Tim Hames
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
The price of bread (like everything else) has shot through the roof recently. This doesn’t mean that there are not two small crumbs of comfort for Gordon Brown and the Labour Party in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election result, and one rather more tempting morsel for the Labour Party, but emphatically not for the Prime Minister.
Yet these are small crumbs indeed. The first is that the slump in the Labour Party vote at Crewe was not noticeably worse than in other by-elections in the past five years, indeed it was an improvement on some of them. Labour lost over a third of its 2005 vote on Thursday, which was a little worse than in the Hartlepool by-election of September 2004, but about the same as Dunfermline and West Fife in February 2006 and Brent East in September 2003. Labour actually lost more than 40 per cent of its previous total in Birmingham Hodge Hill in July 2004 and almost half at Leicester South on the same day. So by recent standards, the collapse in the Labour vote under Gordon Brown is not that spectacular.
The difference, of course, is that in all the other by-elections mentioned above it was the Liberal Democrats, not the Conservatives, who picked up the support that the Labour Party was haemorrhaging. That fact alone means that the impact and the pain of this defeat is the equivalent of all those other setbacks put together.
This leads to the second crumb of comfort, although you might need a microscope to see it. In a sense, this was a trouncing of Labour’s own quite conscious choosing. When Gwyneth Dunwoody died, Downing Street had two options in terms of by-election timing. The first was to take it on the chin as swiftly as possible with the risk that it would become a referendum on the Government and hence a heavy loss to the Tories (who were well positioned in second place). The second was to wait until July and allow the Liberal Democrats the time to build up their support so that they would have a realistic chance of victory.
A triumph for Nick Clegg would have been far less embarrassing (and less novel) than one for David Cameron. Labour toyed with playing it long but feared that the Tories might win in July regardless with the Lib Dems second and themselves third, and that would be a dire catastrophe.
The crumb that does not require 20/20 vision to locate comes from relatively recent political history and the amazing, spooky frankly, similarity between this by-election and one held at Mid-Staffordshire in 1990.
The Mid-Staffs contest occurred in the third year of the 1987-1992 Parliament. It happened at a moment when the popularity of the Conservatives had sharply and suddenly slumped because of a change in tax policy (the Community Charge then, the 10p band rate now) and because signs of a sharp economic downturn with rising prices had emerged (ditto, 2008). The campaign was considered an unusually significant test of whether the Leader of the Opposition could win seats outside of his own heartland (Neil Kinnock and Middle England before Mr Cameron and northern England).
The Conservatives then began with just over 50 per cent of the vote from the last general election (Labour had just under 50 per cent in Crewe). Their candidate suffered an 18.3 percentage point fall in their share of the vote (Ms Dunwoody II endured exactly the same fate, 18.3 percentage points down, in Crewe). The victorious Labour contender won just over 49 per cent (as did Edward Timpson also on Thursday) and the swing (21 per cent) was even more sensational than that of Crewe (17.6 per cent). The then Political Editor of The Times (Robin Oakley) duly reported the next day that if this switch in sentiment “were to be repeated nationally at the next election, every single member of Mrs Margaret Thatcher’s Cabinet save John Major, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, would lose his seat”.
This did not happen. Far from it. Despite a continuing economic malaise, ministers won a surprise fourth term in office (recapturing Mid-Staffordshire as they did) in part because voters remained to be fully convinced that the Opposition had changed sufficiently. The Tories did, however, have to dump their leader in order to find salvation. No crumb of comfort there for Mr Brown.

Sam Coates's blog about Westminster, politics and spin
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Glen/ London
Were you born when Labour caused weekly strikes, Mass picketing, unburied bodies in the Morgues, Uncollected rubbish for weeks (not just a fortnight)?
No Labour government since the first has left the country better off.
Labour is only good for those employed by government.
Howard , Basildon, England
When Gordon Brown took over the economy from Ken Clarke the senior civil sevant at the Treasury reported that the economy was in good condition, he replied, "What do you want me to do, send a 'thank you letter'?"
The next Chancellor will not feel like sending any 'thank you letter'.
Ken Stephenson, Lee on Solent, Hants.
Britain is a seafaring nation and the electorate imitate the sailor. They have a spell at sea, behaving responsibly and saving for the future (Conservative Government) The they have a spell an shore leave (Labour Goverment). Throwing money around on stupid things.
Britain - Time to get back to sea.
Ken Stephenson, Lee on Solent, Hants.
Glen / London "When folk have the choice those who can remember beyond the last ten years."
Every Labour government since 1945 has left the economy in a worse state than that they inheritied. A booming world economy meant that couldn't be done in one term - but they've managed it eventually.
Bernard, Edinburgh, Scotland
what is quite evident is that all those Liberal Democrat gains at by-elections over the years have meant absolutely nothing...how many Liberal Democrats does it take to change a light bulb?....Liberal Democrats don't change anything!
colin, dunfermline, scotland
After 11 years of Socialist wrecking, disaster looms for the UK whoever gets in next.
Having said that, it's still nice to see that despicable man Brown finally get his comeuppance.
Jon Leigh, Safely out of it in rural, France
The people who ousted Blair, deserve Brown. (and that includes all members of the public who wanted Blair out - you know who you are) It's not as if you didn't have plenty of time to see what Brown was like, before booting Blair out. So don't whinge about Brown - you got what you wanted.
Paul Francis, Brisbane, Australia
John Major didn't win as much as Neil Kinnock lost, the difference between now and then is that Cameron isn't Kinnock, having far greater personal popular appeal.
No amount of hand washing can cleanse the stain of these years of squandered wealth and opportunity by Labour
Charles, Appleby, UK
Glen London
Toryism is evil is it?
Look around you, who do you think has been running Britain for the last ten years?
It certainly is'nt the Labour Party my father joined sixty years ago.
Michael Rigby, blackburn,
Glen/London "At least labour has rebuilt our schools and hospitals and closed the tin huts.Toryism is evil"
And they did it by hiding the astronomical cost, to be paid by future generations via PFI schemes.
MRSA, nurses with no jobs, kids who can't read; All thanks to NuLabour and Gordon, whoopee
Glenn, wales,
When folk have the choice those who can remember beyond the last ten years will remember the Tories who brought about 3m unemployed,15% interest rates,the closure of factories,schools and hospitals.At least labour has rebuilt our schools and hospitals and closed the tin huts.Toryism is evil.
Glen / London, London, UK
As Alan of Chelmsford said Labour have Lied and Lied again, and even now they just do not get it they just do not know just how they bad they are and how much people hate them.
keith lyons, stockport, england
NuLab brought in the mini wage, the new deal and have never had a recession. Thacther had two recessions.
Joe Wheelbarrow, Brent, England
No Nulab, ZaNuLab, or any other configuration. Just let them go and hope that DC has more in him than is apparent at the moment. BUT NO BROWN, "Sowhat" Balls, Blears, Harman, Milliband etc.,
M. Cawdery, Portadown, Co. UK, EU.
This is not just about 10p tax - NuLab incompetence and the corruption of democracy goes back to Bliar.
An illegal war based on deliberate lies (£5bn to date - 222 British & 100,000+ civilian deaths, whitewashed enquiries, Health Service, education, prisons & immigration, banking & financial, etc
R Bingham, Lauzun, France
The latest IMF report on UK economy says that we are in deep doo-doo and in response a Treasury spokesman said: "The UK economy is strong and resilient, with strong fundamentals such as low debt, and record levels of employment."
I wonder why we don't believe Nulab?
Kevin, Workington, Cumbria
Mike, Alicante, Spain - Not so I'm afraid, Gerald Ford became President without ever having been elected to office, he became VP on the resignation of Spiro Agnew and then President on Nixon's resignation so he got to hold the highest office in the land without anyone ever having voted for him
Jon Boorman, Charlotte, NC, USA (Ex-UK)
Surprising media commentary coming from Murdoch. I wonder where this bandwagon is going?
Steven Farquhar, London, UK
Et Tu Harriet
Keith, Hull,
If the Labour Party can muster up the courage to appoint a younger more articulate leader like David Miliband then I would consider voting for them at the next election.
A. Hunt, London, UK
A leader voter by his party is still not a leader voted for by the country and Brown was foisted on the country by the men in grey suits that run Nulab. At least in the USA presidents are voted into office independently of party allegiances, Britain does not have that level of democracy.
Mike, Alicante, Spain
Plus ca change, plus la meme chose as the French would say (the more things change the more they remain the same). What is the point in throwing-out the Real New Labour Party to be replaced by a vacuous New Labour Lite/Blue Labour Party?
Barry Scarfe, Brentwood, United Kingdom
Labour now are making the mistake the Tories did over the past ten years; namely thinking a change of leader would change the parties fortunes.
Unfortunately for them, the problems run much deeper, and the '92 escape for the Tories was on the back of the country not trusting Labour under Kinnock
Damian, London,
Is it me, or is does the summary of this piece in the box to the right completely contradict the article itself?
Colin, Glasgow,
Brown was elected by the whole Labour Party, not just MPs. The constituency parties voted whether to nominate him and the majority did so. Those voting at constituency meetings were elected representatives of the membership who acted in accordance with members' views. More of a mandate than Major.
Miriam, London,
GB has never fought a General Elections as leader and so has no mandate to be PM. Maybe this didn't matter much in the past, but now Scots have own Parliament, English and perhaps also the Welsh may deliberately or sub-consciously be anti an 'unelected' Scot as PM controlling our domestic agenda.
Colin, Sarlat, France
New or Old Labour is on the way out at last. They have debased politics with their lying spin, wasted incredible amounts of money, seriously damaged the economy and created too many none jobs. Sadly we will have to wait ubtil 2010 to see them off.
Philip, Wantage,
We're sick of being taxed with no representation. We want a country we can be proud of, and one in which we feel hope and optimism. The morale of the British is being culled. 10p tax is just one of many things that we're sick of. We don't want to feel the weight of oppressive government.
W Smith, Manchester,
The big difference is that labour have already changed their unpopular long-term leader and enjoyed and squandered the bounce it gave them.
Mat G, london, uk
We certainly should dump NuLabour, but there's no point going back to the Tories. Let's try the new ones!
C Blackmore, Melksham, England
Labour MPs we hear are seriously considering a change of leader. While the opposition parties will improve their future election results if Mr Brown stays. It makes for great entertainment.
jj, Peterborough, UK
Politicians of all parties frequently fail to inspire, but this current lot of self-important "representatives" take the biscuit. Even as they take money from the pockets of the less well-paid, they vote for themselves to have their childcare bills paid for by us. Cameron - take notes!! Get real!!
Sue, Bedale, North Yorks, UK
Labour are not the way forward but nor is Tony Blair Mark II (Cameron). The UK is a busted flush and voters in Scotland and Wales want different policies to England.
The only answer is mutual independence but apart from the laughable anti Scottish English Democrats, England has no party.
Joe Middleton, Edinburgh, Scotland
What we have here is a Prime Minister who was not elected by the people and as such has no mandate to lead the country.
All Brown knows is how to tax people and he does this pretty well.
If he believes the people are behind him to deliver us through tough times let him call an election and see
Steve Ryan, Newcastle, United Kingdom
A weak vacuous analysis. House prices will collapse, the Western economy will collapse, food riots in China and India, collapse of their economies, huge numbers of people, ie everyone, in negative equity. Would you really vote for a Tory government in such circumstances? Would you heck as like!!
Bertie Evans, Dundee, UK
its a shame the public has no recourse to remove the govt now.Maybe we, the public ,should have the right to instigate and hold a public vote of no confidence for the instant removal of this govt... why should we have to wait another 2 years?
Sam, London , UK
Regarding Alan of Chelmsford's comment, it is not that Labour cannot tell the truth or, for that matter, cannot tell a lie. The fact is because of their relativistic sense of morality, which owes all to expediency and nothing to a politically philosophical position, they cannot tell the difference.
Steve Buckel, Braunau-am-Inn, Austria
This Labour farce has favoured the benefit class, stay at home, no job, and commitments. It has over the past decade penalised those families that pay higher-than-Europe taxes, just to feed the other class. Enough is enough - I say call a referendum, and oust the Labour party out of power
B Bhana, Harrow, UK
I suspect that the electorate has little appetite for the Tories, but far, far less for Gordon Brown. As the Tories ran a "personal Message" to Brown campaign it seems that however loudly the electorate shouts at Gordon Brown he is the only one who doesn't get the message.
Neil, Gloucestershire, England
It is not a matter if the Tories come to power its when.
This Government are clapped out and Brown is a disaster as Prime Minister.
All they know how to do is tax us to death.
David Pearson, Blackburn, England
We might listen to labour if we ever found out they were capable of telling the truth rather than lie after lie after lie
Alan, Chelmsford, UK
Wonderful News
Dump Labour they are not the way forward.
c.bartlett, redhill, UK