It is a plot driven by belief, panic and, to a lesser extent, revenge. Belief that Gordon Brown is leading Labour to certain disaster. Panic because that involves the loss of parliamentary seats and jobs. And revenge for Mr Brown’s past behaviour and the efforts of his allies to belittle Tony Blair.

But it is a plot without a denouement, because no one can tell who would take Mr Brown’s place, and it is a plot without plot-lines. If this was supposed to be an organised conspiracy, the architect would have been dismissed long ago.

Does any of that help Mr Brown? No. Because the most palpable emotion in Downing Street this week has been fear; fear of the unknown. That many of the political events of recent weeks appear to have happened by accident means that Mr Brown cannot rely on the usual intelligence, such as the whips’ office and backbench spies.

The apparent lack of coordination between the different rebel factions and the haphazard nature of their actions adds to the sense of impotence in Labour’s high command.

When, at the end of July, David Miliband suddenly set out his leadership stall with an article that outlined how Labour could defeat the Tories, without once mentioning Mr Brown, he took MPs and even his closest friends by surprise. When Charles Clarke returned to the fray two weeks ago with another warning about Labour’s plight, friends, some in the Cabinet, questioned his timing.

When Siobhain McDonagh emerged last Friday as one of about a dozen MPs who had asked for leadership nomination papers, resulting in her swift dismissal as a whip, the disclosure was not at a time of her choosing. She and others had made the requests quietly several days before, planning to make them public later. There were two theories: either the media was tipped off by a Labour machine anxious to get the news out before the conference, or rebel leaders, worried about a BBC report suggesting the threat to Mr Brown was receding, acted to show that it was not.

When David Cairns, a little-known Scotland Office minister, was reported on Tuesday as having huge misgivings about Mr Brown, again the timing of the revelation was not his. He had been thinking about quitting, but not on Tuesday. Someone tipped off the press that he was havering. After resigning he steadfastly professed that he was part of no plot; and it was true up to a point.

In the fevered world of the Parliamentary Labour Party most people know what the rest are thinking: MPs are often happier to tell reporters about their friends rather than themselves. That may have been the case with Mr Cairns. But an analysis by The Times of the MPs known and suspected of being unhappy with Mr Brown has found some surprising links between the various pockets of discontent that have come together to leave Mr Brown in great peril.

In recent days Mr Brown’s opponents have emerged regionally as the Lancashire mafia, the Scottish mafia, and a group in the North East. Those most worried are those in marginal seats who believe they have no future with Mr Brown. Another disaffected group are those who fell in behind Frank Field to oppose the abolition of the 10p tax rate.

Surprisingly, the biggest clue of all is in the list of MPs who backed Hazel Blears in last year’s deputy leadership contest. Ms Blears came last in the contest, no shock because she was the only Blairite candidate at a time when Blairism was at its lowest point. She is loyal to Mr Brown, but look at her parliamentary supporters and you find Siobhain McDonagh, Jim Dowd, Janet Anderson, George Howarth, Barry Gardiner and Joan Ryan, all of whom called for nomination papers this week. Stephen Byers, John Reid, Alan Milburn and John Hutton, some of Mr Brown’s strongest critics, are also there, as are Eric Joyce, Caroline Flint and Paddy Tipping, who have left suspicions that they are not fully enamoured with Mr Brown.

Link these names to the Lancashire mafia and some of them match. The Lancashire mafia has been identified as Ms Anderson, Mr Field, Mr Howarth, Greg Pope, Gordon Prentice and Graham Stringer. Ms Anderson and Mr Howarth are close to Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, although he has made plain that he does not support their actions.

Over in the North East are several MPs who continue to burn a candle for Mr Blair, including Mr Byers, Mr Milburn, Mr Miliband and Hilary Armstrong. Some of the same names were among the strongest opponents of the 10p tax decision: Mr Stringer, Mr Pope, Mr Field and Ms Anderson, plus Peter Kilfoyle, who has joined the clamour of a contest.

Other rebels worked together during the Blair years. Ms Armstrong was Chief Whip between 2001 and 2006 and the office, whose incumbents included Ms Ryan and Jim Murphy, was seen as a hothouse for antiBrown sentiment.

Bonds of friendship link several rebels. Many Brownites have seen the hand of Margaret McDonagh, the former Labour general secretary who fell out with Mr Brown, behind the events of the last week. She lives with her sister, Siobhain McDonagh, and both are close to Mr Cairns, who was also Siobhain McDonagh’s researcher. Baroness McDonagh is also close to Mr Howarth, which draws their circle closer to Mr Straw.

Ms Anderson is a close friend of Mr Dowd, and Mr Milburn once shared a flat with Mr Hutton and introduced him to the future Mrs Hutton.

During the Blair years, Mr Milburn, Mr Reid and Mr Byers used to meet in Mr Milburn’s office and agree the political strategy ahead of Cabinet every week. The meetings were often attended by Mr Hutton.

Brown allies are fond of pointing out the disorganisation of recent political events. But the roots of disaffection with Mr Brown are now so spread that the truth is dawning on No 10 that this is less of an organised plot and more of a insurgency.

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