It is bad, and getting worse. But how bad? The latest Populus poll for The Times provides grim reading for Gordon Brown and his advisers, with new low ratings for him and for the Labour Party on any comparison since 1997.

Both the trend and the level are worrying for Labour. Since Mr Brown’s brief honeymoon last summer Labour’s rating has fallen by 13 points on the average of all published polls, with the Tories up ten points and the Liberal Democrats three points higher. Only three fifths of those who voted Labour in 2005 say that they would do so now, compared with 95 per cent of Tories staying loyal. Almost 20 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2005 say that they would vote Tory in an election now.

The net result is to leave Labour’s monthly rating, now about 26 per cent, at slightly lower than Tory support during the same stage of the Major Government in 1995. The Tories, however, are roughly five points below where the Tony Blair-led Opposition was then. That is largely because the Liberal Democrats are doing better now, a still under-appreciated point. An important caveat needs to be added: polling techniques have changed and adjustments have been made by Populus (and ICM) for “shy voters” who are reluctant to declare their allegiances. These have narrowed the gap slightly between the main parties.

Nonetheless, after the aberrant Blair years we may be reverting to a pattern of governing parties doing badly and oppositions doing well midterm, both in polls and in local election and by-election results. Labour was well ahead in the midterms of the 1979-83 Parliament (at any rate before the rise of the SDP) and the 1987-92 Parliament. It then lost the general elections but the figures were not as spectacular as now or as in the mid1990s.

Moreover, as Andy Cooke noted in a revealing post last December for the politicalbetting.com site, the old adage that polls always swing back towards the government has been broken since 1979: the Tories have done better than their mid-term polling levels, but Labour has slipped back.

The other pointers are gloomy for Labour. Only 15 per cent now say that they are satisfied with the Labour Government, including fewer than one in four of those who voted for the party in 2005. The number of voters saying that they would rather have the Tories in office is at 42 per cent. For the first time it has almost converged with the 44 per cent either satisfied with Labour or dissatisfied but still preferring them to the Tories.

The Tories are also moving into a clear lead on economic competence. Early last September (it seems almost prehistory now) Mr Brown and Alistair Darling were the most trusted to deal with any economic problems by 61 per cent of voters, against 27 per cent for David Cameron and George Osborne. This gap had disappeared by February. The Tory team moved in to a 40 to 30 per cent lead by last month, and 49 to 32 per cent now. Unless this lead can be reversed, the prospects for Mr Brown and Labour look bleak. Of course, trends can change, but there is no precedent for a party in the dire predicament of Labour and Mr Brown now winning the next general election, although Mr Cameron still has to consolidate his gains.

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