If Gordon Brown's future was to be determined by the Labour conference, he would be home and dry. His audience loved his fightback speech in Manchester this afternoon, punctuating it with standing ovations and giving their leader the kind of reception offered to the best Blair addresses.

Unfortunately for Mr Brown his fate remains in the hands of other forces. What no-one knew as they filed out of the conference hall was whether the enthusiasm which they had accorded to Mr Brown would be shared in any way by the people outside.

Mr Brown knows how to tug at his party's heartstrings and today he did it throughout. He got his biggest cheers when he extolled Labour's role as an interventionist government, helping people through the economic hard times, demonstrating the power of the party to change people's lives. They loved his passage on the NHS, as Mr Brown appeared to choke back the tears when he spoke of his sight being saved by the health service with care that his parents could never have afforded.

He had the strongest possible message to his critics. He was going on because Britain needs a strong man at the helm in these tough times. His remark that "this is no time for a novice" went down a storm with delegates, who assumed it was aimed mainly at David Cameron. But on reflection they would swiftly have realised that it could have been directed at David Miliband or other pretenders to his crown.

Mr Brown has won important breathing space. How long it will last no one knows. He will watch how the Tory conference goes and sees whether he gets any credit in the polls for his handling of the economic crisis.

If his position still looks weak he will almost certainly carry out the reshuffle that has long been expected. If his performance today strengthens him, the revamp will be delayed.

Mr Brown was expected to make a powerful speech today, and delivered. His Cabinet colleagues - most of them at least - believe he should be given time, even though most of them have doubts over whether he can turn it round. He is over the first hurdle. There are many more to be cleared before he can be certain of fighting the next electon as Labour leader.

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