Few people outside the Westminster village will have heard of the
parliamentary committee of the Labour party. This weekly gathering of
cabinet ministers, including the prime minister, and senior backbenchers is
the forum where party issues deemed too controversial to be aired publicly
are discussed in private.
Last week the committee gave Gordon Brown an extraordinary warning: that he
had become the victim of a plot orchestrated by diehard supporters of Tony
Blair.
The members assembled in Brown’s oak-panelled Commons office on Wednesday
afternoon, shortly after the prime minister’s spectacular U-turn when he
promised to compensate those who had lost out from the abolition of the 10p
income tax band.
Among those present were Brown’s most trusted lieutenants — Geoff Hoon, the
chief whip, Douglas Alexander, the international development secretary, and
Ed Miliband, the Cabinet Office minister.
Brown said little — he was still licking his wounds from the mauling he had
suffered at the hands of David Cameron, the Tory leader, during prime
minister’s questions. His ministers danced around the subject of the tax
climbdown, anxious not to hurt a bruised prime ministerial ego.
Then Kevan Jones, backbench MP for Durham North, interrupted. “Why don’t you
all get to the point?” said the Geordie former trade union official. “The
fact of the matter is people had genuine concerns but ministers didn’t
engage with the parliamentary Labour party.”
He went on to make the sensational allegation that there had been an
orchestrated attempt to undermine Brown: “We cannot ignore that we have the
rump of the Blairites stirring things up.”
In a highly unusual move, Jones went on to name two former ministers he
claimed had indulged in tea-room plotting: Hilary Armstrong, the former
chief whip, and Charles Clarke, the former home secretary. “Somebody has got
to face them down. It is irritating a lot of backbenchers,” he said.
Don Touhig, the former defence minister, nodded vigorously: “I agree with all
that.”
As Brown contemplates his first test at the ballot box as prime minister —
with the London mayoralty and hundreds of council seats up for grabs on
Thursday — more internecine strife is the last thing he needs.
The past week has been one that the prime minister probably wishes had never
happened. As well as the 10p tax U-turn, there were signs that another
Commons rebellion was gathering pace. Up to 40 backbenchers are threatening
to vote against the government on new legislation allowing the detention of
terrorist suspects without charge for up to 42 days. An opinion poll put the
Tories 18 points ahead of Labour — the widest gap in more than two decades.
A wave of industrial action closed hundreds of schools and shut the
Grangemouth oil refinery.
Today’s revelation in this newspaper that Jacqui Smith, the home secretary,
has prepared the ground for yet another U-turn, on the 42-day bill, will not
help perceptions of Brown’s authority, or lack of it.
Nor will the comments of Lord Levy, Tony Blair’s chief fundraiser, whose
memoirs are serialised in a newspaper today: “I am saddened to see that
somehow there does not appear to be that strong leadership that the Labour
party so desperately needs.” Levy goes on to claim that Blair himself also
believes Brown will lose to the resurgent Tories: “Gordon? ‘He can’t defeat
Cameron,’ Tony told me.”
A further poll in today’s News of the World of key marginals suggested that if
a general election were held now Cameron would win a 64-seat majority and
Labour would lose more than 130 MPs.
It is an inauspicious backdrop to May 1’s crucial elections, which could
result in the Tory challenger Boris Johnson unseating Labour’s Ken
Livingstone as London’s mayor and the loss of up to 150 council seats
elsewhere in England and Wales.
How have the past few days gone so wrong for Brown? Will Labour’s woes deepen
and what clues will the local ballots offer to the next general election?
A WEEK ago, as the prime minister flew home from his visit to the United
States, he was in no mood for compromise with the 10p tax rebels.
Crossing the Atlantic on his chartered jet, he faced down senior broadcast
journalists who pointed out that the tax measure would penalise millions of
low-paid workers and pensioners. “You’re wrong. No one will lose out. Come
on, you guys have exaggerated it all,” Brown said.
When Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, insisted there was a sizable
Labour revolt, the prime minister was adamant: “No, there isn’t. There are
just one or two MPs asking questions.”
Over the weekend high-ranking aides including Stephen Carter, his senior
political adviser, urged the intransigent prime minister to think again. The
whips were reporting that a hostile amendment to the budget bill tabled by
Frank Field, the thoughtful Labour backbencher, could succeed unless
concessions were made.
By Monday, Brown’s tone had changed dramatically. Attending a packed meeting
of Labour backbenchers, he listened patiently as MP after MP relayed the
discontent they had found on the doorstep. Finally a chastened Brown told
the room: “I get it.”
The U-turn Brown promised he would never make was now going to happen. The
only questions were about the terms of surrender. On Tuesday evening he met
Field in secret. The offer came through gritted teeth: the young childless
workers who were due to lose out with the abolition of the 10p starting rate
would be compensated with extra tax credits. Pensioners aged between 60 and
64 were to be bribed with higher winter fuel payments.
Even with the announcement that Brown had indeed done the deal came problems.
Yvette Cooper, chief secretary to the Treasury, seemed unsure as to what had
been agreed when she appeared on BBC2’s Newsnight and a series of economists
lined up to doubt the government’s sums on how much the U-turn would cost.
The contrast with the high days of Blair’s premiership was only accentuated by
the presence of the former prime minister at Westminster on Wednesday at a
private unveiling of an official portrait, his first visit since stepping
down last June.
Someone joked that the painting made Blair look “exhausted”, according to one
of those present. “But that is what the job is like,” Blair retorted with a
curl of the mouth that suggested he might have been commiserating with his
frazzled successor. But were his allies, as Jones alleged, secretly plotting
against Brown?
Certainly a number of leading rebels were former ministers who resented the
way Brown’s henchmen had forced Blair to quit early. Janet Anderson, George
Howarth and Greg Pope all served loyally in the old regime. However, their
leader, Field, was no friend of Blair either and even Geoffrey Robinson, one
of Brown’s oldest political allies, lined up with the insurgents.
Yet the sense of old divisions being reopened was there. One Brownite MP said:
“There was no doubt \ was a source of deep concern. However, there were a
number of Gordon’s enemies who had no real interest in the issues who saw
this as a way of damaging his authority.”
Pope, who drew up the Commons early-day motion that helped to bump-start the
rebellion, described talk of Blairite plots as “laughable” and attacked what
he sees as the paranoia of Brown’s inner circle.
“There are one or two people around Gordon who are in a bunker,” he said.
“They need to see the real world. This has not been some sort of Blairite
plot. I represent the town of Accrington, where many people have been
affected by the 10p issue. I have had a lot of people coming to see me and
it is the job of an MP to represent constituents’ concerns.”
The immediate problem for Brown and his increasingly fractious party is that
they are having to face those very constituents in key battles this week.
AMONG the many contests in this week’s elections, it will be the London
mayoral race that will be watched most keenly.
The capital has always been a good indicator of future polls. Governing
parties that lose heavily in local elections in London tend to be defeated
in the next general election. In the late 1970s a revived Tory party retook
London from Labour before Margaret Thatcher romped to victory in 1979.
Similarly in 1994, John Major’s Conservatives catastrophically lost eight
London boroughs, a premonition of the general election rout of 1997.
Having held his nose and embraced his former enemy Livingstone, Brown would be
left bloodied by a Johnson victory. With the SNP leading the Scottish
executive, he would be left facing opponents in power in two key areas of
the UK.
The election is, however, just as much a test for Cameron and his team as it
is for Labour. With some opinion polls having given Johnson double-digit
leads in recent months — although our poll today suggests the result is too
close to call — corruption allegations surrounding Livingstone’s cronies and
the government in such disarray, a defeat would be hard to shrug off. If the
Conservatives cannot win in London with all these advantages, how will they
ever be able to carry the country?
With the stakes so high, the Tories are using their new strategy of
“micro-targeting”, focusing their efforts on key groups of voters using
market research data. It is a policy being used not just in London but
across the country.
Party strategists have identified four archetypes based on popular television
programmes to help them target swing voters. These include “Holby City
worker”, a middle-ranking health service employee; “Top Gear man”, who is
angry with Labour’s petty bureaucracy; the “Apprentice generation”, young
professionals coming to terms with political and financial reality; and
finally the “Grand Designs couple”, the young aspirational family pursuing
an ethical lifestyle.
All are felt to be amenable to the Tories, whether or not they have voted for
the party before.
Oddly, in a campaign in which the two main contenders are so famous that they
are known almost universally by their first names, the result will depend on
the work of the party machines. As one Tory activist campaigning in
true-blue Kensington and Chelsea put it: “The whole of London is a marginal
ward.” Turnout will be key.
Victory for the Tories hinges on motivating voters in the outer London
boroughs, which resemble a doughnut on an electoral map. Historically they
have not bothered with the mayoral elections.
Bexleyheath, where London meets the Kent green belt, is being heavily
targeted. James Cleverly, candidate for the London assembly, claimed that
traditional Conservative issues, such as council tax, dominated debate on
the doorsteps. On Friday afternoon he was marching up and down the streets
posting leaflet after leaflet: “I’ve got through a lot of shoe leather.”
He said the “doughnut” strategy had been overplayed but “we are making sure we
cover the whole of London this time. You’d be crazy not to focus firepower
on this sort of area”.
Cleverly was on Cameron’s A list of preferred candidates before he was
selected to stand in Bexley and Bromley and looks and sounds a true Cameroon
— he is good-looking and black. People recognise him and come up to ask him
questions. Ben Medley, a plumber, wanted to know why money from London was
going to Scotland. “Boris is going to change that,” Cleverly said.
Medley said he had not voted before but was thinking about the fringe English
Democrat party. Cleverly chased him for his second-preference vote — as
neither leading candidate is expected to get more than 50% of the
first-preference votes, electors’ second choices are likely to prove
decisive — and was delighted as he walked away. “He didn’t vote last time,
but he’s going to this time. It’s changing,” he said.
Labour also has a turnout challenge. For Livingstone a third term is dependent
on getting his core supporters — principally working-class and ethnic
minority voters in inner London — to the polling booths. Typical of the
Labour foot soldiers is Sir Steve Bullock, the mayor of Lewisham, who was
heading off last week around a council estate in Deptford, one of the most
deprived constituencies in Britain, with a small team.
This ward had a turnout of about 30% at the last local election and Labour
needs to get numbers up. Bullock started in Fulcher House, an unlovely
low-rise council block with peeling paint and bleak stairwells. The
residents voiced their disaffection with Livingstone. “He has had eight
years,” said one. “And it is scary living here.”
Bullock’s team reeled off the differences Livingstone had made to the
residents’ lives, but too many of them have not voted in the past, are not
registered to vote now and cannot see any improvements. “What about the
local police who can’t be taken away from your area, the safer neighbourhood
scheme, the buses?”
“What about them?” the response came back flatly.
A remarkable absence of election posters in people’s homes throughout the
capital suggests such apathy is widespread. The winner will have activists
to thank for driving the decisive votes to the polls on Thursday.
WHILE London will garner the lion’s share of the attention, the council
elections in the rest of England and Wales also have a wider significance.
A large proportion of the 30 most marginal Labour parliamentary seats are in
London and the southeast, which means Brown could lose his majority without
the Tories breaking through in the north of England. However, for Cameron to
move into a position where he can form his own administration, he needs to
win dozens of seats in Lancashire, Yorkshire and the industrial Midlands.
Hyndburn, where the sitting Labour MP is Pope, the 10p rebel, will be a key
target. The constituency, where Pope has a 5,587 majority, is centred on the
former mill town of Accrington. It is a classic swing seat, with the town’s
terraces giving way to more affluent Pennine villages. The Conservatives
already have a modest majority on the council, but to demonstrate they still
have momentum they will need to pick off a few more seats on Thursday.
If Cameron wants to win an overall majority at the next general election, he
will have to win the support of people such as Jean Hessey.
The training centre co-ordinator, 40, expresses disappointment with the
government but is still wavering about backing the Tories. “I grew up
supporting Labour; my dad always voted Labour and so did I. I voted for
Blair but I won’t be voting for Brown,” she said. “David Cameron needs a bit
more backbone, but he seems to have good morals and he wants to do the right
thing for people and their families.”
Peter Britcliffe, the Tory council leader, is confident that such voters are
coming his party’s way. “I’ve been out canvassing and the perception in
street after street is that people are sick of this government,” he said.
“Blair was bad but Brown is worse. He seems inept dealing with problems.”
Pope is surprisingly upbeat: “I would not be completely surprised if in
Hyndburn we take a few seats from the Tories. You see, the Cameron effect is
not a national phenomenon. He has had much less impact in the north.”
To judge by the anger of his constituents, Pope would be unwise to be too
relaxed. Lisa Allen, a 42-year-old trainee teacher, said: “I’ve voted Labour
in the past but don’t really like to admit it.” This used to be what voters
said about the Tories in the 1990s.
IF Labour loses, and loses big, on Thursday the whispers about challenges to
Brown’s authority will only grow louder. Party rebels are already regrouping
for the next parliamentary battle over plans to extend the period of
detention for terror suspects.
A survey by The Sunday Times reveals that the rebellion is growing — with at
least five MPs who were previously undecided now planning to vote against
the government.
Austin Mitchell, MP for Great Grimsby, spoke of how Smith had unsuccessfully
tried to talk him round: “It was like an interview with the headmistress. I
felt quite humbled by it but I remained unconvinced by her.”
One MP, who is also a parliamentary private secretary, said he had now decided
to vote against the government: “I am not a ‘usual suspect’ if you look at
my voting record. But my view has always been that I listen to reasonable
argument, and as yet I haven’t heard any argument that is convincing.”
Rooms have already been booked around Westminster for post-election meetings
of Labour think tanks and ginger groups, which are likely to provide forums
for the growing discontent.
John Denham, the hitherto loyal universities secretary, is scheduled to
address the Fabians on the potentially painful subject of “southern
discomfort”. The left-wing Compass group will be holding what promises to be
a boisterous rally, where the issue of a leadership challenge could be
raised.
This is perhaps what has motivated the prime minister to prepare what could be
another embarrassing climbdown. As The Sunday Times reveals today, the home
secretary has been considering plans to allow judges to use “alternatives to
detention”, such as electronic tagging, on those held under the proposed
42-day law.
Brown will have to consider whether the short-term pain of another U-turn is
better than a potential Commons defeat.
Some aides are suggesting that he should order a “night of the long
knives” after this week’s elections, sacking underperforming cabinet
ministers and bringing forward new talent.
Des Browne, the defence secretary, is expecting to move on. He has told the
military top brass to bring forward any awkward announcements so that he can
help to clear the decks for his successor. No 10 sources, however, say that
a reshuffle is unlikely to take place until the summer.
Could Brown be toppled before the next general election? Right now, no serious
candidate is interested in making a challenge.
However, as one veteran backbencher said: “Think how far and how fast we have
fallen since the triumphalism of the party conference last year, when we
appeared to be on the verge of calling an election and defeating the Tories.
Things can still get a lot worse.”
Additional reporting: David Leppard, Brendan Montague, Philip Cardy
Livingstone lead on knife edge
THE Ken v Boris battle in London is a key one for the parties but it is also a
big test for pollsters as the capital’s diverse population is proving hard
to read, writes David Smith.
According to a mayoral poll for The Sunday Times by Mruk Cello today, the
contest is too close to call. On first preferences Ken Livingstone polled
44%, followed by Boris Johnson on 43% and Brian Paddick, the Liberal
Democrat on 9%. When second preferences were assigned, Livingstone got 51%,
Johnson 49%.
Livingstone leads Johnson on strong leadership (53%-26%), public transport
(50%-29%) and housing (39%-27%). Johnson is ahead on crime reduction
(36%-32%). The poll suggests Livingstone is doing better than his party,
Johnson worse. The Tories overall have a nine-point lead among London
voters.
