Gordon Brown is to oppose an above-inflation pay rise for MPs but faces being rebuffed by a coalition of backbenchers from all parties.

The Senior Salaries Review Body has recommended a rise of nearly 1 per cent above inflation. But, having urged big groups of workers to show restraint the Prime Minister, hopes that MPs will lead by example. However, the mood among backbenchers appears uncompromising, with many MPs insisting that their pay has fallen behind comparable groups.

Pay restraint was urged by the Government across the public sector, while the independent award of 2.4 per cent to police has been staged.

The findings of the independent Senior Salaries Review Body, which makes pay recommendations for MPs, have not yet been made public. However, leaked reports suggesting an increase of 2.8 per cent in April, with further increases amounting to nearly 10 per cent over three years, were described as “broadly accurate” by a Downing Street source.

The source added that Mr Brown would oppose such a big rise – although the ultimate decision rests with the MPs. A No 10 insider said: “We are not setting this up as a confrontation that we think we can win. Gordon believes MPs have to show restraint in today’s circumstances but this will be extremely difficult.”

There will be a free vote in the Commons on the issue. Privately many MPs know that they will face criticism in their constituencies, but they appear ready to ride out the storm. The Tories are hoping that government backbenchers will support them by defying the Prime Minister.

John Spellar, the Labour MP for Warley, in the West Midlands, said that backbenchers deserved the pay recommendation as their pay had fallen behind equivalent earnings and inflation in recent years.

Stephen Pound, the Labour MP for Ealing North, called for “fairness and some sort of reasonable attitude” rather than “everyone coming out of the woodwork and accusing MPs of having their snouts in the trough”. He added: “I’ve never ever, in the time I’ve been an MP, done less than a 14-hour day. I think we work pretty damn hard for what we get.”

Glyn Travis, of the Prison Officers’ Association, said that a 2.5 per cent pay rise would be outrageous. He told The World at One on BBC Radio 4: “Public sector workers’ pay has fallen behind since 2001, way before MPs alleged their pay had fallen behind.”

Times Recommends

• The bright side of this winter rain
• Story behind the picture: Snow Leopard, 2008
• Times Charity Appeal: The Place2Be