

Rachel, Rochester, Engand

There is no way back for Gordon Brown from that catastrophic spin trip to Iraq.

Brown and his misguiding advisers need to resign.

The country deserves to cast its vote on this dithering prime Minister who was quick to accept the acclaim for our magnificent rescue services during terrorist attacks and floods. The foot and mouth lessons had already been learnt by his predecessor. In fact Gordon has gained praise and done nothing so we should not have been surprised by this spin merchant with no bottle

David Cameron, on the other hand, has been remarkably strong and effective.

maggie snook, wool, wareham, Dorset UK

Voting ought to be about the principals and policies of a party, and not just its leader, oughtnâ€™t it? Brown is a fully elected member of parliament and has no need to call a snap election. Many think calling an unnecessary election an act of political vanity anyway. Brown has very perceptively decided not to go to the polls as the Tories have become a victim of their own success. If they had put in an abysmal performance at conference, the chances are that Brown might have gone for it. However, desperation conjured up a cracking show and ate into Labours lead. Curious gravitas has been given to the totally ineffective John Majorâ€™s opinion, whose own party tried to air-brush him out of its history. Cameron can huff and puff, but he knows that he cannot goad Brown into calling an election until June 2010. He now faces several more years in which to sink into oblivion.
Never does Harold Wilsonâ€™s quote ring so true: â€œa week is a long time in politicsâ€.

Rachel, Rochester, Engand

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