GORDON BROWN’S best hope for salvaging some comfort from the May 1 elections - a victory for Ken Livingstone in the London mayoral race - is touch and go, according to a poll for The Sunday Times.

The telephone survey of 1,000 Londoners, carried out by the polling company Mruk Cello, shows that the big leads enjoyed in recent weeks by Boris Johnson, Livingstone’s Tory challenger, may have evaporated.

When voters were asked who they would back in the mayoral race, Livingstone enjoyed a lead over Johnson, 45% to 44%, with Brian Paddick, the former deputy assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan police, in a distant third place for the Liberal Democrats on 9%.

The frontrunners were even closer when second preferences were taken into account and other candidates eliminated.

Under the London election system, voters are allowed two choices. The lowest-scoring candidates are eliminated and the second preferences of those who voted for them are then taken into consideration.

More than a quarter of those questioned, 26%, said they had yet to decide, suggesting there was a lot to play for in the remaining 10 days of campaigning.

“Turnout looks like the key - Ken can win if his natural followers make it to the polling booth, whereas the support for Boris seems slightly more solid in terms of likelihood to vote,” said Ivor Knox, a director of Mruk research.

Other poll details offered more comfort to Livingstone than Johnson, however. Among poll respondents likely to vote, the spate of recent stories about cronyism and improper use of public funds by the mayor’s advisers have failed to give Johnson a decisive lead on honesty: he was just a point ahead by 35% to 34%.

Livingstone’s experience after two terms as mayor stands him in good stead on the question of strong leadership, where he leads Johnson by 52% to 28%. The Tory’s decision to campaign hard on public transport is not so far paying dividends; he trails Livingstone by 47% to 31% on the issue. The incumbent is also trusted more on housing, where he leads by 39% to 28%.

Only on crime, where he is ahead by 38% to 32%, does Johnson enjoy a significant lead.

One of the Conservatives’ fears, that their candidate is not regarded as serious, is partly borne out by the poll, with nearly a third of respondents, 31%, saying they could never vote for him on those grounds, more than the 28% who think he will make a good mayor. However, 19% said they would favour an “anybody but Ken” candidate.

Livingstone’s main worry, that he will be a victim of “time for a change” sentiment, is also supported by the poll. While 62% think he has been a good mayor, nearly half of these, 28% of the total, think it is time for him to go. A further 23% say he has been a bad mayor and should go.

The poll comes as an analysis for The Sunday Times by professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University’s elections centre shows that Labour will struggle even to match Tony Blair’s poor performance in the local government elections of four years ago. The government then was suffering a severe backlash over the Iraq war.

“For Labour in particular the omens are not good,” the analysis says. “The party is currently averaging about 32% in the opinion polls compared with 36% four years ago.

“The survey of local government by-election results shows Labour trailing badly in third place with a national equivalent vote of just 25%. That is a drop of three percentage points since the same point in the previous electoral cycle in 2004.”

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