Peter Riddell
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A big majority of voters regard Gordon Brown as weak, a loser and not up to the job of being Prime Minister, despite a bottoming out of Labour support after the recent freefall.
The latest Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend, shows the scale of disillusionment with Mr Brown compared with the high expectations before he took office a year ago. It also shows that the Tories have moved into a big lead — 39 per cent against 26 per cent for Labour — as the best party to manage the economy.
The only, small comfort for Labour is that the sharp drop in its rating since the early spring has halted. The party is now on 28 per cent, up three points since a month ago, while the Conservatives are on 41 per cent, down 4 points. This was bound to happen at some stage as Labour support could not go on falling. Tory support may have been affected by recent allegations over the finances of some party spokesmen and MPs.
The Liberal Democrats are on 19 per cent, down one point, and other parties on 12 per cent, up three points.
However, this is still the second largest Tory lead in any Populus poll. Nineteen of the past 21 published polls, going back to late April, have put Labour at below 30 per cent, while only one poll has had the Tories below 40 per cent.
Mr Brown’s image is more negative than his own party’s. This may encourage his critics among Labour MPs to wonder whether they might be better off with another leader before the next election.
By a margin of more than two to one (67 per cent to 29), voters regard him as weak rather than strong. This is almost the mirror image of their view of David Cameron. Similarly, just a fifth see Mr Brown as a winner, and three quarters as a loser, compared with three fifths and just under a third for the Tory leader. Nearly three fifths of those who voted Labour in 2005 think Mr Brown is a loser.
A mere 25 per cent believe Mr Brown is up to the job of being Prime Minister, against 72 per cent who believe he is not. This compares with 55 and 37 per cent for Mr Cameron.
In May 2007, before Mr Brown took over from Tony Blair, expectations were high that change would be for the better. But there is now general disenchantment, particularly on the economy, standards in public life and tackling crime and anti-social behaviour. Whereas 14 months ago, 19 per cent thought the economy would get better, now just 3 per cent do, while getting worse has jumped from 25 to 82 per cent.
The economic gloom is hitting Labour hard. There was never much expectation that the level of taxes would get better (12 per cent against 4 now), but the number thinking they have changed for the worse has risen from 47 per cent to 69.
Similarly, the number saying that Labour is the best party on managing Britain’s economy well in bad times as well as good has declined from 51 per cent last September, to 35 per cent last December and to just 26 per cent now. The Conservatives enjoy a clear lead, at 39 per cent, up 5 points since December.
*Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,507 adults aged over 18 by telephone between July 4 and 6. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. For more details go to www.populus.co.uk
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