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Labour is stuck firmly in the political doldrums as gloom about the economy deepens, according to the latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times.
The survey of more than 1,800 people, carried out on Thursday and Friday, puts the Tories on 47%, Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats 18%.
The 22-point Tory lead and the ratings of the two main parties are unchanged from last month. The Liberal Democrats have gained two points from the minor parties. Otherwise, David Cameron’s party appears to have consolidated its lead over Labour.
If there is one crumb of comfort for Gordon Brown, it is that Labour may have hit rock bottom. In terms of both Labour’s popularity and his own ratings, the slide has stopped, at least for now.
The prime minister’s personal rating has even managed to edge up slightly. Last month it was negative by 62 points, this time it has crawled up to -58. This is a far cry from last summer, however, when he enjoyed a positive rating of 48 points. Cameron’s positive rating of 33 points is slightly down on last month’s 37.
If there is another bright spot for the prime minister it is that the slump in his own and Labour’s fortunes is directly linked to the economy’s deterioration. In August last year, when the credit crisis broke, Labour was on 42% and enjoyed a 10-point lead over the Tories.
A grim winter and spring of economic news, with soaring food and fuel bills and falling house prices, have hit Labour hard. If the economy were to come right, ahead of a general election, the government could benefit.
For the moment, however, gloom among voters is intense. Nearly half of people, 46%, expect a recession over the next 12 months, up from 31% in June. Another 27% expect no growth at all, meaning almost three-quarters think that the economy will stagnate at best. Such pessimism could become self-reinforcing.
The proportion of people expecting house prices in their area to fall over the next 12 months has also risen sharply. In March, 35% thought prices would fall. Now 76% do, up from 68% last month, and 32% think the fall will be more than 10%.
In response to the credit crunch and sharply rising food and energy prices, 29% say they have cut back “significantly” on other spending. A slightly higher proportion of poorer households, 32%, have cut back than middle-class households. The biggest losers appear to be families with children, 40% of whom have reduced spending.
Rising petrol and diesel prices mean that 43% of people are choosing to make fewer car journeys, while 33% are driving more slowly to preserve fuel.
Two-thirds, 67%, say they are watching their gas and electricity use more closely, while 29% plan fewer holidays and short breaks.
There is also a firm rejection, by more than two to one, of the plans of Alistair Darling, the chancellor, to increase vehicle excise duty – road tax – on older cars, which the Treasury admitted last week would adversely affect 9m motorists.
Only 26% said it was right that cars with above-average CO2 emissions should pay more in tax, while 64% said it was another example of a retrospective “stealth” tax dressed up as a green measure.
Brown fared better with his recommendation last week that families should waste less food in response to the sharp rise in prices in recent months. While 47% said he “has a cheek” and was trying to divert attention away from problems the government had helped to create, 46% said households probably do waste too much food.
Asked whether their own households could waste less food, 7% said they could waste a lot less and 33% said they could save a little by wasting less food.
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