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Ministers today said it was "blindingly obvious" that violent crime, burglaries and far-right extremism could rise in Britain as the effects of the economic downturn took their toll.
Tony McNulty, the Home Office Minister, said that the contents of a leaked document by Jacqui Smith, containing the warnings about ramifications of such a slowdown, showed that the economic decline would have a profound social and criminal impact.
The leaked document, not cleared for release by the Home Secretary, sets out a series of warnings. She writes that Britain also faces a “significant increase” in alcohol and tobacco smuggling, hostility towards migrants and even a potential rise in the number of people joining terrorist groups.
Revenue raised from issuing new visas is also set to fall as people stop travelling, passport fees will drop and police funding will come under extreme pressure, according to a copy of the report, Responding to Economic Challenges, seen by The Times.
But Mr McNulty said this morning: “Previous experience dictates that, to an extent, when we do have a slowdown in the economy, some aspects of crime may go up.”
He added: “This really is a statement of the blindingly obvious - people would be astonished if the Home Office weren’t looking at how the relationship between crime and the criminal justice system and the economy interact and relate with each other.
“What the letter also says, albeit a draft, is that we are better placed now than we were with equivalent problems in the ’70s and ’90s to tackle them.”
Ms Smith's revelations show that - while most Britons had only considered the effects on the economic downturn on their food, fuel and housing bills - the credit crisis is likely to affect them in other, more sinister ways.
Based on models from the last recession in 1991-92, Ms Smith's briefing note tells Gordon Brown that violent crime is set to grow at a rate of 19 per cent while theft and burglaries could rise by up to 7 per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2009.
“Our modelling indicates that an economic downturn would place a significant upward pressure on acquisitive crime and therefore on overall crime figures,” Ms Smith says.
The report reveals that the Home Office has allocated £300 million for security for the 2012 Olympics and that there could also be a rise in people turning to extremist groups and racism because of “a real or perceived sense of disadvantage held by individuals”.
The report added: “Grievances based on experiencing racism is one of the factors that can lead to people becoming terrorists."
The report highlights Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities as those most vulnerable to such effects because of low employment rates and having the highest percentage of children living in households with income 60 per cent below the average.
A tightening in the economy is also expected to bring a significant rise in fuel, alcohol and tobacco smuggling and illegal-working migrant numbers could swell as job opportunities fall.
A Home Office spokesman said that the department did not comment normally on leaked documents but the report was a draft advice on which the Home Secretary had not yet signed off. It had not been sent to No 10.
“It is, however, appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas. We are confident that we have the right systems in place to respond flexibly to changing economic needs, and are well positioned to face future challenges.”
Dominic Grieve, the Shadow Home Secretary, said the Home Office was “patently not equipped to cope”.
“It is deeply disturbing that a department as shambolic as the Home Office already is facing such problems as a result of the economic downturn," he said.
“Now we see that the consequences of Gordon Brown’s complete mismanagement of the economy will not just hit hard-working families in the pocket but will also threaten their security and safety.”
Damian Green, the Shadow Immigration Minister, said that ministers needed to come clean on which operations at the Border Agency were under threat and suggested scrapping the identity card scheme immediately.
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But -- but -- but "diversity" is a "strength"! Britain and the rest of the greatly "strengthened" West will breeze right through a recession! Nothing to worry about-- a world of eternal puppies, bunnies, sunshine and rainbows is just on the other side. How do I know? The multi-cultis told me so.
MaryJ, San Francisco, USA
Documents like this are NOT LEAKED.
Politically it is easier to comment on a leak that no-one owns up to, than to make a statement. Do try to keep up!
Alan, Houghton-Le-Spring,
One suspects that more local council officials doling out on the spot fines will be lynched when people start to feel the economic pinch.
Every cloud, eh?
Paul, London,
The majority of decent people, whatever their race or religion have to understand that "democracy" in the UK is a sham. Politics works in the interests of the few to "divide and rule" the majority.
Wake up! Question everything! See through the lies and expose them. Demand honesty and decency!
Anthony, Preston, UK
The immigrants and the hyper-inflationary depression were CREATED to engineer such a state of affairs. This is the plan. The nexrt step will be the introduction of a police state. And most people have fallen for it.
Henry Barlow, Coventry, England
This government givens you what you don't want; legislation that stops your kids having a bouncey castle. yet gives you nothing that you do want; legislation that imprisons civil servants that lose your personal data.
Barry, woking, uk
This is how bad things have got, a few thousand prisoners were offered early release this year, most of them rejected it. Why do people prefer to be in prison rather than on the outside?? Its simple, wages are so low and TAX TAX TAX is everywhere. Why don't the government tax air?
Graham, St. Albans, uk
It was also blindingly obvious that letting huge numbers of immigrants enter the country (particularly those with no qualifications or from the 3rd world) was going to cause social tensions here, yet Labour did nothing to stop it. We have ethnic/religious tensions which cld & shd have been avoided.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
Quite startling to see Labour basically admitting that they have lost control. It's a complete abdication of responsibility.
No-one can now be in any doubt about the incompetence of this ''government''. There should be a vote of no confidence and a general election called.
michael clarke, High Wycombe, UK
I would be getting *very* worried if I was a Nuliebour person, after what they have done to this country, economically and socially. What was it the French did to their traitors at the end of WW2 again?
Sarah, Ealing,
And for this the ZANULabour venal politicians demand to be paid more...
The rotten government caused all this by encouraging and rewarding greed,treason and selfishness.
H E Torrance, London, England
It's also 'blindingly obvious' that everything this pathetic Government has touched over the last 11 years has fallen to pieces. For pities sake GET OUT.
Roger, Surrey.,
this crazy Government is always telling us the obvious, sure crime increases when more people become financially desperate, Home Secretary Smith comments once again displays Browns micky mouse don't know what to say next in cabinet, they will be having a debate as to why Night follows day next
brendan Buffini, maidstone, england
Can't the last lingering Nuliebour supporters see what's been done? Bliar, Brown, Harperson and all the rest of them have sold us ALL out!!! They don't care about the indigenous working classes., and NOR do the unions!! All they want is low paid/state dependent immigrants who will vote for them!!!
Arthur, Pimlico, London,
The cause of Muslim terrorism is our presence in Muslim countries not the BNP here.
Our party (the BNP) would address Muslim grievances by returning home our troops from Muslim lands but ask in return that Muslims in our country return home to their lands, surely a fair solution.
Charles Mather, Wigan, England
I am sure there will be increased violence and racial tension and it will be the fault of the government for allowing vast numbers of immigrants into the country to reduce 'wage inflation' .
There is always a penalty for being supine to the free market.
Nick, telford, uk
Owen, London, UK
The "boom" as you call it was nothing but a sham financed by personal debt and cheap imported labour, and now it's all going horribly and predictably wrong. I would rather have stayed a bit "poorer" and maintained the social stability and racial harmony of this country.
Rob, Westminster,
If Labour hadn't adopted a "come here and help yourself to our country" policy for eleven years this might not be such a problem eh?
David, St Albans, UK
Phase 2 of the economic catastrophe that NuLab have fuelled. This is potentially the most serious phase as social disorder hits people who are struggling with an onerous tax system and profligate public sector.
The final phase will see a new political & social direction. Let's hope for the better!
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
Any connection between this leaked letter and government plans to build Titan prisons??
John Grieves, Ulverston,
In the last two recessions it was not necessary to think in this way. Maybe our leaders are worried for themselves, eh? They're probably building bunkers right now in Parliament Square, plus calling in the SAS to protect them and asking the US to send an aircraft carrier. Forget the citizens, eh?
john problem, Hackney Wick, UK
"Far-right extremism". The usual dismissive label for British people sick to death of seeing their country ruined by the weak, smug, arrogant, incompetent, corrupt lot that make up the major parties. Now that the "tax & spend" economy has caught up with Labour, they fear people will look and see.
L Stewart, Spalding, England
What an awful mess this government has made of our country.
Teresa , London, England
Owen,
the economic boom has nothing to do with immigration, but everything to do with an economy based on debt. All the immigrants have done is make the bosses richer & the indiginous workers poorer. Of course if you dont have to get your hands dirty you probably wouldnt know this!
Pete, St Albans, England
Ain't life great under NuLabour? Massive economic mismanagement, a disastrous open-door immigration "policy" and in-yer-face interference. Cheers guys, for totally messing up the country and ruining our lives!
Kaydee, UK/Saudi Arabia,
Tough on Crime (early release);Tough on the causes of Crime( Recession,? Immigration? ) How we loved him!
R James, Clifton, UK
Ministers today said it was "blindingly obvious" that violent crime, burglaries and far-right extremism could rise in Britain as the effects of the economic downturn took their toll.
It is also blindingly obvious that Nu Labour are incomptent and have not got any idea what they are doing.
Edwin, Bucharest,
F. Simpson - You do realise that the economic boom you and I have been enjoying for the last 11 years wouldn't have been possible without all those nasty immigrants that you despise so much?
Owen, London, UK
"The report highlights Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities as those most vulnerable to such effects because of low employment rates and having the highest percentage of children living in households with income 60 per cent below the average."
Any doubts? They brought their baggages too!
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India
So if they know all this, what are they going to do about it? This Government has profited from a global boom that was based on excessive borrowing from irresponsible financial institutions. We are seeing how good Labour really are now that things are on the turn! I wish us all luck!
Sara, London, UK
We are now funding Labour by giving handouts to whoever arrives with the hope that when they get their passport, they will also vote labour.
The other point is that the foreseen downturn, and the eventual strain on the coffers, didnt stop Mps voting themselves an inflation busting pay rise!!!
Elisa, Cambridge, UK
The UK has to give up the political correctness and get back to creating real people with personalities. People are so afraid to speak that we now have leaders who fumble along doing what looks good and not whats right!
With this retoric, Labour should call immediate elections!
Tony, Brighton, UK
There is a security 'industry' in this country which must be fed.
A night in the cells now costs the taxpayer more than a night at the Ritz.
With recession will come cuts to the police budget.
The blindingly obvious conclusions in this 'leak' are an attempt to maintain the gravy train.
Douglas Maxwell, Richmond, Yorkshire
Tris, you can't blame Mrs Thatcher, like the next Government, she had a real mess to clear up that the previous Labour Party had left behind.
Who ever is next in power, like her, will have to put up taxes to pay back the shortfall and borrowing that Labour has encouraged.
Stone, Enger, Germany
Cheer up everybody things aint so bad... I often think this when I see the new nurserys, schools, health centres and leisure centres that have been built in the last ten years. Never voted labour in my life but they haven't done too bad compared to the last lot!
Alan, Bristol, England
What then, are we paying this woman for?
michael clarke, High Wycombe, UK
You only blame the government for mass immigration, no zero tolerance on the streets. They have caused this situation and you do not feel english any more you are a foreigner in your own country. Close the borders now and throw all the asylum seekers out once for all and bring this country back.
F. Simpson, Leics,
Tris-"You can't put all the blame on them. Government in the UK has been hopless for a very long time." So you are still saying todays government is hopeless?But it's not their fault?Worse, a labour government is continuing the faults of Thatcher nearly2decades ago. 11years in office&no change.GREAT
Ross, Sheffield, United Kingdom
the womens a genious when it comes to stating the obvious did she have to pass a test to be home secertary because anybody who lives in the real world knows. its just took mrs smith a bit longer to catch on
brian rice, halifax, u.k
How will the Govt. spin this story?
Gordon will remind us -as he always does- that as Chancellor he kept inflation and interest rates low.
Of course, this all happened at the same time that the Fed Funds rate was slashed to 1% and Alan Greenspan spoke about the pernicious effects of deflation.
Paul, Singapore,
Kay, I'm no appologist for Labour, but this government is only continuing the policies of Mrs Thatcher. You can't put all the blame on them. Government in the UK has been hopless for a very long time.
tris, dundee,
The true crime is that of Gordon Brown who has stripped wealth from all but the very privileged in a misguided pursuit of his socialist, redistribution policy.
To have taken money from pensioners and raised the tax of the very poorest is beyond belief and he must go.
A.Williams, Cradley Heath,
Britain needs to face up to the consequences from its actions in the past in order to deal with the racial tension, immigration and welfare problems that we have now. Until that is settled, there will not be enough social cohesion to turn anything around.
Jamie Howlett, London, UK
poverty does not cause crime, i grew up in the 60s and we were poor, but honest, and we had values and discipline, young kids today are out of control, bcus this gov has given them to much to soon,when is this man going to admit that he got it wrong and stop blaming it all on the economy
kay, london,
more crime than what you already got?
almost impossible!
riccardo, brussels,
The rise of theft is not a problem, people simply get an on-the-spot fixed penalty. Is there any wonder why crime pays, regardless of whether the country is hitting into a recession or otherwise?
dominik, london, uk
Dare we suggest it? More police out on the beat enforcing the law instead of at desks enforcing political correctness.
Richard Crompton, Baden, Switzerland
'Jacqui warns' does she ? Well perhaps she should act, because so far she's done nothing to reduce crime - ZILCH comes to mind !!!!!!!
ian payne, WALSALL,
2 'unforeseen' results of the unfettered immigration policy pursued by Labour for so long: a rise in far-right extremism & disaffected ethnic groups resorting to terrorism. Both entirely predictable by anyone except our Govt. At last the Home Office is talking straight but Gordon will go into denial
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
How will this corrupt incompetent New Labour rabble try and spin out of this story.
When will they learn that they would get far more respect if they actually told the truth about problems instead of their constant lying and denials.
Well done to the person who leaked this document.
John Moore, Paphos, Cyprus