Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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A year after taking power, the Prime Minister is hoping that tackling his greatest challenge – the economy – will yet prove to be his salvation. The Conservatives have other plans, Philip Webster reports
It could, and should, have been so different – and it was for a time. By now, nearly a year after becoming Prime Minister, Gordon Brown might have hoped to have secured his own mandate in a spring 2008 election. As it is, his dream has been shattered with his own and Labour’s ratings in freefall.
There have been two turning points: the first, early last October; and the second, this April and May.
The polls chart, with grim brutality, the brief up, and the longer down, of the first Brown year. The up lasted from when the uncontested leadership campaign began in early May last year, through his arrival in No 10 on June 27 to September, with Labour’s rating rising from 29 per cent to a peak of 40 per cent. Mr Brown’s initial mantra of change was reinforced by a blizzard of daily initiatives last July.
His prime-ministerial image was buttressed then by his handling of terrorist attacks within two days of taking office, then by floods, and, in August, by an isolated foot-and-mouth outbreak. Even after the Northern Rock bank run broke in September, Mr Brown and Alistair Darling were also, at first, trusted more than the Tories to handle any economic troubles.
The first turning point came in early October. The initial successes fuelled talk of a November 2007 election, and Mr Brown failed to make a quick decision, creating an opportunity for the Tories to take the initiative, as they did over inheritance tax. Mr Brown’s pretence that the polls played no part in his decision not to call an election and the muddled tax proposals in the PreBudget Report shortly afterwards changed his image from one of strength to dithering, a charge that has stuck.
These errors were clearly Mr Brown’s, but they were compounded by bad luck (notably the loss of Revenue & Customs computer discs containing details of over 20 million people) and a worsening global credit crunch. Labour’s poll ratings fell to 33 per cent by the end of the year.
Mr Brown attempted to assert his authority in the new year by reorganising his Downing Street operation and introducing a range of new policies. But he weakened his own position by refusing for a long time to recognise, or respond to, the backlash over the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax announced in spring last year, though coming into effect in April this year. This undermined his support not only among voters, as shown in Labour losses in the May local elections and in the Crewe by-election, but also, as significantly, among fellow Cabinet ministers, who began to question his judgment.
The second turning point came this spring when Labour’s rating dropped sharply again, to about 26 per cent, the level touched by the Tories in the mid1990s. Some of the decline can be blamed on the global economic position, the credit crunch, the fall in house prices and the rise in fuel and food prices.
But the two key turning points are linked with mistakes by Mr Brown himself: the botched election decision and the 10p tax fiasco. Voters sense this: according to the Populus leader index (on a 0 to 10 scale) Mr Brown’s rating has fallen since last July from 5.49 to 3.9. David Cameron’s rating has risen from 4.81 to 5.25. Voters have made up their minds about Mr Brown – and such an adverse verdict will be very hard to reverse.
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If he called a referendum on the EU constitution/treaty he would be seen as honest and brave so could then climb back in our favour but I reckon he would rather get a cushy job with the EU.
R Mason, London, UK
What terrifies me is that the conservatives won't be able to sort out our deep seated problems quickly enough for the voting public when they get into power and they will be voted out after the first term.
Pushkin, Durham, UK
The phrase "in office, but not in power" springs to mind....
Tim Brookshaw, Atlanta, GA, USA
The man Brown simply lacks credibility. Sad really.
victor, london, uK
Hubris?
Jan Jansen, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Gordon Brown will go down in history as the likely candidate for the most unpopular UK Prime Minister ~ Ever.
He will be blamed for the demise of the Labour Party who as a result of his actions will probably remain out of power for at least 25 Years!
Not quite the legacy he hoped for!
I
Anne Kent, Dorset,
The office of the Prime Minister has flesh in it, but no authority.
Robin, London,
Much of the problem is with the economy, the downturn of which has been out of Brown's hands...
Chris Gudgin, Peterborough,
WRONG Peter Riddell in blaming Brown for Labour's demise. Make no mistake about it Labour was going 'out of fashion' rapidly under Blair. All voters wanted was an event to crystallise their dislike of Labour. Unfortunately for Brown it happened on his watch last October when they saw a week PM
Seb, Liverpool,
The simple facts are that Brown is only a fair weather leader and absolutely useless when the going gets tough. His economics were a carefully constructed scam, he didn't deal with terrorism the security services did and all thats left are his many failures since getting into office.
Mike, Alicante, Spain
Were Brown a candidate for the job he wouldn't even make the short list. He is long on detail and short on presence unlike his predecessor who was the exact opposite and for that matter Cameron. Image over substance is not a pretty sight but poltics is now show biz for ugly people.
Ray Cobbett, Emsworth, Hants,
Deck chairs, Titanic, You're going down, Gordon Brown.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
Brown said he would listen. Well if he is listening he sure is not doing anything about it,. I don't think he has done a single thing other than promise more troops for Afghanistan i.e. more spend. Pushing through the Lisbon Treaty against popular opinion, clearly listening - right?
Keith Sloan, Winchester, UK
Although we are told that EU issues do not rate highly on people's list of concerns, the refusal to honour the manifesto commitment to a referendum has been a monumental mistake that has sealed Brown's fate. He backed the wrong horse - he had nothing to lose personally by holding the referendum.
John Jenkins, York,
I am pretty sure, following a recent by election, that Labours biggest problem at the next election will be maintaining the opposition benches and I think they already know it. Over to you Mr Clegg!
D Case, Newquay,
Reducing vat by 5% reduces prices by 4%: no inducement to shoppers.
Axing all offender support services: will lead to an increase in crime.
Reducing all benefits by 80%: really? Pensions? Child benefit? Industrial Injuries benefits? Housing benefit for those on minimum wages?
Unfit to vote
Simon , Richmond, England
Lets face it, the man GB has no backbone in anything he tackles.If it goes right then its all down to Gordon, If it goes badly then it is down to somebody else.I am afraid when he refused the vote on the EU, he lost a lot credibilty with voters and this is something he will never be able to recover
Sid Jacques, Durham, England
The single most over-riding feature of GB to me is his blind arrogance and refusal to acknowledge mistakes. He is also in terminal denial & reminds me of 'comical Ali' during gulf war 2, who swore blind they were beating the Americans even with an American tank in the window behind him.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
Brown claimed the credit when things were going very nicely even though he wasn't the architect of those good days, it's only right he gets the blame now. The present difficulties are a combination of worldwide events and Labour mismanagement. Brown has not been Prudent, he has been a disaster!
P.R., Banbury, UK
Lets be honest, its all down to the old question 'How can you tell when a politician is lying?' Answer: 'His lips are moving!'
MA
Mike Asacret, Cambridge, England
You forget Labour's and Brown's increasing reputation for breaking promises and reneging on commitments, ignoring public opinion when it is inconvenient and quoting it on the rare occasions it agrees with him. After 11 years of Labour we can spot spin and Brown is more guilty of it than Blair.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
Vote winning strategy for Labour or anyone...
Reduce vat to 12.5% Higher consumer spending more tax revenue
Command 20% gross lottery profits to public services. reduce concil tax
Use all offender support services to cater for victim support instead.
Reduce benefits by 80% & lose ECHR
Success
Shelly, Durham, Co Durham
I think the lies that have been told are the biggest reason for the free fall in Labour's ratings and the loss of trust. You cannot have a Prime Minister promise a referendum and then break that promise, create the 10p fiasco and deny anybody has been adversely affected . Nothing he says is believed.
Roger, swindon,
And there is worse to come. Without a very sharp upturn in popularity soon, Brown risks setting off a sauve qui peut among Labour members in marginal seats, and a wave of mutual back-stabbing among the senior party members best positioned to fight the next Leadership contest.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
There is a very simple analysis of Brown's predicament. He is a Scot attempting to lead what must become an English parliament because of devolution. Preach as he may about a United Kingdom he was instrumental in ending it.
Gordon, go back home and see if your ain folk want you.Down here we don't
A.M.Williams, Stafford,