Gordon Brown did not look happy as he took his seat at the Pride of Britain
Awards ceremony on Tuesday night at television studios on London’s South
Bank.
Before the cameras rolled the prime minister sat down at his table, surrounded
by celebrities whose names he did not know, and adopted an ogreish
expression that signalled: “Don’t talk to me, I don’t want to talk to you.”
Only when the signal was given that the cameras were rolling and the programme
was going “for a take” did Brown’s face light up with a smile.
The event was organised by the Daily Mirror, the Labour-friendly tabloid
newspaper. But Brown did not appear to feel close to anybody that night.
It should have been a happy occasion. Tuesday was supposed to have been a key
day in his “relaunch”. Labour was making all the moves to regain the
initiative after David Cameron’s successful speech at the Conservative party
conference in Blackpool and the fallout from Brown’s decision last weekend
not to call a snap election.
On Monday the prime minister had announced further troop withdrawals from Iraq
and earlier on Tuesday his chancellor Alistair Darling had delivered his
first prebudget report, with good news on inheritance tax, increased
spending on the National Health Service and more money to build a new
primary school in every local area within three years.
Yes, Darling had been forced to downgrade his forecast for economic growth but
Downing Street aides hoped that things would start to look up. Yet among the
star-studded surroundings, the look on the prime minister’s face said it
all.
Maybe he knew what was coming. The following day he was trounced by Cameron at
the first prime minister’s questions of the new parliamentary term. The Tory
leader taunted him as a “phoney” and asked when “the past makes way for the
future”.
Brown looked tired and haggard. His attempted joke about there being only 26
signatures on the No 10 website calling for an election this year fell flat.
(By this weekend there were more than 12,000 names on the petition.)
Then business leaders, having digested Darling’s statement, began to express
how unpalatable they found the move to introduce a flat-rate capital gains
tax of 18%. They pointed out that for many investors in small businesses,
this would amount to a tax increase of 80% on their profits.
Richard Lambert, director-general of the CBI, which represents British
business interests, and a former adviser to Brown, said it would “undermine
a 10-year effort by this government to promote enterprise and risk-taking”.
To make matters worse, an opinion poll on Friday confirmed the findings in
last week’s Sunday Times survey by YouGov that Cameron was three points
clear of Labour. One in three people now thinks that the Tory leader would
make the best prime minister.
Last week insiders revealed that following the disastrous performance at prime
minister’s questions, Brown was “very depressed”.
“Gordon is usually an avid texter and emailer,” said one. “Over the past few
weeks it had been nonstop. But suddenly last week, calls were ignored, texts
were left unanswered and our email dialogue dried up.”
Brown and his staff had expected to face taunts that he had “bottled it” and
would get a rough ride for a few days. But last week more profound questions
were being asked.
Had Brown’s weakness given Cameron hope that he could become prime minister?
Was this the moment when the Tories could really claim that they were
setting the political agenda? And on what issues could Brown regain the
initiative? AS recently as a fortnight ago, Brown was on top of the world.
He enjoyed double-digit opinion poll leads and left the Labour party
conference in Bournemouth looking unstoppable. His first speech as Labour
leader had left some activists in tears – not least the emotional Lord
Kinnock, the former party leader.
In the immediate aftermath, Brown’s speech to the party faithful may have
sounded fine but, as time has gone by, many MPs are considering it a case of
“all motherhood and apple pie”.
One insider said: “Gordon’s team don’t know what to do. There’s nowhere to
turn. They knew before the start of the Tory conference that they could have
got a 100-seat majority. But the political initiative was squandered.”
Having been silent for three months, his predecessor Tony Blair, looking
tanned and well in his new role as Middle East peace envoy, has for the
first time let his views be known to friends.
Blairites this weekend began to exact their revenge on the man who had
conducted a guerrilla war against them for more than a decade. The former
prime minister was said to be “concerned about what new Labour stands for”.
In an even more cutting jibe he is said to be “unhappy” at how Brown has
handled the past couple of weeks, telling friends that Brown’s conference
speech was “empty”.
Blair had always feared that Brown would come unstuck because of a lack of
substance and a fear that he would not continue with aggressive reform.
This weekend it sounded as if the Blairites had given up on Brown. One former
minister complained of a “lack of vision”. Westminster was thick with talk
that key allies such as Alan Milburn would step down at the next election.
In the Brown camp there is still a feeling of regret about the decision not to
call a snap poll. “If only Gordon had made his announcement a few days
before he did, he could have got away with it,” said a key ally.
Further details of the botched decision have emerged this weekend. Not only
were key Brown aides “kicking lumps out of each other” last Sunday over the
way the prime minister’s verdict was leaked to news organisations, but the
truth about how insubstantial their ideas were has also become apparent.
One party apparatchik said: “The manifesto was thin. The Labour ‘war book’ for
the election was empty. The truth is, we have no new policies. The polls may
have been bad, which they were, but the fact is that if we had called the
election we were intellectually as well as financially bankrupt.”
So frustrated were senior party figures that it is said that Peter Watt,
Labour’s general secretary, was on the verge of resigning. He was pulled
back from the brink only when he realised it would have made a crisis out of
a drama.
Alastair Campbell, another party stalwart, was equally perplexed and was said
to be “deeply hurt” at being excluded from the party’s election machine.
Having been an indispensable strategic adviser for the past three general
elections he was smarting at being left out in the cold.
Yet a far more serious issue than a former spin doctor’s wounded pride
remains: what to do next?
One No 10 official said. “It’s a bit like The Candidate [the Robert Redford
film]. There’s a potent moment when they have won power and the question is
asked, ‘what do we do now?’ There is just no creativity and no energy around
Downing Street at the moment and Gordon knows it.”
There are fears that having crunched the comprehensive spending review and
prebudget report into a day’s parliamentary session, the scope for big
policy initiatives is narrow. There is the Queen’s speech on November 6, but
Brown tried to make a virtue out of his preannouncement of the entire
contents. So, no surprises there.
“The government has a problem,” said a senior civil servant in the Cabinet
Office. “We’ve had Iraq, we’ve had the comprehensive spending review and
we’ve had Lord Darzi’s report on the NHS. They were all designed to capture
the electorate’s imagination. The trouble is that the cupboard is now bare.”
Another senior civil servant bemoaned the way the machine was run “at full
pelt” while the election decision was pending. “What was the
point of bringing Ara Darzi’s report forward? We all thought No 10 was
taking a serious look at the NHS and Darzi was sincere,” she said.
“But look what happened. It was all brought forward and Darzi recommends that
GP surgeries open at weekends. Big wow! It’s hardly ground-breaking research
into how healthcare should be structured for the next generation, is it?”
Brown had pinned his hopes for regaining the initiative on the prebudget
report and comprehensive spending review last Tuesday. Normally, these
set-piece events set the agenda for the coming political season. In this
case, nobody in Whitehall was under any illusions that the two events had
not only been brought forward but had also been amalgamated as an election
launch pad. Darling’s speech was hastily rewritten last weekend and was sent
to the printers only on Monday evening.
As the chancellor rose to his feet on Tuesday afternoon, expectations were
dampened. Labour MPs thought that at least they could rely on some
traditional Brown-ite good news, outmanoeuvring the Tories. But the
headlines from Darling’s statement appeared to be just rehashes of Tory
policies. In the minds of some Labour MPs, it was plain burglary.
Treasury insiders claim that all the key proposals, including a doubling of
the inheritance tax threshold to £600,000 for married couples, had been in
the pipeline for months and had been considered for inclusion in the budget
last March.
In a further sign of apparent larceny, Andy Burnham, chief secretary to the
Treasury, yesterday signalled a big shift by calling for married couples to
get tax incentives in recognition of the benefits that their children and
society as a whole gain from their union.
The claim that inheritance tax reform had been on the cards for months was
taken with a huge pinch of salt in Westminster. If the Treasury had been
looking at it seriously, it raises a possibility that is no less reassuring
for Brown. Does George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, have a mole in the
Treasury who is tipping him off about the government’s plans?
Brown will remember that in the final days of the last Tory government, as
John Major’s administration was falling apart, he was the beneficiary of a
stream of leaks from officials.
Last week the worry was about the presentation of Labour policies. On Tuesday
even party officials were disappointed with the new chancellor’s delivery.
Never a crowd-puller in Commons exchanges, they had tried to help Darling by
providing some jokes to lighten what they knew would be a dull performance.
Although armed with these “killer quotes”, Darling still managed to leave
most Labour MPs disappointed and uninspired.
Brown, however, seemed to be enjoying the occasion, smugly chuckling at his
government’s “cleverness”. Yet after his “monstering” by Cameron the next
day, he looked pale and wan instead.
For their part the Tories are happy to sit back and enjoy the prime minister’s
woes. Privately Cameron admitted to friends last week that he could not have
won the election had it been called for this autumn, although he had high
hopes of a hung parliament.
Team Cameron believes that Brown’s “dithering” over the election and
“stealing” of Tory policies has left a political vacuum that they are more
than happy to fill. “We think there’s a chance to lead the agenda here. It’s
about time,” said one of Cameron’s aides.
The Conservative leader has written to the prime minister demanding a
referendum on the European Union treaty, which Brown will travel to Lisbon
this week to negotiate.
So pleased was Cameron with his performance at prime minister’s questions that
he felt able to travel to California last week to meet Arnold
Schwarzenegger, the state’s Republican governor. “He [Schwarzenegger] has
done a good job on finances, environment, crime and education. I think he’s
an impressive guy. And he got reelected,” said Cameron, in a knowing dig at
Brown.
The Tory leader’s aides say he is returning to Britain with new ideas on
crime, the environment and technology. But he is not prepared to detail them
just yet – in case Labour steals them again.
Brown is said to have “gone into a depression. He is very gloomy”, according
to one aide. But for all the talk about his problems, with probably at least
18 months to go to the general election a lot can happen to affect the
opinion polls. Cameron has shown that he is equally capable of crashing and
burning. And his party needs a much bigger swing in the polls if it is
serious about getting into No 10.
As one shadow cabinet member admitted last night: “We can’t just continue
swinging between 38% and 41%. We need a far greater lead if we are to stand
a chance of sweeping Labour from power.”
If the English new what Brown was doing to his own countrymen the Labour party would be even even further behind in the polls. Try reading the Scottish papers on the web.
James, Lanarkshire, Scotland
Of course Brown can recover.
So far Cameron has promised that, if elected, to match Labour spending.
On top of that he has now promised to hand back £2B to the well-off by means of his Inheritance Tax changes.
Where is this money to come from ?
As soon as Labour spell out the effects of this 'Bullingdom' tax (ie a tax which will benefit the well off and levied on a non existent non-dom population but which, in reality, will be met by the less well off. This is a continuation of the antics of the notorious Bullingdon club famous for rubbing the noses of the less well off in the mire) and when it becomes clear that when Cameron spoke of 'sharing the proceeds of growth'
he meant sharing it amongst the better off, the brief love affair with the Conservatives will come to an end.
David Dee, Canterbury,
He should talk to Frank Field - he knows what needs doing.
Edward Sheepshank, Birmingham, England
Nobody appears to be bothered about the massive council tax rate rises across the country that are also in the Brown/Darling budget.
philip, Ipswich,
this is what happens when you rely on someone from Kirkcaldy, i mean seriously.. the guy isn't a leader, how he even got so high on the ladder scares me.
bring back tony, at least the man could lead a country through crisis...
William Wallace, Edinburgh, Hell
As a former British Prime Minister once said, "A week is a long time in politics."
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
This country needs new blood for a leader, and how many tax rises can the normal working families or small businesses put up with, this government had squander the amount of money rise from tax and pension , its time for a change
Keith , Cardiff, Wales
It's extraodinary how this seemingly purely political issue has grabbed the attention of ordinary people. My next door neighbour had something to say about it. The people I go to the pub with once a week all have their opinions. Most agree that Brown has "blown it" at least temporarily.
It occurred to me that the reason this has captured the public imagination more than most political issues is its "soap opera" like atmosphere.
Unfortunately Brown can only blame himself for creating this atmosphere. He managed to keep himself in the headlines and media spotlight for the past fortnight all for the wrong reasons. It started out positive and then rapidly turned negative for him.
John Goh, Welwyn Garden City, UK
The only people getting worked up over this are politicians and pundits. The vast majority view Brown, Cameron et al with total apathy. When an election is called it will come down to which one will not upset the mortage rates. That is amongst those who will even bother to vote
James Fowler, Doncaster, UK
It's the beginning of the end for Labour.
Philip, Dorset, England
Brown is weakened by his putsch within the Labour Party, he has no legitimacy: the man simply has not faced public competition and it shows at the dispatch box. What a failure. It is simply absurd that this man feels entitled to negotiate on behlaf of the British people on a sessionist document to the EU. This is a breach of his obligation to parliament and the electorate, plain and simple. No mandate = no European Treaty. So some one tell him to call an election, or New/Old/Pickpocket Labour will be gone for a generation.
Paul, London,