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From The Sunday Times
April 20, 2008

Nigel Lawson loses no sleep over global warming

Nigel Lawson, the Iron Lady’s chancellor, scourge of the miners and father of the adorable Nigella, has joined the ranks of the climate change sceptics. He believes David Cameron’s green agenda is overblown, biofuels are useless and carbon trading resembles ‘nothing so much as the sale of indulgences by the medieval church’

Nigel Lawson in Eaton Square
John-Paul Flintoff meets Nigel Lawson

I can’t pretend I’m expecting to get on with Nigel Lawson. In fact, I’m worried that I might lose my cool – say something I’ll regret, perhaps even bop him on the nose.

On receiving his new book, An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming, I find myself handling it as though it is toxic; I even flinch at the expression of fierce intellectual arrogance in the author’s photograph.

When I start reading, though, I’m dismayed to discover that I agree with considerable amounts of what Lawson is saying – especially about the current biofuel madness – while also disagreeing with other chunks.

As energy minister under Margaret Thatcher, Lawson masterminded the war against the miners, and as chancellor of the exchequer he launched a series of controversial privatisations and deregulated financial services. Lately, he’s raised my blood pressure even further by pooh-poohing the idea of climate change and resisting any attempt to address what most people accept as a pressing reality. In fact, according to the Lawson view, I – like many others – am a deluded fool for growing food in the garden, cycling everywhere, flushing the minimum possible amount of water down the loo (using an Interflush), and generally making do and mending when things fall apart.

Still, it’s hard to disagree with him about biofuels, on which new European Union regulations came into effect last week, requiring petrol to contain at least 2.5% biofuel, a figure that will increase in future.

“Biofuels,” he says, “have become one of the European Union’s latest fads. It’s far from clear that ethanol produces more energy than is used in its own production. In the second place, it requires a vast amount of land to produce a relatively small amount of ethanol. This not only antagonises environmentalists, upset by the destruction of rainforests for this purpose, but has also led to a marked rise in food prices – in particular the price of grain.”

Last year the Chinese government suspended its production of ethanol for precisely this reason. Now dozens of other countries that are experiencing grave food shortages must wish more would do the same.

In person, Lawson appears less intimidating than his photo. Though no longer startlingly thin – his weight loss, some years ago, gave him the unexpected opportunity to become a bestselling diet guru – he’s by no means fat. And instead of scowling, he twinkles, disarmingly.

We meet at the glamorous home of his daughter, the TV cook Nigella, and her husband Charles Saatchi, the adman turned art collector. Lawson himself now lives in France. Sinister lifelike sculptures – an old codger, a woman pushing a pram – loiter in the hall and on the stairs. Among the many other artworks are several large pots by Grayson Perry.

To begin with, I tell Lawson I’m glad somebody of his background has made absolutely clear the uselessness of biofuels, carbon trading (“it has done nothing to reduce emissions, merely awarded subsidies to selected emitters”), and carbon offsetting (“a scam . . . it resembles nothing so much as the sale of indulgences by the medieval church”).

If we seriously wanted to reduce emissions, he says, we’d have to impose a carbon tax across the board – but this government lacks the confidence to do that. Not that he’s bothered about emissions, anyway. And so we come to climate change . . . or we would, but Lawson thinks the term is specious: it was only adopted, he says, because recent evidence suggests that global warming has almost stopped.

Well, his own party deserves much of the credit, or blame, I say, for pushing green issues up the agenda. The Tories have even swapped their old logo, a burning torch, for a green tree.

“David Cameron has gone overboard,” Lawson says. “I can understand some of the motivation. He was clearly engaging in rebranding the Conservative party because the old brand would not sell. But I suspect he may believe in it.”

True belief, he seems to imply, may be worse than cynical rebranding.

“I think [Cameron’s emphasis on green issues] is completely mistaken. I don’t think he has thought through the consequences.”

After serving on a House of Lords committee investigating the economics of global warming, Lawson himself concluded that the science behind it was not as certain as many people believe, and that the measures being taken to address the warming of the globe are economically damaging.

Then he wrote his book. “But despite being promoted by an outstanding literary agent,” he says, “the book was rejected by every British publisher to whom it was submitted – and there were a considerable number of them.” (It went to an American-owned publisher in the end.) The problem, Lawson believes, was that “to question global warming is regarded as sacrilege”. He gives a faint snort. “I hate intolerance. The only thing I won’t tolerate is intolerance.”

Taking this as a cue, I ask why his book overlooks the likelihood that oil may be approaching a terminal peak in supply. If, as most scientists believe, warming is caused by CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels, surely he should have tackled this important issue?

“People have been talking about ‘peak oil’ for as long as I can remember,” Lawson says, with a sniff. “It’s not going to happen in the foreseeable future.”

Hang on a minute. The Hirsch report, commissioned by the US Department of Energy, concluded that we need to prepare for the likelihood of oil shortages at least two decades in advance. And President George Bush, challenged recently to ask the Saudis to pump more oil for the US, replied that they may not have the capacity to pump more. Lawson is unfazed. “They’ve got plenty,” he says.

End of argument. How can he possibly know this? Saudi oil reserves are not independently audited. But Lawson has a kind of lofty certitude in such matters.

Predictably, he is a big supporter of nuclear energy. Yet experts point out that if we try to match the world’s current energy requirements using nuclear power alone, we’ll run out of uranium in little more than a decade. Lawson ripostes, perhaps rightly, that uranium prospecting has never been carried out properly, so there’s probably much more out there. Even so, nuclear energy is still only a relatively short-term solution, and fraught with political problems.

I move on – to the future of the human race. In his book, Lawson states: “We care about our children and our grandchildren, but we do not normally lose sleep over the welfare of our grandchildren’s putative grandchildren.” Thus, it would be wrong to expect the present generation to make sacrifices for people who may or may not live hundreds or thousands of years hence.

But surely, Lord Lawson, if we aim for a way of living that is truly sustainable – if we leave the world as we find it – then not only our own children but every succeeding generation would benefit? And one way we might do this would be to switch to a monetary and economic system that doesn’t require constant growth.

“There’s nothing unsustainable about the way we do things now,” says Lawson. There is a pause.

I’m stumped. Every economist and businessman distinguishes between capital and income, I say. And by burning up fossil fuels, we’re spending nature’s capital, with no hope of replenishing it. To this Lawson has no answer.

For all his talk about bravely tackling orthodoxy, he remains wedded to a powerful orthodoxy of his own: mainstream economics. His arguments against tackling global warming come back again and again to the idea that globalisation, and economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product per head, are fundamentally necessary and even inevitable.

Yet people around the world are rioting as food becomes unaffordable. In part, this is because land has been sacrificed to growing biofuels, but it’s also down to the demands of global trade. Wouldn’t Kenyans, for example, be better off growing food for themselves, rather than mangetout for supermarkets?

He looks stern. “I know a lot about Kenya. The people of Kenya benefit from being able to sell their produce to markets in the West. Hugely.”

My time is nearly up. I argue that we will reduce emissions – and save valuable energy supplies – if we consume what we produce ourselves, instead of relying on international trade. Of course, this may result in a lower GDP, but is that necessarily so bad? I get nowhere, so I tell him a joke about two economists who challenge each other to eat a pile of dog excrement for £20,000 a go. Having both done this, and rendered themselves precisely no better off than before, they pat each other on the back. Why? Because they’ve increased GDP.

I’m rather pleased with this satirical critique. But Lawson doesn’t laugh.

“You are quite right that GDP is imperfect,” he says, his face assuming the all-powerful expression captured on his book jacket. “But it’s less imperfect than all the other things that have been tried. GDP per head, as a measure of prosperity, over the long run, goes up with consumption per head. And what people consume is generally what they want to consume. They don’t consume dog s***.”

An Appeal to Reason is published by Duckworth, £9.99

How can anyone not see that the case for energy conservation and the case for man made global warming are nothing to do with each other? CO2 as a cause of climate changes is based on shoddy science only passable to others who do not wish to see the flaws. Energy efficiency is sense.

D Cage, Highworth, Wilts

Lawson never answers the important questions -as above regarding the question of sustainability. If your in the red for long enough you go bust, and if you consume more than you produce then eventually you will run out of things, Nigel didn't listen in class and his opions are for the gullible only!

colin bannon, plymouth, uk

We have plenty of oil, we've just lost the will to drill for it! In the U.S. Democrats have made accessing this vital natural resource a CRIME! It's not oil we're near running out of, it's will.

Bobbie Martin, New York City, US

If, over time, you spend more than you earn then you are heading for financial disaster. Nigel Lawson did this as Chancellor but got out before Black Wednesday.

We are 'spending' more resources than we are generating. But as we head for disaster people like Lawson are still advocating spending.

Alan Davidson, Bournemouth,

If, over time, you spend more than you earn then you are heading for financial disaster. Nigel Lawson did this as Chancellor but got out before Black Wednesday.

We are 'spending' more resources than we are generating. But as we head for disaster people like Lawson are still advocating spending.

Alan Davidson, Bournemouth,

Is it asking too much to hope that people might give rather greater credence to the conclusions of the world's leading scientists on matters of science, as opposed to the prejudices of a former politician with no scientific training whatsoever? Jesus wept.

Clive , Devizes, Wiltshire

I am amazed at the number of people unaware that Gore's film has been subjected to a High Court Challenge
It should not be shown in schools without the guidance from the High Court Without this it is said to be political indoctrination and contravening he Education Acts

Elizabeth Mann, Darlingtom, ENGLAND

so what are we going to do when the oil runs out?

samarius, Leeds,

The fuel resources may be running low, but one thing we do have in abundance is imagination. If we took all the scientists out of the global warming industry and set them to work on new forms of power generation, such as nuclear fusion, we can stop plotting our own downfall.

Alan, sSouthampton, Great Britain

I agree that global warming is a myth.
http://www.aapsonline.org/newsoftheday/0026
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/03/24/lorne-gunter-perhaps-the-climate-change-models-are-wrong.aspx
The peak oil myth is clearly set out if anyone wishes to reasearch this - google it

Paul Jenkins, Loughborough, England

I have just read Nigel Lawson's global warming book and agree with almost every word. Global warming is a subject which TV presenters and blondes in pubs like to talk about. It is also a good topic for politicians as they will never be found out about it. The history of science is ridled with lies.

Vic Tann, Warrington, UK

Politicians can do nothing much about climate change - even if they really wanted to. The arguments are on the SeeRed website based in Sidmouth. It is arguable that natural systems are approaching collapse - and in these conditions any climate shift may prove very damaging.

stephen wozniak, sidmouth, uk

The world has a finite oil supply, uranium ore supply and so on. What capital we have that is inexhaustible is our ingenuity. Seemingly this has no limits... Example abound.

We ran out of wood. Coal fired the industrial revolution.
We needed a fuel for transport. Oil came to the rescue.
We will run out of oil but the world will not end, just our technology will adjust.

We need to have more faith in ourselves instead of whipping our backs with guilt and fear.

Ray, Mendrisio, Switzerland

People consume what they desire not what is good for them - or the planet. Living in a developing country where nearly everyone smiles is proof enough that GDP is floored as a measure of prosperity. Unfortunately as consumerism takes it's hold, l'm beginning to see less happiness and more greed.

R J RHODES, Chiang Mai, Thailand

The fundamental cause of the rapid increase in climate change is the even more rapid increase in world population. Until politicians have the courage to tackle this problem, any target we set for reducing carbon emissions is futile. We need: 1. to have a campaign to increase facilities for birth control in those countries where the population increase is fastest. 2. Wage a campaign to persuade people that having no more than two children is best for the future of our planet.
If politicians do not take action, we may bring about the destruction of human life -- unless matters are taken out of our hands by war and famine.
Netta Goldsmith










Netta Goldsmith, Tunbridge Wells, Kent

I have a lot of respect for Nigel Lawson. He has studied the subject in depth for many years. Although not a science expert he has listened to weeks of evidence from scientists while sitting on the House of Lords Select Committee on the Economics of Climate Change.

He has been trying to bang some common sense into his Westminter colleagues not to commit untold billions to tilting at windmills. Although many MP's agree wholeheartedly with him, they will not admit it, as it is 'convenient' not to. It is to be regretted that politicians, through the UN, instructed their eco advisors to put together a science team (IPCC) to examine whether man-made CO2 and other emissions were causing any change to the climate.

It is no surprise that these new scientists found 'unequivocal evidence' of 'dangerous' global warming, while minimising blatently obvious evidence of wide natural variations in CO2 led first by temperature change.

Science is not the domain of politics

Richard , Rye, UK

It is about time some people started pointing out that climate change is effectively a total fraud. I was beginning to lose all hope in the media, thank you Times for having the balls to stand up. You will be remembered as a first when the climate change fraud is finally disrobed.

Edward, London,

You did a great job with this interview. The GDP argument as well as your points on resource depletion where spot on.

Jim, NYC,

Pete Best, Northampton, UK
I don’t suppose you are aware that the last time the Earth experienced the current low level of CO2 and temperature we were just entering an Ice Age. That was at the end of the Carboniferous and the start of the Permian Period.

Take a look at this web site : -
www
.geocraft.com/
WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

If you study the graph “Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time” you will note there have only been two short periods in the last 600million years when atmospheric CO2 levels have been as LOW as today. Compared to the “normal” levels of CO2 our atmosphere of today is CO2 impoverished.

Sanny, Glasgow, Scotland

Has anybody read the NIPCC report? The proper report without governments meddling? It seems the Global Warming hysteria is coming to an end. IF GW is so 'dramatic' then will someone please show me some evidence?

Henry, London,

Hansen is NOT the person to be taking lessons from. His rantings were rejected by the US Congressional Inquiry, and The House of Lords Select Committe.
The Stern report following the line of Hansen's hysteria was little better than a doctored Weapons of mass destruction report, thoroughly discredited for both its economics and poor science dependence.
Gore's film is lamentable nonsense, its a pity that so few bother even to look at his skewed data presentation. His claim of consensus is simply untrue. There is no certainty in climate prediction or weather for that matter.
Panic about General Circulation Models findings is unfortunate. Many of the modellers will not let anyone else look at their calculations. At the end of the day they are guesstimates and not fact! Clouds are over this island every day, but cloud math and physics are very poorly understood. Cloud at different levels in the atmosphere can warm or cool. No one predicted this temp flattening! Computer astrology!

Danny, Manchester, UK

Oh no, not more anti climate science ranting from a man with not knowledge of the subject matter whatsoever. If the Times were to interview Dr James Hansen regarding the latest research (post IPCC) on the nature of climate they may finally understand what David Cameron and Al Gore are going on about. We are already over our Co2 threshold for some serious warming and waut for it within 35 years its all gonna be a bit too late to save the ice caps and bring about (this is long term by the way) the most alarming sea level rises for hundreds of millions of people and industry posted around the globes coastlines.

A more doubling of long term climate sensitivity from 3 to 6C is nothing to be happy about as Dr Hansen is claiming his latest work and has been cautious backing by real climate (GISS).

The climate science community are now telling us what it really will be like and not how the political process would like to tell us.

Pete Best, Northampton, UK

"Lawson is becoming the Al Gore of the thinking people who question the current orthodoxy. We need a champion to mobilise the resistance against the pressure of political correctness."

I couldn't put it better.

Chris Garrett, Brighton, England

Don't worry folks we'll have fusion power in 30 years...oh hang on they said that 30 years ago. Shame you think GDP is important Nige, considering that your misguided economic policies reduced it. Good to know the world has an infinite supply of oil too, oddly enough Britain doesn't...but you did use the revenues to set up a fund for when the oil runs out didn't you...didn't you? Ahhh I'm just kiddin with ya Nige you're a great guy

Gareth White, St Helens, UK

Thank God someone is willing to stand up and be counted on this. Good on Lawson.

judy, Liverpool, England

I am sure we are all very grateful that the well-known climatologist, biologist and environmental research scientist Nigel Lawson has honoured us with his views. You hear much of the same opinions from Joseph Bloggs (retired greengrocer) of Little Muddleton and his like who write regularly in weekly local papers pontificating from their deep knowledge of the subject of climate change. Why do we need to ask 'celebrities' their views on subjects which are so far removed from the reason for their celebrity?

Noel Thompson, Tavistock,

I like Lawson. He knows more than most about the true science of man-made climate change, since he did throw millions of the tax payers money at scientists to get them to come back and say that CO2 is bad, just so Maggie could get nuclear power.

Chjris Toms, Basingstoke, Hampshire

Lawson is becoming the Al Gore of the thinking people who question the current orthodoxy. We need a champion to mobilise the resistance against the pressure of political correctness

David Cartright, Birmingham,

Thorium can also be used for nuclear power and it is as common as lead.

Mick, berkeley, US, CA

Oh and the Kenyans could certainly just grow for Kenya. They would be as prosperous and well fed as all the other awesome experiments in economic autarky in human history.

Mick, Berkeley, US, CA

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