Young people plan to cut their spending on Christmas presents this year, in contrast to big increases expected by pensioners.

A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken last weekend, shows that adults expect to spend an average of £393 on presents this Christmas. This is 10.6 per cent more than they expected to spend two years ago. Over the same period consumer prices have risen by just over 4.5 per cent, These estimates cover only presents, not spending on food and drink.

Similar polls have turned out to be accurate predictors of the pattern of the Christmas season for retailers. However, because the poll is about expectations rather than actual spending, and because of fairly small samples in age and regional groups, the overall trends are more significant than the precise cash figures.

Retail sales have been sluggish recently, with spending growth slowing during the autumn. The Populus poll, undertaken between December 7 and 9 – for more details see populus.co.uk – points to wide variations between different groups.

Young adults, in the 18 to 24 range, are already the lowest expected spenders, but they plan to reduce their outlay on presents by 8 per cent, compared with two years ago, to just over £260 on average. Taking account of inflation, this indicates a double-digit fall in real terms.

By contrast, people over 65, previously the lowest-spending group, expect to increase their purchases by nearly 30 per cent to just under £347.

The highest-spending age groups, those aged 35 to 44 and 45 to 54, typically those with most children, expect to increase their present buying by 12.8 per cent up to £490, and by 11.1 per cent up to £435, respectively.

Moreover, men plan to raise their spending on presents by 16.1 per cent compared with their expectations in December 2005, while women expect a rise of just 6.6 per cent. This narrows, but does not remove, the gender gap, with women expected to outspend men by £399 to nearly £387.

The economic uncertainty and the credit crunch have had an impact, especially in the South East, where banks and financial services are concentrated. People in this region, Britain’s most prosperous area, expect to increase their spending on average by only 3.7 per cent, up to £310, compared with Christmas 2005. This not only represents a reduction in real terms compared with two years ago but also indicates that spending in the South East could be just three fifths of the average level in Scotland, where spending of £507 – an 18 per cent rise – is expected.

Otherwise, the highest level of average spending is expected to be in the Midlands, at £425, a near 15 per cent rise.

Professionals and managers are the most cautious. They remain the highest expected spenders, at £440 on average, but this is only 7 per cent higher than their plans two years ago. By contrast, white-collar workers expect to increase their spending by 15.5 per cent, up to nearly £407.

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