Peter Riddell: Political briefing
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Immigration has been seen widely as one of the most toxic issues in British politics — a potentially big vote shifter — ever since Enoch Powell’s “rivers of blood” speech 40 years ago. Its impact nationally, as opposed to locally, however, is both more complicated, and possibly less in total, than commonly assumed.
The myth may be more potent than the reality. According to regular Ipsos/MORI polls, immigration and race are consistently in voters’ four most important issues facing Britain, alongside crime, defence/terrorism and health, although the economy is rising again. References to immigration have risen from the upper 20s to above 40 per cent.
There is, however, some evidence that immigration is more of a talking point than a vote mover. For instance, when people are asked which are the most important issues for them and their families, rather than for the country, immigration falls from the top four to about eighth. Immigration can also be a “code”, a convenient scapegoat, for worries about affordable housing, job and healthcare.
Focus group watchers report that immigration is not the burning issue it was three or four years ago when it was often raised spontaneously and angrily. That was the height of public concern over asylum-seekers, who were often described as scroungers, taking up social benefits and using public services, to squeeze out “hard-working British people”.
Mentions of asylum-seekers have fallen as the number of applicants has dropped. Now there is more conern about migrants from Central and Eastern Europe but there are mixed feelings about them. Some voters are favourable, recognising the benefits to the economy from new migrants: fewer appear to be seen as “scroungers”. Of course, in particular areas, there are worries about the impact on public services and housing. Some older people complain that their children are being squeezed out of unskilled work, or their grandchildren out of holiday work. Nonetheless, the local impact should not be underestimated, as seen in the gains at by-elections by the British National Party, and its threat, especially to Labour, on May 1.
A Populus poll a month ago of 1,000 white British adults (excluding 7 per cent of ethnic minorities) for the BBC “white” season showed that the white working classes are more pessimistic than their middle-class counterparts. Moreover, half of the former, but only a third of the latter, believe that immigration is “a bad thing for the country”. Twice as many working-class as middle-class people (27 to 13 per cent) believe that immigrants have put their jobs at risk.
Immigration remains a powerful influence in the minds of politicians, a source of vulnerability for Labour and of gains for the Tories. Hence the headline message of the report on immigration from the Lords Economic Affairs Committee — the caveats are ignored — has worried ministers. Questioning of the economic benefits of immigration by such an authoritative group threatens the Government’s case. No wonder Gordon Brown had such a detailed answer ready for his news conference yesterday lunchtime. But he will have to do and say more, especially if or when the economy slows and unemployment rises.
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The only reason why immigration is not a vote mover is simply because the electorate is not fool enough to believe that anybody is really going to do anything about it!
Who is going to throw out convicted foreigners or bogus and therefore fraudulent asylum seekers, and risk losing the vote of 1 million ethnic minority (now majority) voters?
Elisa, Napoli, Italy
The reason that the Government insists that Immigration is good for us, is that they are either too useless or too scared to do anything about it.
A. Taylor, Nottingham, UK
The issue of Mass Immigration is of major concern, the betrayal of the white working classes by Labour is a disgrace, and I as a Labour voter will never vote for them again, they are pushing people to the extremes, as only the BNP tell the truth about what is going on!
The sheer arrogance of Brown in dismissing the Lord's report is unbelievable, most people with half a brain already knew that there was no economic benefit except for the very rich, making more profit from cheap labour, and a huge negative affect on community cohesion, over-population, housing, health and public services.
The real issue is the fact of mass immigrants from Africa and Asia with totally different cultures, values and religion to us who do not want to integrate into our community.
The numbers are far too great to absorb, even though the immigrants have been encouraged by the treachery of Nu Liebour loonies to be seperate and do their own thing under the hideous guise of multiculturism.
Mark Haynes, Manchester, Lancashire
When immigration becomes a serious problem and vote mover, it will be way too late to do anything about it. Indeed, it is probably too late now - which is probably why nothing is being done.
Voters are notoriously selfish, and it needs enough of them to be painfully affected before they will react. Up to that point they will bumble along, looking sideways at the others to see if they are going to say something first.
The mystery is, though, why so many people want to come to such a third rate country as the UK, with its high prices and taxes, ever lower quality of services and a total absence of useful manufacturing.
Mike Poulsen, Reading, Berkshire
Pundits and politicians fail to realise that polls don't count on this: we are all trained to tick the politically correct boxes on this, or be branded as 'racists'.
Beware you pollsters, there really is a deep sense of wrong about this mass repopulation of England and the cracks and pressures it is causing to social fabric.
Most people don't like it, and want proper training for our youth to become well paid plumbers etc, rather than be ushered into asbos and the benefit culture.
And the 'marriage' route into the UK is a scam and a cruel practice, begun by Labour abolishing the primary purpose rule.
Tom, Wantage, UK
'Mentions of asylum seekers have dropped'...why? It's racist to mention it. Labour has cleverly diverted migration talk towards plumbers, not people who do not practice birth control nor speak the language nor want to integrate at all.
Fati, Dalston, UK
When immigration becomes a serious problem and vote mover, it will be way too late to do anything about it. Indeed, it is probably too late now - which is probably why nothing is being done.
Voters are notoriously selfish, and it needs enough of them to be painfully affected before they will react. Up to that point they will bumble along, looking sideways at the others to see if they are going to say something first.
The mystery is, though, why so many people want to come to such a third rate country as the UK, with its high prices and taxes, ever lower quality of services and a total absence of useful manufacturing.
Mike Poulsen, Reading, Berkshire
Immigration has earned a symbolism rather tlike the EU constitution. The public are convinced that the political classes (and some political commentators like Peter Riddell) are determined to insist that they know what's best - whether it's an unwanted nanny state in health and safety, or an unwanted free-for-all in late night drinking - and just won't listen. Much of the fear of immigration is not so much economic as a fear of changing the character and fabric of the country... people still idealise the country with thoughts of warm beer, cricket on the green, church bells, cycling to evensong , and the britannia on the reverse of our coins etc. The presence of majorities in our inner cities of people looking different from ourselves is a visible sign and reminer that the nature of the country is being chased away by multi-culturalism and political correctness.
As you say, it's 'code' for a wider malaise. It may just be a dog-whistle but the politicos would do well to listen.
Philippa Pirie, london, england
I wish you were right, but I'm afraid I'm quite certain that you aren't.
edward green, Upminster, England
I can't agree with the gist of this article. I and many friends (including a GP) have come to the conclusion that Lib-Lab-Con is essentially one Party more concerned with sustaining itself as a political entity (i.e career politics) than it is in concerning itself with the 'national interest'. Any vote for them is now a wasted vote. I and many others will become persistent BNP voters from now on. It's called voting habits, and voting habits are changing.
Paul Williams , Egham, UK
The problem behind these statistics : many of us have been wanted to express pro BNP views, but not to anyone looking vaguely official . That's why it is a talking point amongst mates at work, friends and family and not someone in a suit who might be "Thought Police".
What this reflects is the unsustainable amount of external control needed to keep a lid on things in the UK.
Johnd., leeds, England