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Video: What should Gordon Brown do now?
The Conservatives were increasingly confident this afternoon that massive Tory gains in local elections across England and Wales would be capped this evening by victory for Boris Johnson, their colourful candidate for London Mayor.
With the outcome of the London vote due by 10pm, David Cameron's party was already celebrating a 44-per cent share of the vote nationwide. Labour, on 24 per cent, were pushed into third place behind the Liberal Democrats on 25 per cent, losing more than 300 council seats across England and Wales.
It was Labour's worst performance since the 1960s and a humiliation for Gordon Brown on his first proper electoral test as Prime Minister.
But victory in London would cap it all for the Tories. This afternoon, a senior Conservative source told the Comment Central weblog that Mr Johnson, MP for Henley, was set for a clear win over Ken Livingstone, the Labour incumbent. He said that that Mr Johnson would not win on first preference votes "but it will be pretty close to that".
By mid-afternoon, information on first-preference votes appeared to confirm that view, showing Mr Johnson ahead in nine out of the 14 constituencies, with Mr Livingstone leading in the remaining five. Mr Paddick was in third place in each of the areas. About 40% of the ballots have been counted since the count began. A result is expected at any time from 8.30pm tonight.
Meanwhile, Labour backbenchers began to tear into the the Prime Minister for being out of touch. One MP described it as Mr Brown's "John Major moment", a reference to the drubbing received by the former Tory premier in 1995, two years before he was ejected from Downing Street by Tony Blair.
Voter turnout in the mayoral poll is believed to have been at least 45 per cent, which is around 10 percentage points higher than the turnouts in the 2004 and 2000 elections.
In the run-up to the poll, Mr Johnson enjoyed a narrow opinion poll lead, although one bookmaker, Paddy Power, today announced it was paying out on a Johnson victory, hours before the count was completed.
Mr Cameron spoke about his hopes for Mr Johnson during a whirlwind tour around Wales and the north of England after his party's resounding polling success. Both the Tory leader and Mr Brown, speaking at a press conference in Downing Street, said they had spoken to their candidates and "thanked" them for fighting strong campaigns.
The scale of Labour's defeat began to rebound on Mr Brown. Derek Wyatt, Labour MP for Sittingbourne & Sheppey, who has one of the smallest majorities in the Commons at 79, branded the disastrous election performance a "John Major moment". He added that his seat was already "sub-prime" and only required someone to "sneeze" for him to lose it.
"Gordon has committed spectacular own-goals and the public is punishing him for it," he said.
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Boris looks too much like Bill Clinton! A conservative, you say? Interesting.....
Bill in SD, San Diego, USA
Right wing Johnson as Mayor will be a total disaster for London. Expect: severe cutbacks to the public transport budget, ongoing Underground strikes, cancelled cultural events, riots in forgotten ethnic areas, mismanagement of Crossrail & Olympic projects, plus the world laughing at mayoral gaffes.
Paul, London, England
Is it just me or does Ken increasingly resemble the emperor from star wars?
James, Newcastle,
Ray, it was probably hard to see all the way from the US, but when I voted it wasn't raining and I was the only person speaking English in the whole voting office.
At least the British political scene has not stooped to the low slurs of the Hilary/Obama race. With Boris, the truth was enough!
Mary, Bath,
Would it not be more appropriate, during this sorting out period, to be grateful to earler genarations for the sanity of DEMOCROCY ?
wpo, warsaw, ny
Listen Mr. Brown, you promised us a referendum on the EU treaty in your party manifesto. The first thing you should do is to correct this omission and make arrangements to hold one now. You said you were listening, or is that just empty rhetoric? Now DO something, there's a good boy!
Peter, Brixham, Devon
Gordon Brown's economic miracle was built on sand. Cheap money to bolster the economy. Wrecking the pension schemes by taking 20 billion and 5 billion a year gave him cheap money and ruined savers for their pensions.
The nail in the coffin the 10p tax fiasco. A year to find out!!!!
leigh, Barnsley, Yorkshire
Crime in London is OVER-RATED and exagerated by the media; what better way to sell papers and make a profit? Just like terrorism - OVER-RATED. Boris is just a watered down version of the BNP. London needs a SERIOUS mayor, unlike Boris.
Gladys, Peckham, uk
From Europe (but a Cresta Rider)
What's the difference between Zimbabwe and London? Very little! In Zimbabwe they take 5 weeks to declare the results and they are not democratic while in London we have no resultsmore than 24 hours (and counting) + a complicated and undemocratic preference system
Dr JN Prade, St. Moritz, Switzerland
Gordon Brown says he wants to listen and lead. Isn't it time he listens and gos ? Let the people decide in a General Election !
John Michael Wisbey, Virginia Water, Surrey
blunkett's right: it has nothing to do with whats going on now, but everything to do with what the labour party can promise (promises, promises) for tomorrow, which in turn has no basis in reality,
In other wods: "how can we spin our way out of this one?"
grindles, London, england
Not quite the same as the situation with John Major. Major did win an election- Can't see the current incumbent matching that!
Chris, Karlovy Vary, Czech Republic
I'm a Yank -- yesterday I that Labour was going to do poorly in the London election ---rainy weather plus the fact that ethnic minorities do not reliably turn out to vote --- but conservative folks do. Amusing to read how much the Brit political scene is like the American
Ray Brosterhous, Sacramento, CA/USA
Can someone tell me where Daventy is???
Mark Vickery, Sittingbourne, UK
Oh dear, Simon from Peterborough, really think your comment through...
Charlotte, London,
Remember what Ken did for London in his early career - stood up to Thatcher when the Labour party was
dissarray,, the fares fare policy which got us all using public transport and some great free concerts! - remind me again exactly what Boris has ever seriously done except promote Boris of course!
julie , inverness, scotland
Ken has been one of the most arogant polititians I've seen in living memory, he simply can't be wrong. London needs humility and someone prepared to put Londoners first. Livinstone and Brown today will learn charity begins at home!
Ray, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
well i doubt either of them can run london, but i doubt it makes any difference anyway, the country is in a steady decline.
I dont think i need to explain.. what i dont understand is how everyone is oblivious to it?
paul, Wolverhampton, west midlands
true, brown will doom labour, his reputation as a sensible man of the economy is in tatters, and the public faith in him has clearly been displayed. conservatives will win the next election , and rightly so. We need reforms on on tax and regulation
johnny, cambridge,
I did my bit for London yesterday. I'm hoping that we can finally have a mayor with some sense in Boris Johnson. He's certainly the most likeable politician I've seen so far. Got to love the man.
Louise, London,
I liked Ken, but I don't think he has dealt with the issues of yobs and cleanliness effectively. For my money I want the basics dealt with. This is what Boris said he would do. I guess now we are going to see.
Larry, Stratford,
What are the Tories on about - celebrating receiving forty-four percent of the nation's vote when only thirty-five percent of the nation turned out?
simon, peterborough,
Labout MPs may be blaming Brown but they have been voting for all his tax rises for years.
People are sick of labour full stop.
Thomas Maxwell, Reigate,
Brown says he is listening, so presumably he will now call an election, as it is clear that the British people have had enough of him and now want rid.
Roger, swindon,
Greetings from Germany Londoners,
just one word...brilliant. Even if im not a Londoner i always disliked Mr. Livingston for his questionable stance on multiculturalism. Standing on one stage with extremist (You know what extremist I mean) is too far off for a person in his position.Good luck Mr. J
Hans Wurst, Stadt, Germany
Great news for my the city that stole my heart. Great new for Brittan.
Good riddance Red Ken !
Brian , North Carolina, America
I think Gordon just said he must' Listen and learn!, or did he say 'Listen and leave'? Can I hear Cherie laughing.....!
paul freeman, London, England
It won't matter which party wins the next election; none will be able to deal with the disaster that this lot will leave behind.
Morvan, Saulieu, France
1. A Boris victory followed by a few years of incompetence/mismanagement/embarrassment to David Cameron by the MP for Henley;
2. The end of Ken Livingstone.
Could be the result of the night for Brown come the next election.
Neil Johnson, Bedford, UK
James,
Looks like a total disaster for the Tories in Daventry, why-oh-why are the press concentrating on the fact that they have won 44% of the national vote compared with 24% for Labour when the people of Daventry have sent shockwaves through the whole of British politics.
Bernard Bresslaw, East Cheam,
James Thurston.
Be fair, it's a sad day when you have to look to Braunston ward for your crumbs of comfort!
Geoffers, Bury,
Londoners will focus into the danger of the possibility of Johnson having any power....it will be a victory for deceit and distortion if Johnson wins..........................Ken lIvingstone is a dilligent capable good bloke
Eric, Southwick, England
Say goodbye to the 'Darling' Scotts!
Luke Faichney, Robin Hood's Bay, UK
Perhaps Cameron may be now confident enough to present the public with some "Policies"
Bill Rees, Truro, Cornwall
Ken Livingstone told Londoners not to vote for "a joke" and it looks as though they've taken his advice.
anne, bournemouth,
I would like to urge all Labour MP's with marginal seats such as Derek Wyatt to remain calm. In my own view we are entering uncharted territory. We have never had to contest local elections against a combination of adverse ecomonic forecasts before along with serving a third term.
James Thurston, Northampton, United Kingdom
If I was David Cameron I would not be crowing too much at the moment. Not least because in his own "Heartlands" ie Daventry District, despite their best efforts, the local Tories could not unseat the Labour councillor for Braunston ward or the Lib Dem in Barby ward.
James Thurston, Northampton, United Kingdom
If labour want to win the next election they must get rid of Brown IMMEDIATELY He is everything thats wrong with labour arrogant and out of touch.
Yobs are ruling the streets . our Police which seem powerless have been very badly let down by this government..
Jim, CHESTER, UK
Hurrah! England is back!
From France
Bernard Laudon
Bernard Laudon, Sainte-Maxime, France
Gordon Brown was warned repeatedly to listen to his constituents and wishes of the voters and failed. He should have given the British people their REFERENDUM and thought more about low income Brits. Good riddance Labour. Too bad about UKIP and the BNP.
Douglas Cochrane, Halifax,