Graphic: the election battlegrounds

Gordon Brown faces the first electoral test of his premiership today, with Labour chiefs braced for the party’s worst showing at the polls in a generation.

As voting begins across the country, ministers fear the loss of London and scores of council seats as the public casts the first ballots since Mr Brown was anointed Prime Minister and ducked an early general election.

Labour strategists fear that the party could record its lowest share of the vote in local elections since the 1970s, falling as low as 25 per cent and finishing third behind the Tories and Liberal Democrats - a humiliation for Mr Brown.

The Conservatives expect to secure more than 40 per cent, with strong gains in northern England.

The Prime Minister is already planning an aggressive “relaunch” campaign, with new policies, a contrite and listening tone and a fresh attempt to expose divisions with the Conservatives, party sources said. His closest advisers were drawing up plans last night to limit the damage.

In a dramatic first step, Mr Brown has given notice that he will take defeat rather than back down next month over his plan to hold terrorist suspects for up to 42 days. He also began attempts to heal his relations with business by promising the Institute of Directors further cuts in corporation tax when he could afford it. And in an angry Commons clash he called David Cameron a “shallow salesman”.

Government sources say there will be no reshuffle. “We will hit back with substance, not a rearrangement of the furniture,” one said.

Mr Brown is planning to unveil a draft Queen’s Speech at the end of this month to show that he is not running out of steam. It is expected to include measures on welfare, education reforms and involving the community in tackling crime.

In a related development Labour chiefs rushed forward the writ for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, caused by the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody, to be held on May 22. They were accused of acting with “indecent haste” before her funeral. Opposition parties said that Labour was trying to deny them time to organise their campaigns.

The Times has been told that Mr Brown will press ahead with the 42-day plan for holding terrorist suspects even if it means that he is defeated. Tony Blair was defeated when he tried to introduce a 90-day detention plan.

In the Commons, Mr Brown categorically refused Mr Cameron’s call for him to follow his climbdown on the 10p tax rate with another over 42 days. He said: “No. We are going ahead with our proposal.” He added that the Conservatives would be making a mistake if they opposed it.

Mr Brown’s remarks left him no room for manoeuvre, and sources close to him confirmed later that he was determined to press ahead with a move that he believed was backed strongly by the public. Many Labour MPs will vote against the plan, but Mr Brown will blame Conservative and Liberal Democrat opposition if he fails to get it through the Commons.

The Prime Minister is facing poll setbacks today – including between 150 and 200 council seats and the possible loss of London to Boris Johnson – even though the main parties say that their internal polling shows the London mayoral vote to be tight.

Aides to Mr Brown accepted that whatever he did after the elections would be interpreted as a “relaunch”, although he would not use that word.

The Prime Minister has heeded advisers who have urged him to own up to errors and show that he is willing to listen. Yesterday, on the 10p income tax rate, he told the BBC: “We made two mistakes. We didn’t cover as well as we should that group of low-paid workers who don’t get the working tax credits and we weren’t able to help the 60 to 64-year-olds who didn’t get the pensioner’s tax allowance.”

He said that he was listening and learning as Prime Minister. He added: “The problem was quite specific . . . We had dealt with this very, very major tax reform. We hadn’t done enough for these two smaller groups.”

Asked whether a change in government was necessary from time to time, Mr Brown replied: “I think governments need to refresh themselves.”

He added that he was making the “right long-term decisions”.

The Conservatives, who are expecting to secure more than 40 per cent of today’s vote for more than 4,000 seats on 139 councils, are insisting that because Labour did poorly in the corresponding elections four years ago the scope for big Tory gains in terms of seats is limited.

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