Peter Riddell: Analysis
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This is the tale of a Scottish politician who waited a long time for power, and who has relished the opportunity when it finally came last year. This could, perhaps should, have been Gordon Brown, but is, in fact, Alex Salmond, the real political success story of the past year. While the Brown political honeymoon was stopped in its tracks less than ten weeks after he entered 10 Downing Street, Mr Salmond’s is continuing.
At Westminster it is hard to pick any unqualified winners: in the Brown Cabinet even the rising stars can point only to potential rather than achievement. On the Tory side, David Cameron has made further solid progress, rather than a big leap forward, and George Osborne has perhaps made the biggest advance. As for the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg won, just, but still has all to prove. Peter Robinson, yesterday elected as Democratic Unionist leader and First Minister designate in Northern Ireland, in succession to Ian Paisley, has also been a winner, along with Martin McGuinness.
But Mr Salmond has been the most adroit politician, managing to retain the initiative despite being in a minority with just 47 seats out of 129 in Edinburgh. One result has been that, according to Scottish voting intention polls, the SNP has improved its position against Labour compared with a year ago.
This success reflects both Mr Salmond’s personal appeal and the SNP administration’s ability to show that it is in control. In a mirror image of Mr Brown’s problems, 70 per cent of Scottish voters think that Mr Salmond is doing a good job as First Minister and just 17 per cent a bad one. As Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, recently noted: “As for Salmond, the guy is charismatic, a triple-A politician. He provides that crucial sense of credibility, the idea that the SNP might be able to run the government.” The latter is crucial.
Being treated like an administration is half the battle, even in a minority.
Mr Salmond and his team, including John Swinney, the Finance Minister, have also shown considerable tactical skill with populist measures such as freezing council tax and, above all, securing approval of a budget thanks to a deal with the Tories. The SNP has been able to outflank Labour, which is still recovering from its defeat.
The SNP’s minority position is double-edged. It has a platform without the expectations of full power. But there are also strict limits in which it has to operate, notably over the question of independence, the subject of a “national conversation”.
Even here, the SNP’s victory a year ago has forced the three main Unionist parties to respond with the creation of a cross-party, cross-border commission to review the devolution settlement under Sir Kenneth Calman. This is likely to lead to changes strengthening the Scottish Parliament.
The contrast with events in London could not be more striking. Mr Salmond’s many critics regard him as opportunistic, which is another way of saying that he is a smart, instinctive politician. That is why Mr Salmond so irritates his fellow Scot, Mr Brown, who must wish for his poll ratings.
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