Explore Blair’s decade at No 10

Tony Blair is on course to earn £5 million from the publication of his Downing Street memoirs in the second half of 2009, The Times learnt last night.

The former Prime Minister has struck a deal with publishers on both sides of the Atlantic that has only ever been bettered by the sums paid to Bill Clinton for his account of his presidency, publishing sources said.

Mr Blair said last night: “I hope my memoirs will provide a serious and thoughtful, but also entertaining, reflection on my time as a Member of Parliament and as Prime Minister.”

Mr Blair, who will write the book himself – there will be no ghostwriter – is expected to write frankly about his relationship with Gordon Brown.

However, it is understood that it will be done in a way that does not damage Mr Brown, who served as Chancellor throughout Mr Blair’s premiership.An informed source said: “Look, Tony is not about to dump on Gordon after all these years.”

The expected publication date, the autumn of 2009, may nevertheless encourage Mr Brown to go for a general election in the summer of that year to avoid the risk of fallout from the Blair memoirs. After his decision not to go to the country this autumn, Mr Brown is now widely expected to wait until at least June 2009 and hold the election on the same day as polls for the European Parliament.

Mr Blair's account will be published by Random House, who won the deal after an auction involving several other publishers, both British and American. It will be serialised in newspapers in Britain and America.

Of the publication date of Mr Blair’s book, a friend said: “It will be two years because he has not started it.”

Mr Blair is engaged as Middle East peace envoy and has been mentioned – particularly by President Sarkozy of France – as an ideal contender to be the first permament president of the European Council of Ministers.

The book will be published under the Hutchinson imprint in Britain and by Alfred A. Knopf in the United States, both part of the Random House group. The chief executive of Random House, Gail Rebuck, is married to Lord Gould, Mr Blair’s senior pollster during his time as Labour leader. Ms Rebuck said: “We are absolutely delighted to be publishing Tony Blair’s memoirs. He was an extraordinary Prime Minister, and this will be an extraordinary book.”

The memoirs were the object of a bidding war that went on for days. In the US, the Knopf chairman, Sonny Mehta, said: “He has a remarkable story to tell. His tenure as Prime Minister was marked by close relationships with Presidents Clinton and Bush, and he enjoys a profile in this country that is rare among foreign leaders.”

Mr Blair was represented in negotiations by Robert Barnett, who secured Mr Clinton’s £6 million deal for his book My Life.

Katherine Rushton, ofThe Bookseller magazine, said that Mr Blair had probably lost about £3 million because he delayed the book deal. She said: “Estimates have been up to £8million but it looks like it’s set to be about £5 million because he waited quite a while before selling.”

As details of Mr Blair’s deal emerged, the Conservatives received a fresh boost with a nine-point increase in the latest YouGov poll, overturning an 11-point deficit to move ahead of Labour by 41 per cent to 38 per cent.

Mr Brown’s ratings decreased, with 48 per cent of voters expressing dissatisfaction, and David Cameron’s ratings almost doubled from 21 per cent to 40 per cent.

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