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Click here to read the YouGov poll results in full
GORDON BROWN’S political reputation was built on his management of the economy. Now, amid fears of recession, a fall in house prices and a rise in unemployment, the prime minister’s ratings are plummeting.
Today’s YouGov poll of almost 1,500 people for The Sunday Times shows that the Tories are in their strongest position for more than 15 years with a 13-point lead. They are on 45%, compared with 32% for Labour and 14% for the Liberal Democrats. A month ago the figures were 41% for the Tories, 35% for Labour and 13% for the Lib Dems.
Women in particular are deserting Labour. The Tories now enjoy a 20-point lead among female voters, compared with 6 points among men.
The poll also shows an unprecedented drop in Brown’s personal ratings. At the height of the Brown “honeymoon”, in August, the prime minister had a net approval rating of 48%, the difference between those saying he was doing a good job and those saying he was doing badly. In October, when he was agonising over whether to call an early election, his approval rating was still a healthy 30%. But it dropped to minus 10% last month and is down to minus 26% this month.
Brown has been hit by a series of setbacks, including the delayed election, Northern Rock, lost computer discs and the “donor-gate” scandal over party funding. While David Cameron has a positive personal rating of 20%, Brown’s is now only just above the lowest point reached by Tony Blair – minus 34% in April 2006, at the height of the cash for honours scandal.
By a margin of 45% to 12%, people think Brown is less competent than Blair was, though by a small margin, 26% to 23%, they think he is more honest and truthful.
On this measure, Brown is doing better than his party. Following the resignation last month of Peter Watt as Labour general secretary over funding irregularities, 77% now think Labour is as sleazy or sleazier than the Tories were. There is, though, no clamour for the return of Blair. Most think it would make little difference and the proportion saying things would be better is balanced by those who say it would be worse.
Gloom about the credit crisis, house prices and the risk of Britain slipping into recession have undermined confidence.
More than half of people, 53%, say they are very or fairly worried about a recession and rising unemployment next year, outnumbering the 43% who say they are not. If the economy does slide, 32% said they would blame Brown for making the economy vulnerable through high debt levels, while others said they would blame the banks or America’s mortgage market.
The government is also blamed for wasting money; 90% of people think some or most of the money poured into public services has been wasted.
More than a third of people – 36% – expect house prices to fall next year with 23% expecting a rise. In June, only 8% expected a fall and 61% thought prices would rise.
The gloom is already affecting spending. A third of people said they were spending less this Christmas than last; less than a fifth admitted to spending more.
Research by the accountants Ernst & Young suggests that retailers are responding to the lower preChristmas spending by cutting prices aggressively. The average high street discount, taking into account three-for-two offers and “Blue Cross” sales, where there is a further discount on a sale price, is 34%, significantly more than last year.
There is scant backing for Brown’s battle over police pay. By a margin of 48% to 29% people think the police are doing a good job, and by 27% to 11% that they are underpaid. However, only 25% think the police should have the right to strike while 67% disagree.
In the Lib Dem leadership battle, which will be resolved this week, 61% of Lib Dem supporters polled as “don’t knows”.
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What is significant is that the next major election test is in London next May - and Conservatives are clearly in the lead. Boris Johnson has a very good chance of clearing out Livingstone.
Richard, London, England
I saw john Major on tv today.He said nothig about shagging Edwina.
declan forde, nottingham, uk.
Gordon Browns legacy quite simply, DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!
charlie, Cambridge, uk
This should be fun. Unemployment with a country full of foreigners taking the jobs. Now we'll be keeping all the economic migrants on the dole. Well done Gordon.
judy, Liverpool, england
Brown Brown Brown... Out Out Out!
percy mbekanbu, Sedgefield, UK
Prosperity over the last 10 years has been built on on $3trillion worth of personal debt. Brown managed nothing except to get everyone further into debt. He is not wanted and the his only option is to tax and waste money. Stop spending the proposed $9BN on Africa for starters and give us a general election.
steve, chester, cheshire
Vic, Bradford,, "sold over half of UK gold reserves when the market tanked."
What happened was that the government actually announced the sale before hand which caused the price of gold to plummet... has to be the most stupid move in the history of sales. Of course the price is going to plummet if you announce you will be putting more gold into the marketplace... unless of course they wanted it to plummet so they could sell a little but buy a lot at knock down prices... unlikely to be the case knowing this government!
Graeme, Edinburgh,
Agree with pretty well all the comments above and Matt from London makes a particularly good point.
There is a huge difference between 'Leadership' and 'Management'. Blair and Thatcher were leaders, Brown and Major however are/were both Managers.
My money is on him never winning an election as PM...
JJH, Stratford on Avon, UK
When Brown was following Tory policies (the first couple of years) the economy was doing okay. Since he put his great clunking fist on it, it's been all downhill and I've been waiting for the chickens to come home to roost. I shan't be buying as much this Christmas - my pension is index linked to Brown's fictional inflation rate, while my council tax, fuel, utility and food bills are rising by the real rate (and Brown's income tax take is about to double next April with the abolition of the 10% band in favour of 20%). As for being taken seriously in Europe - give me a break! If we withdrew and stopped paying that grossly inefficient monstrosity called the EU (remember the accounts haven't been signed off for 13 years), we'd be quids in! We should emulate Norway and Switzerland; they're hardly poor!
Andy, Whitchurch, England
Gordon Brown is a the classic Chief Financial Officer who should never have been promoted to CEO. He lacks the strategic vision and risk taking qualities needed to lead. He is about as inspirational as Steve Maclaren. Gordon, you should have been an accountant, how did you ever come to lead our country?
General election now.
Matt, London, England
Interesting Scottish breakdown.
SNP - 32%
Labour - 31%
Con - 16%
LD - 16%
Green - 3%
UKIP - 1%
BNP - 0%
Other - 1%
May be small but it reflects the latest YouGov poll for Scotland only - SNP 32%; Lab 32%.
Is another of Gordon's legacy going to be losing Scotland entirely?
And the predicted economic downturn hasn't even started yet.
James M, Glasgow,
When Blair lied to all of us at least he lied honestly. Brown just lies without conviction.
ex labour supporter, essex, uk
Gutless Gordon has proved in a very short space of time that he was great at introducing stealth taxes, ruining pension schemes, starving British troops of adequate funding and being the Invisible Man whenever trouble arose but when it comes to running the country he is the probably the worst prime minister in centuries.
Richard , Greater London , England
Why oh why are our senior politicians so anti Europe. In 1973 we had to do a U turn to gain entry into the Community and the way the Euro is strengthening it won't be long before we are required to do another.
For as long as we allow references to America being our principal ally to go unchallenged we will always be thought of as America's trojan horse in Europe.
It's time we realised we are only America's ally when they want us to be so. Readers have only to cast their mind back to the Granada incident to see that.
The fact is, we shall not be trusted in Europe until we abandon our grandiose ideas and accept our limitations in the modern world.
Michael Smith, Medway, England
The economy did well in the last 10 years despite Bean, not because of him. He was just lifted on a rising tide like the floating turd he is.
Redcliffe, London,
Lets put the facts straight about Gordon Browns management of the economy and get rid of that misconception that he did well. Firstly Brown was handed a very positive balance of payments from John Major and it was the Tories that created it NOT Brown. Secondly Brown had a fire auction of British gold at knock down prices losing tens of millions of pounds in the process. The next stunt he pulled was to destroy the best private pension provisioning in Europe by raiding them and stealing several billions from private pensioners whilst gold plating his own and that of the civil service. Finally, in spite of all this extra money he'd scammed from the country, he had to resort to financial subterfuge on a par with Enron & Worldcom to try and hide his excessive spending on crackpot Labour programs. Only now with the collapse of Northern Rock has the real truth become public that his 10 years as chancellor were nothing more than a clever con trick. This is the real Gordon Brown !
Mike, Alicante, Spain
Why is Bottler Brown continually referred to as "having built his reputation on the management of the economy" when he has no reputation to speak of? This idiot promptly raided our pensions to the tune of at least £100bn within months of winning office and sold over half of UK gold reserves when the market tanked.
The only reputation he deserves is one of a sly, incompetent, ham-fisted, self-obsessed, gutless, spineless, weak-willed, indecisive, bone-headed, stubborn, power-crazed, tax-and-waste cretin who wouldn't be capable of running a bath let alone the world's 5th largest economy. If he had any balls, and I don't mean his equally witless chum Ed, he'd do the honourable thing and call an election.
Like Bliar, it appears that The Bottler has the same deluded tunnel vision, believing he is "doing the right thing" regardless of public opinion and will do anything to cling to power. He says he wants to be judged on policy, I say he already has a shameful 10yr record to be judged on.
Vic, Bradford,
Pricing Generation Y out of the house market to satisfy the large electorate of baby boomers and make them think they are "rich" is a creation of Brown's going back a decade.
Now that he is being found out, he has nowhere to run.
Bring on the house price crash and bring on Brown's downfall.
Chris, London,
I am amazed to read that if the economy does slide (and it certainly will) then less than one third of people will blame Gordon Brown. Wake up guys!
Nick O, Varna,
Gordon 'Bottler' Brown's government lurches from crisis to crisis, like a drunken elephant in a glass factory. Meanwhile, the next election draws ever nearer.
However, we should note that Brown has managed to perform
one miracle. He has made Tony Blair look good.
Mark, Bedford,
We have had some rotten Prime Ministers in the past. Compared with the present incumbent they were all brilliant.
Frank Leader, Bournemouth,