Peter Riddell: Analysis
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Gordon Brown has succumbed to an affliction common to many leaders: mishandling an issue where he had made his reputation before entering 10 Downing Street. The economy and fighting poverty have turned from being his greatest strength to, potentially, his greatest weakness.
These issues matter far more than the fuss over the revelations of infighting in the Cherie Blair, John Prescott and Lord Levy memoirs. Their publication infuriated many senior ministers and Labour MPs, rebounding against their authors rather than against Mr Brown, for whom they are a distraction.
Mr Brown is damaged enough anyway and there are serious doubts about how, or even whether, he can rebuild his authority. This is more to do with his character and his response to these problems than with global economic troubles.
In an interview on the Radio 4 Week in Westminster programme, Peter Hennessy of Queen Mary, University of London, that most erudite and irrepressible of students of postwar premiers, made two telling points. First, he noted the analysis of Sir Antony Jay, co-author of Yes Minister, about how companies in trouble engage in selective panic and produce lots of little measures that result in chaos. This “displacement activity for the disturbed”, as Professor Hennessy calls it, has clearly been visible in Whitehall for the past six months, as Mr Brown has believed that the vitality of his Government is shown by unveiling masses of new initiatives, often to little effect.
Secondly, as mentioned above, there has been the real danger that prime ministers are most vulnerable in areas where they are presumed to have the greatest expertise. Professor Hennessy cites Eden, whose career was built on his diplomatic skills and knowledge, not least in the Middle East, but who destroyed himself over the Suez crisis in 1956; Callaghan, with all his roots in the trade unions, whose Government fell after the Winter of Discontent strikes in 1978-79; and Baroness Thatcher, who had an intuitive feel for the interests of ratepayers, “her people”, but was then fatally undermined by the poll tax. You could also point to Tony Blair, with all his political talents for forging coalitions of different interests, never really recovered from his failure to persuade enough other leaders, and the British public, to support the Iraq War.
Now Mr Brown, the Iron Chancellor, with his boasts of the best record as a chancellor for three centuries, is most vulnerable over the economy. His fate will be partly determined by the length and severity of the economic slowdown but it is even worse than that for Mr Brown. One of his proudest claims is to have slashed child and pensioner poverty, even if the record is less good than he hoped. Yet he is accused of ignoring the poor over the abolition of the 10p tax band. For a long time, in his enthusiasm for tax credits, Mr Brown appeared not to recognise the problem, and even now he seems to underestimate what is needed to sort it out.
To be undermined by what you think you know best is a cruel form of hubris. Recovery is very hard. Leaders have to alter how they work, but they also have to change the public's unfavourable view of them, which happens very rarely.

Sam Coates's blog about Westminster, politics and spin
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Come back, Tony. All is forgiven.
Phil Woodford, London, UK
This thoughtful analysis highlights that those in power are at their most vulnerable when they disappoint people's expectations - especially in the areas where they have previously delivered. This disappointment causes the vitriol that so many have expressed - no-one likes being taken for a fool.
Jane Wright, Bury St Edmunds, UK
in any new executive job, there is a probationary period. If the prime minister position had one, it is fair to say than Gordon Brown would not pass.
Reg, London, Uk
In fact, the UK economic boom of the last 10-12 years has resulted entirely from the availability of cheap goods/money from the Far East. The inflationary brake was removed.
This irresistable boost was there for ANY Chancellor, and no credit is due specifically to Mr Brown for the outcome.
Simon Stephenson, Windermere, UK
Brown needs to stay, that way he will ensure the certain demise of nulab for ever, so please Gordon stay!
Albert Hall, Kettering,
"Maybe the fact that you paid the same tax whether you earned 5,000 or 5 million a year had something to do with it!!!"
You have the same today - the council tax is based on the property, not the incomes of the occupiers. Incomes should surely be addressed by INCOME tax.
Jamie, Edinburgh,
Only potentially? He too credit for the achievements of others, then proved to know nothing about the ecomony and care nothing about the poor.
He got into No10 on a series of lies, backed by the most vicious sectarian media campaign in British history, and the electorate will NEVER forgive him.
edward green, Upminster, England
"It wasn't a poll tax.
What it was, however, was fair. More people in your house? You pay more. What's wrong with that?"
Maybe the fact that you paid the same tax whether you earned 5,000 or 5 million a year had something to do with it!!!
Kevin Thompson, High Wycombe, Reading
As an early retired male on 9k year obviously i am hit hard over the 10p thing. But a lot of people are also upset with various things this labour government have done. To make matters worse we have an unelected prime minister, while we like to lecture the rest of the world on democracy.
Gord, Derby, uk
It wasn't a poll tax.
What it was, however, was fair. More people in your house? You pay more. What's wrong with that?
ben foster, penley,
He was not a great chancellor. He was a a success of circumstance. He inherited a stable economy and full coffers, and blew both (remember selling the gold reserves? Didn't gold achieve a record high recently?)
But please, Mr B, don't go. I'd hate for Labour to turn around their fortunes
WS, Manchester,
10 yrs in control of purse strings - spending to make him and labour look good-and now when we need a few extra bob the pot is empty...
WHY do commentators say he has been good at his job??
how bad were the others??
mike cassidy, gloucester, englands
The Brown One was lucky and rode the easy money, low inflation boom.
Now that the boom is over the revellers are sobering up and realisng that a vast amount of money has been wasted.
The Brown One went on a massive spending spree and now has left the UK's credit card maxed out.
Simon, Harrogate, UK
The time is up for Dictator Prudence U-Turn Brown.
No credibility. Most devious. A foreign control freak who has brought England to its knees.
Forget the snipes from Prescott, Blair and Levy - Dictator Prudence U-Turn Brown appears to spend all his time picking fights with the likes of Frank Field
Reuben Camara, Morecambe, UK
Being a labour voter Gordon Brown is a disappointment for me.The referendum on the treaty (The Irish are going to have) and 10p tax, a 100%tax rise for me being a pensioner with only gov state pension income. Labour will not recover from this.
robert johnson, gimsby, north east lincolnshire
yes gordon is panicking , he dream of being prime minister is turning into his nightmare , his refusal to hold a referendum on the treaty & several stealth taxes too many will be his downfall
taylor, herts,