Is this Labour’s “poll tax” moment?

Although there are losers, the effect on individuals is nothing like as dramatic as the replacement of rates with the community charge. Nevertheless, Labour MPs joining a growing rebellion report deep anger among the party’s core voters.

Who are the rebels?

Critics are drawn from almost all quarters of the Parliamentary Labour Party: Blairites joining left-wingers; those in marginal seats making common cause with MPs from Labour’s heartlands. The most vocal opponent is Frank Field, the former Welfare Minister. He is too divisive a figure to lead a serious rebellion, however.

How much of this is about Gordon Brown?

Quite a bit. It was his refusal to acknowledge that there was an issue over the 10p rate at a meeting of the PLP two weeks ago that propelled the issue to the top of the agenda. Friends concede that his unwillingness to admit the problem has hampered efforts to contain the rebellion. One Blairite former Cabinet minister is blamed for leaking the news that Angela Smith, a Treasury parliamentary private secretary, was considering resigning.

Will the Government lose the vote?

It has a week to save what would be the most embarrassing defeat suffered by Labour since it came to power in 1997. Suggestions that the key vote — slated for a week today — could be put off until after local elections on May 1 are dismissed by Labour whips. Ministers hope that promises for help in future years and threats of the electoral consequences will head off disaster. What will the Tories do?

They are committed to opposing the abolition but will not say whether they would reinstate it. The issue is not straightfoward for George Osborne as he seeks to exploit the Government’s current difficulties without risking the Tories’ newly recovered reputation for economic competence.

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