Jonathan Oliver
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When Andrew Mitchell, the Conservative overseas aid spokesman, said the credit crunch could be “an incredibly good moment for us”, he was simply stating what other senior party figures were thinking but knew they were not supposed to say out loud.
Today in Birmingham David Cameron and George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, will answer directly the charge made by Gordon Brown last week that they are “novices” unfit to lead Britain through the economic storm. The Tory leader will expose himself to detailed questions on the crisis in an effort to display his financial literacy.
Shadow cabinet allies have been reminding journalists that Cameron obtained a first-class degree in economics from Oxford, formulated fiscal policy as a Treasury aide during the 1990s, and has worked as a senior executive in the City.
To be accurate, the degree was a joint honours in politics, philosophy and economics, his spell at the Treasury coincided with Black Wednesday and the City job was in fact a spell as a public relations man for Carlton television. But the point the Cameroons are making is that their man is perfectly capable of going head to head with Brown on the financial nitty-gritty.
Tomorrow will see the second phase of the Tory bid to recast themselves as the party for the “new austerity”, as Osborne announces detailed policies aimed at curbing the culture of debt, both corporate and government, which has caused the present crisis.
The centrepiece is the creation of statutory limits on government borrowing that Osborne hopes will do for fiscal policy what the independence of the Bank of England did for monetary policy. Labour’s move in 1997 to create an independent monetary policy committee is widely credited with keeping inflation under control over the past decade.
The establishment of a similar “independent fiscal committee” would keep public borrowing in check and curb the natural instincts of politicians to spend their way out of unpopularity.
Osborne will announce proposed restrictions on banks, giving powers to the Bank of England to force financial institutions to hold higher levels of capital than has been the case in recent years. This would mean that, in future, banks would have to get used to more modest levels of profit - and lower bonuses for top bankers.
The Conservatives have in the past been accused by Labour critics of lacking properly worked-through policies, preferring to travel light and talk instead about “values” and “aspirations”.
During the Labour conference one cabinet minister said: “In the year before the 1997 election we were regularly answering technical questions about whether our inflation target would be 2% or 2.5%. I don’t see the Tories anywhere close to where we were.”
The next few days in Birmingham could neutralise this criticism, as shadow ministers issue an avalanche of statistics and detailed legislative plans, not just about financial policy but also schools, healthcare, pensions, transport and the family.
Labour focus groups routinely show that voters agree with the portrayal of Cameron as “slick salesmen”. So this week expect to see Cameron and Osborne present a more managerial image. There are rumours that Cameron might even deliver his main speech from behind a lectern.
The Conservatives are still wedded to a policy of “sharing the proceeds of growth”, offering tax cuts when the economy allows. But they warn there is likely to be little headroom in at least the first two years.
There is speculation Osborne may instead look initially at tax redistribution. Some on the modernising wing of the party would like him to move into traditional Labour territory with a supertax on the highest earners to help keep the professional classes out of the 40% tax band, which kicks in at £34,600. It would be breaking a Tory taboo, but for this leadership taboos are there to be broken.
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