Peter Riddell
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Gordon Brown is now seen as being much farther away from the position of the average voter than Tony Blair was when he was Prime Minister, according to a Populus poll for The Times.
The poll, undertaken at the weekend, shows that voters have sharply revised their view of Mr Brown over the past year, seeing him as much more left-wing than in early September 2007, at the end of his brief honeymoon as Prime Minister. This is the biggest change for any leader or party over the period.
However, Mr Brown is narrowly nearer both to the Centre and to the average voter than David Cameron, who is seen as shifting to the right.
As in the past five years, Populus has conducted a special poll of voters' views about the main parties and their leaders before the annual conference season (of 1,008 adults between September 5 and 7). This is the first instalment and further details will appear before each of the three main conferences (for more details go to www.populus.co.uk).
Voters have been asked to place themselves, the three main parties and their leaders on a Left-Right spectrum. Political opinions are more complicated than just this measure (for instance, covering liberal versus authoritarian), but the spectrum provides a revealing pointer about how voters view politics and how their opinions change.
On a 0 to 10 scale, Left to Right, the position of the average voter fluctuates from year to year in a narrow band, slightly to the right of Centre. The average voter is now on 5.17, compared with 5.33 last year, but exactly the same position as five years ago.
Mr Blair uncannily was exactly where the average voter was, at 5.29 in 2006. A year ago, when the public had a favourable view of Mr Brown, he was on 5.16, 0.31 to the right of 2006.
However, Mr Brown's rating has shifted sharply to the left in the past 12 months, by 0.58 to 4.58. This is despite his attempts to portray himself as a reformer with the new Labour mantle and despite the sharp criticisms of him by left-wing commentators and MPs. Mr Brown is seen as to the left of other leaders, their parties and voters.
Those polled perceive Mr Cameron as shifting to the right, by 0.25 to 5.88. But both he and Mr Brown are much farther from the average voter than Mr Blair was during his premiership.
The Tory party has moved to the right, by 0.15 over the past year, to 5.91. This is 0.74 away from the average voter, more than double the gap with Labour, now on 4.82, despite a 0.38 leftward position shift in the past year.
The poll therefore shows that, despite the shift away from the average voter by Mr Brown and Labour, Mr Cameron and his party still have a long way to go to be where the average voter is. On a five-year comparison, the Tories have, however, moved 0.30 nearer the Centre, Labour 0.12 farther away.
Nick Clegg is seen as fractionally to the left of Sir Menzies Campbell, who stepped down as Liberal Democrat leader last October. Mr Clegg is now on 4.62, against 4.66. This is slightly to the left of where his party is seen.
Labour voters, now a smaller number than a year ago, put their party well to the right of where voters generally place their party, at 5.87, against 4.82.
Lib Dem voters have put Labour at 4.52 on the spectrum, which is well to the left of last year's 5.20, while they have put the Tory Party at 6.10, 0.13 points closer to the Centre.
Men put themselves to the right of women, at 5.21 against 5.13, roughly the same gender gap as recent years.
The over-65s put themselves farther to the right than other age groups, though much less than previously, at 5.55, against 5.96. By contrast, 18 to 24-year-olds are on 4.92, compared with 5.03 a year ago.
For the first time in these surveys, professionals and managers are not the farthest to the left, or closest to the centre, of any social group. They are now on 5.09, against 5.13 over the past two years.
By contrast, unskilled manual workers, who were farthest to the right in the first four annual surveys, are now narrowly farthest to the left, on 5.07, compared with 5.38 last year.
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Bruin left wing? - tosh!- Neo-Tory is nearer the mark
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
The "average" uk voter would probably have to be muzzled if allowed anywhere near a Labour Politician...
Marc, Singapore,
Brown is a good example of the Peter Principle in action. Being promoted above your abilities.
JL Ronish, seattle , usa