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A dashing Dane with his own Facebook page has emerged as the favourite to thwart the ambitions of Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair of becoming the first “president of Europe”.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Liberal Prime Minister of Denmark since 2001, has been described by Silvio Berlusconi, the Prime Minister of Italy, as Europe's best-looking leader.
He is quietly gathering support as an ideal compromise candidate for the new role of president of the European Council, the forum in which EU leaders make decisions such as setting targets for greenhouse gases and biofuels.
Mr Blair had been widely described as a front-runner for the job created by the Lisbon treaty, which is due to start on January 1 and also involves representing Europe overseas. Although he has been backed publicly by President Sarkozy of France and may receive a boost from the re-election of his friend Mr Berlusconi, Mr Blair is not thought to have the crucial support of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor.
Until the inquiry into payments Mr Ahern received in the 1990s engulfed him, the man who stands down today as Irish Prime Minister was seen as an ideal choice. The long-serving leader even talked openly of wanting the job, something considered extremely risky in top-level EU power-broking.
Berlin is understood to favour Jean-Claude Juncker, the long-serving Prime Minister of Luxembourg, or Wolfgang Schüssel, the former Austrian Chancellor, but Britain will try to block both men as too federalist.
Although this will be the first big EU job appointed under qualified-majority voting rules, the successful candidate will need to be acceptable to Germany, France and Britain, the biggest financial backers of the EU.
This has led to a growing view that the two early favourites, Mr Blair and Mr Juncker, will cancel each other out, clearing the way for a compromise candidate — which leaves Mr Rasmussen in an ideal position.
“Anders is intelligent, he is liked, he is a centrist and he is keen,” an EU diplomat who knows the Danish leader said. He added that Mr Rasmussen, who has never publicly expressed interest in the EU job, has started learning French, one of the main working languages in Brussels. “Whenever there is a big EU job, the leaders usually look round the table first and only look outside if there is no acceptable candidate,” the diplomat said.
One of the arguments against Mr Rasmussen is that Denmark opted out of EU policy on justice and defence as well as the euro. He is planning referendums to reverse some or all of these. “The feeling is that, if he pulls them off, he will have brought Denmark closer to the core of Europe,” a diplomat said. “At the end of the day, the question is not how much support you can gather but whether anybody is going to put their foot down. No one will put their foot down over Anders.”
The candidate will be chosen at the same time as the new post of high representative or “EU foreign minister”, meaning that the sharing of the spoils by political groupings will be important. If Javier Solana, the Spanish social democrat, continues as EU foreign representative and José Manuel Barroso, the centre-right former Portuguese Prime Minister, continues as European Commission President, the stage will be set for a Liberal such as Mr Rasmussen.
The Dane's favourite quotation is from Theodore Roosevelt: “It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood.”
This suggests that “Fogh” is prepared to push for a greater prize than Denmark - the chance, in the words of Valéry Giscard-d'Estaing, the former French President, to be Europe's first George Washington.
CONTINENTAL CONTENDERS
Anders Fogh Rasmussen 55. Prime Minister of Denmark. Liberal centrist. Consensus builder. Widely acceptable compromise. Times odds: 5-2 favourite
Tony Blair 55. Middle East peace envoy, adviser to JP Morgan — and former British Prime Minister. Big-hitter well known in Washington. Times odds: 4-1 joint second favourite
Jean-Claude Juncker 53. Prime Minister of Luxembourg. Christian Democrat. Federalist. Backed by Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and France. Times odds: 4-1 joint second favourite
Wolfgang Schüssel 62. Former Austrian Chancellor, with long experience in office. Christian Democrat. Federalist tendencies. Backers: Germany and Austria Times odds: 7-1
José Manuel Barroso 52. President of European Commission. Centre-right. Admired for Commission role. Times odds: 8-1
Bertie Ahern 56. Steps down as Irish Prime Minister today. Centrist. Well-liked deal-maker. Under cloud of financial inquiry. Times odds: 12-1
Aleksander Kwasniewski 53. Former President of Poland. Centre-left; former Communist. Only candidate from “New Europe”. Backed by Poland. Times odds: 14-1
Angela Merkel 53. Chancellor of Germany — first eastern German to hold post. Centre-right. Widely acceptable — if throws hat in ring. Times odds: 20-1
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Why not get Gordon Brown the position. He was NEVER elected by the people of the UK, being the President of the EU he wouldn't be elected by the people of the EU. Having Gordon at the helm we could all go under together as "one happy union of citizens" With no democratic influence!
Ron, Sussex, UK
Sounds like a good choice to me.
K TuT, Birmingham, UK, EU
This is Paul, we dont vote in the EU president, he's elected in Brussels by big wigs, so Tony does stand a chance for promising to adopt the EU treaty amoung other things.
Presidents of Europe, my grand dad would turn in his grave if he heard this.
One step closer to that One World Goverment
Andrew T, England, UK,
Blair never had any chance of becoming President of the EU. Only the British Press had that idea. He is too controversial following his support for George Bush and his role as the Middle East Envoy seems to be a joke. Let him finish that job before he even contemplates taking on a major job in EU.
Paul Kelly, London, UK
Fogh Rasmussen is best contender. Not only is he a reliable Dane, but he also got the power to get EU back on the right track again. Never been a PM in Denmark with such charisma and leading power. We gonna miss him in Denmark, because no one else can do the job, as good as he does!
Niels, Nyborg, Denmark
I think Juncker would be best for the job....but Ras can handle the job too even better if Denmark joins the euro next year :)))
Anyway, he is good looking too....;that's another good point for the EU's face to the world...
pascal-pierr, Dinan, EU (FRA)
I'll back the Dane against T Blair any time!
In fact I'd back anyone other than T Blair!
This Danish chap sounds perfect to me!
Disgruntled Dorothy, Glasgow, Scotland
As a dane, one cannot help be afraid of the possibility, that Anders Fogh will abandon the four "special" danish rules (including the Euro)! It will be a sad day for Denmark, if that should ever happend, and if Anders Fogh wants it, then he's no longer the favourite candidate for ANY dane!
Michael Dan Nielsen, Vaerloese, Denmark
What about Brown , he will need a job soon. He could wreck the EU in much the same way he did the UK. Nice one!
D Case, Newquay,
I am wildly curious as to why the guardian prints a piece like this when all the founding statements come from anonymous "diplomats". You should stay above that in my opinion.
Signe Marie, Copenhagen, Denmark
No one with Eurosceptic tendencies should occupy the post. The world needs more Europe! I'd choose Juncker or, even better, Belgian Guy Verhofstadt, another pro-Europe liberal. And why not an Eastern European woman like Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga, former Latvian President? We need more female rulers!
Albert, Barcelona, Catalonia
Without Fogh, there would have been no Muhammed-crisis (the crisis began because Fogh refused to talk with 11 ambassadors about the cartoon drawings of Muhammed).
I can't wait to see what sort of fun he will be able to make as head of EU!
Stephan Mannstaedt, Copenhagen, Denmark
Blair opened the door to uncontrolled immigration in the UK and appeased Islamists and muslim bodies for his own political ends. He is highly likely to want do the same for Europe
David Cartright, Birmingham,
When is the election?
Are the candidates publishing manifesto's online?
MarkS, Leeds,
If he became the EU president, it would make me trust EU more. AFR is a decent man, and not the least bit corrupt. AFR stands for freedom and democracy and he is a hardliner against islamic extremism.
Oscar J., Copenhagen, Denmark
Willy Wonker would be better than Blair.
His ego would be detectable from space if he, wrongly, was given the role.
I nominate Ken Dodd.
Bob, Warrington, Cheshire
So we replace democracy with bureaucracy?
At least stop abusing the term democracy and holding it up so high when clearly everything is being done to take the power away from the people.
Ireland, the fate of Europe lies on your hands. Vote for democracy or for the modern 14th century kings.
Andrew, Liverpool,
Fogh is NOT a "consensus builder". He is a 'if you are not with me you are against me' guy, who generally refuses to answer questions which can cause him in trouble. He behaves more as an ignorant manipulator who don't really care about the oppionion of the minorities. Please make him leave DK soon!
Stephan Mannstaedt, Copenhagen, Denmark
I think Rasmussen would be a good choice.Other good choices in my point of view would be Juncker and Schussel.
Harris, Athens,
I'm not sure he'll get my vote, but Bliar definitely won't.
I will be able to vote for the president, won't I? The EU is a democracy, isn't it?
Mike, Brighton, England
Haven't seen a Ballot paper for any of these guys on the list. An anti-democratic ":Leader" of an anti-democratic organisation.
"whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood". I hardly think growing fat on taxpayers money in a Brussles bistro qualifies you as being "In the arena".
Chris, London, UK
"Until the inquiry into payments Mr Ahern received in the 1990s engulfed him, the man who stands down today as Irish Prime Minister was seen as an ideal choice."
Surely that makes Ahern the ideal candidate. It ensures he empathises with the rest of them and promote their interests.
Edwin, Bucharest,
Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen seems like a very good candidate. Hope he will get it.
Michael, Londen,
Anders Fogh Rasmussen is presiding a country with a history of a number of "no's" to new treaties and even a "no" to the euro.
It is therefor unlikely that he will find enough support.
The same goes for the UK and its candidates.
Daniel Hoogland, Narbonne, France
I hope Anders Fogh Rasmussen does get it. Anyone else than Tony Blair the man who sold Britain out for his own political ambitions.
John, London, England
B-Liar has always been pro-USA and anti European, so he does not deserve to be elected president.
Hamad Lone, London, England
I didn't know, that the EU top post was a beauty contest.!
Hopefully the top job will be awarded to anybody but Denmarks Anders Fogh Rasmussen, so help us GOD !!!!!!!!
Niels Petersen, Angeles, Philippines
Aren't we forgetting something here? If the Irish reject the treaty on June 12, then nobody will have the job. Don't count your chickens before they hatch!
Vic de Bruyne, Seattle, USA