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Labour came a humiliating fifth place behind the BNP and the Greens last night in the Henley by-election caused by Boris Johnson’s election as London Mayor.
Gordon Brown’s first anniversary as Labour leader began with the party securing only 1,066 votes, losing its £500 deposit, and having its working majority in the House of Commons cut to 65, as John Howell, the Conservative candidate, succeeded Mr Johnson in the Oxfordshire seat.
The Liberal Democrats consolidated their position in second place through their candidate, Stephen Kearney, with the Greens’ Mark Stevenson in third and Timothy Rait, of the BNP, in fourth. Richard McKenzie, the Labour candidate, was fifth with only 3.07 per cent of the vote.
On a 50.5 per cent turnout, the Tories secured 19,796 votes, the Liberal Democrats 9,680, the Greens 1,321, and the BNP 1,243. The lower turnout than the 67.9 per cent in 2005 meant that the Conservatives majority was 10,116.
Mr Howell said that his victory was “a message to Gordon Brown to get off our backs, stop the endless tax rises and help us cope with the rising cost of living”.
Although Labour have been downplaying expectations over the byelection since it was announced, claiming that they would lose their deposit with less than 5 per cent of the vote, Labour MPs still worry that the bad result will further damage morale.
The Conservatives threw substantial resources into the campaign with many MPs visiting Henley several times. They repeated the by-election tactics developed in Crewe & Nantwich, with significant backing from key figures in the key seats operation led by Lord Ashcroft.
The Liberal Democrats also put considerable effort into building up their vote under the guidance of Lord Rennard, their election guru. They hired large headquarters and organised repeated visits with Nick Clegg, the party leader. The seat is home turf for Mr Clegg, as he spent his teenage years in the Oxfordshire village of Chinnor.
Labour MPs will hope that policy announcements will distract from the bad news, continuing next week with the review of healthcare provision by Lord Darzi, the health minister.
There was a small glimmer of hope for the party last night in a YouGov poll, which indicated that the number who would vote Labour in a general election had risen five points from last month to 28 per cent. The Tories had slipped back one point to 46 per cent. However, the poll also recorded that 76 per cent were dissatisfied with Mr Brown as Prime Minister, with 49 per cent saying that he was doing a worse job than Tony Blair.
The Prime Minister suffered a further blow yesterday when it emerged that Beth Russell, one of his most trusted aides, would return to the Treasury late next month. The trade magazine PR Week reported that Jeremy Heywood, the Permanent Secretary at No 10, was trawling government departments to find a replacement for Ms Russell, who has been a member of “team Brown” for nearly a decade. This comes after the departure of Spencer Livermore as Strategy Director and Fiona Gordon, who is stepping down as political secretary.
Although the mood of Labour backbenchers continues to be poor, there is no appetite for a coup to overthrow the Prime Minister in the near future.
David Miliband, one possible successor, refused to confirm or deny his ambitions. Asked in an interview whether he wanted to be leaderin the future, he said: “I am not going there. I am utterly determined to be a very good Foreign Secretary in a Gordon Brown Government. All other speculation is literally idle.” Mr Miliband joked about Mr Brown’s woes. “I am in the slightly odd position of predicting it would be like this,” he said, referring to his appearance a year ago on Question Time, when he said that people would soon be calling for Tony Blair to come back.
Now the focus will turn to the Haltemprice and Howden by-election, where David Davis, the former Shadow Home Secretary, will be re-elected on a civil liberties platform.
Results
C hold
John Howell (C) 19,796 (57%, +3.5%)
Stephen Kearney (LD) 9,680 (28%, +1.8%)
Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.8%, +0.5%)
Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.6%)
Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.1%, -11.7%)
Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.4%, -0.1%)
Bananaman Owen (Loony) 242 (0.70%)
Derek Allpass (Eng Dem) 157 (0.45%)
C maj 10,116 (29.1%)
0.81% swing LD to C
Turnout 34,761 (50.3%, -17.6%)
(2005 C maj 12,793)
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