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The fight facing Brown | Sketch | Red Box blog | The bribes | The concessions | Cameron the winner
A win is a win, however achieved, and with whatever allies. But despite Gordon Brown’s evident relief at his first victory in many months, the Commons vote is far from the end of the story.
The impact has to be measured over varying time spans. In the short term, the Government has won a rare tactical coup over the opposition parties. Tory MPs were furious, some attacking the Democratic Unionists as traitors for using their key nine swing votes to back the 42-day proposal. Rumoured, though denied, deals with the DUP have parallels in the bargaining done with Unionist MPs by previous governments in a precarious position, as the Callaghan administration tried to do unsuccessfully on the eve of its loss of a no-confidence motion in March 1979.
Put another way, if the Government had lost, Mr Brown’s authority would have been undermined further and there would have been another round of media stories, and speculation, about his leadership. The freefall in his political standing would have continued. As it is, he may have stabilised his position among Labour MPs, at least temporarily.
But any celebrations could fade quickly if you look beyond this weekend. There is virtually no chance of the House of Lords approving the Bill to extend precharge detention to 42 days in its present form. The Lords prides itself on defending civil liberties and it has amended several counter-terrorism Bills since 2001.
Labour does not have a majority in the second chamber and can easily be outvoted by Conservative and Liberal Democrat peers combined however the crossbench, unaligned peers vote. But Labour also faces a large rebellion in its own ranks. Lord Falconer of Thoroton, the former Lord Chancellor, and Lord Goldsmith, the former Attorney-General, have said they will oppose 42 days, and will be joined by many other Labour peers, while many normal loyalists may abstain. Of course, there may be cross-voting, with some opposition peers backing the proposals, but the odds are that 42 days will be defeated heavily. Peers will feel freer to act because of the wafer-thin margin in the Commons.
The question then is how far the Lords will press their objections to 42 days. Much depends on the size of the Lords majority rejecting the Commons vote. In the past, controversial proposals on detention powers have bounced between the two Houses in what is known at Westminster as parliamentary ping-pong.
But, usually, and after the introduction of safeguards, the Lords has eventually accepted the will of the Commons. Feelings are running even higher this time, therefore increasing the chances of a long-running confrontation.
In political terms, Mr Brown reckons that he is on the side of public opinion, which has backed 42 days by a very big margin in all polls, despite the criticism of civil libertarians. He has staked a lot on playing the national security card and has depicted David Cameron as pursuing “opposition for opposition’s sake”, and being implictly “weak” on terrorism.
The fate of 42 days, and the long-term political fallout, will depend not just on what happens in Westminster over the next few months but also on whether there are further terrorist outrages.

Sam Coates's blog about Westminster, politics and spin
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All this nonsense about 'security.' How is shutting anyone up for 42 days going to stop a bomb going off - unless it happens to be the bomber. How many plots have been foiled? Why weren't the police clamouring for this if it were necessary? A futile gesture by a futile PM and a Pyrric victory.
Jeremy James, St Maurice, France
Labour and GB are creating constitutional disfunction at every
step you can't fudge principles.We have the unanswered
devolution issues and now the prospect of the legislature
involved in the legal process.Can we allow an unelected Prime Minister use the parliament act to get his way.
roger, bridport,
FIDDLING WHILE ROME BURNS, Brown fails to realise that the majority of people care about The ECONOMY, Mortgages, Employment, Closing Schools, Hospitals and Post Offices and the ever increasing Tax Burden..and not to forget the price of Fuel, thats what he should be dealing with, he has lost the plot
Peter, Chichester, UK
It's ironic isn't it? Parliament was originally set up to protect the people from the excesses of the king and aristocracy.
Now, a few hundred years later, we are dependant on the Lords to protect us from the anti-libertarianism of the Commons. What goes around....
Mel, Shoreham-By-Sea
Mel Cherriman, Shoreham-By Sea, England
Is Davies a conviction politician or is he trying to re-run the Leadership election? As you report Cameron does not often put himself at odds with public opinion and maybe he blames Davies for making him a loser on this occasion. Strange how those who lost 42 days now look to the un-elected Lords
Cliff Winfield, Leicester,
Why would a man who probably hates being compared to Joe Stalin behave in this way?
Richard Crompton, Baden, Switzerland
Sadly,yesteray's Commons outcome does not mean anything--other than to display further evidence of the precarious position of a weak prime minister, happy to do dodgy parliamentary deals this way and that purely to save his own face.
william grierson, Kimpton, UK
It is a fundamental principle in a free society that the government cannot imprison citizens without saying why. Shame on you, Gordon Brown, shame on you, for robbing us of a freedom which generations of our ancestors have fought and died to preserve. And shame on us for letting it be stolen.
David, Launceston,
The point is that no change is necessary - one presumes that if the police wish to detain someone beyond 28 days, they will be able to make the case to (presumably) a judge - if they can't make the case, then they shouldn't detain further, and in which case, investigations/surveillance can continue.
John, birmingham,
Why assume that by releasing suspects after 28 days, the investigation underway totally ceases and the miscreants left to wander about unfettered carrying "dirty bombs"?
Suspected serial killers, drug dealers and would-be axe-murderers are watched and taken in for future questioning, as necessary.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
G Londsale. Utter twaddle. How can detaining people without sufficient evidence to charge them for 42 days possibly stop a bomb? There is actually NO evidence that this absurd measure will help the War on Terror, and it is incontrovertable that it undermines out historic freedoms and way of life.
NBeale, London, England
All down to the DUP! Misery makes strange bedfellows.
paul freeman, London , England
Brown couldn't care less if this goes through the Lords or not: what counts is that he looks tough on terror. In fact, if the Lords do shoot it down, he'll revel in the opportunity to crow about them opposing 'the will of the people'. Embodied, of course, by him.
Jonathan Widnall, Torquay,
I'm shocked and deeply saddened that the conservative party have NOT put the security of our country above everything .Just a year or so down the line and a successful dirty bomb (or two) in a major UK city and the Party could find itself responsible as a result of its short sighted voting yesterday
Gordon Lonsdale , Northampton, UK
thanks goodness for the Lords, and what a sad day it is when the majority of the public polled wish to give up their civil liberties so freely. Lets hope *member of the public* you are never wrongly mistaken as a terrorist and end up 42 days without trial. Just think of all the soaps you will miss!
rt, london,
Brown clearly commands so little respect from his own backbenchers that he cannot, even with weeks of arm twisting and various promises, get them to back this proposal and can only win by bribing the Ulster Unionists.
Just more loss of authority for this already fatally weakened 'Prime Minister.'
Roger, swindon,