Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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The Brown Government gets the blame for all bad news, whether or not it is directly responsible. It may be unfair, but that is the price for the collapse in public confidence.
Take the issue of fuel prices, which is near the top of voters’ concerns. According to the latest Populus poll for The Times, taken over the weekend, nearly three fifths of voters (58 per cent) say that, taking account of the recent rising prices, the Government bears “a great deal of responsibility” for the high cost of petrol and diesel; 34 per cent say “some responsibility” and only 6 per cent “no responsibility”. Of course, duty and taxes account for a big proportion of pump prices, but the recent rises are largely to do with global energy prices.
Mr Brown sees both the problem and the solution in global terms. He has been talking to Opec and the oil-producing countries. But the public thinks in local terms, as shown by the protests over fuel prices in many other European countries. Apparent impotence in the face of global forces does not convince the voters.
The vast majority of voters (88 per cent) think that the Government should scrap the 2p a litre increase in fuel duty that is due to take effect in the autumn, with only 10 per cent saying it should go ahead. But many would go farther. Two thirds (67 per cent) back not only cancelling the 2p rise but also a cut in the present level of petrol duty. Only 30 per cent say that duty should be left unchanged, a good proxy for the core green vote. The limits to the greening of the Tory Party are shown by the 77 to 21 per cent balance among its voters for a cut in duty. By contrast, Liberal Democrat voters split 53 to 46 per cent on the issue.
But would Mr Brown get any credit if the Government scrapped the 2p rise or made other cuts in petrol duty? Nearly three fifths (57 per cent) say that this would make them think more positively towards Mr Brown because it will show that he is “listening to the concerns of ordinary people”. But 34 per cent say that it will make them think more negatively towards him because it “will show he is weak, dithering and caves into pressure”. About one in four voters thinks both that Mr Brown should make concessions and that if he does it will show that he is weak.
There is some evidence that, when voters have discussed these issues more fully in focus groups, most both want a reduction in duty and feel that a cut would amount to caving into pressure, rather than being responsive leadership. That was how the £2.7 billion package to deal with the 10p tax aboliton was viewed.
So Mr Brown cannot win at present. Many leading Tories are wary about the latest polls. They regard the freefall in the ratings of Mr Brown and Labour as a temporary phase that cannot last for ever. They are right that Labour’s rating is bound to bottom out, probably soon. But, whether or not there is some bounce back, the damage has been done to Mr Brown’s credibility and authority on crucial issues such as fuel prices.
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