Peter Riddell
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The Conservatives have strengthened their position in the polls after the party conference season, even though support for Labour has bottomed out after falling sharply over the summer, according to a new Populus poll for The Times.
The poll, undertaken over the weekend, shows that the public is worried, but not panicking, about the global financial turmoil; does not blame the Government; admires Gordon Brown’s experience; but does not believe the reshuffle will alter anything, and clearly thinks it is time for a change.
Nearly two-fifths (37 per cent) say they are worried about the safety of money they have in banks and building societies, compared with 45 per cent in the USA, according to a recent Gallup poll for USA Today. By contrast, 56 per cent in Britain, and 51 per cent in America, say they are not worried. Women are a bit more worried about the safety of their savings than men, 41 to 33 per cent.
Labour has retained some of the post-Manchester bounce shown in polls last week, while there has been some post-Birmingham bounce (or bounce back) for the Tories.
Compared with the last Populus poll at the end of August, the Tories are on 45 per cent, up two points, while Labour is now on 30 per cent, up three points. Six of the last 11 published polls have put Labour at around this level, suggesting that its slump since the Budget may have bottomed-out.
The main losers are the Liberal Democrats, on 15 per cent, down three points. Apart from Vince Cable’s round the clock media appearances on the banking crisis, the Lib Dems have largely been squeezed out of media attention since their conference in Bournemouth in mid-September.
Mr Brown’s leader index, on a 0 to 10 rating, has risen since June from 3.9 to 4.38, but this is still lower than before last spring. David Cameron retains the highest rating, virtually unchanged at 5.24, while Nick Clegg, at 4.20, down from 4.45, is back where he was in the spring.
The Tories will obviously be relieved. But the poll suggests that voters are not shifting because of the financial crisis. On competence, who do you most trust to deal with Britain’s economic problems, the Cameron/George Osborne team has been static since the spring on 38 per cent, against 31 per cent for Brown and Alistair Darling. The number saying neither or don’t know has more than doubled to 29 per cent since a year ago. This suggests a degree of uncertainty about whether either of the main parties’ teams can deal with current economic troubles.
Just 12 per cent believe the British Government deserves most blame for the banking crisis, against 15 per cent blaming people who took out loans and mortgages they couldn’t really afford and 26 per cent American mortgage lenders. Some 12 per cent blame the American Government, 11 per cent British banks, 11 per cent the Financial Services Authority, and 4 per cent the Bank of England.
Mr Brown scores well on experience, at 77 per cent against 11 per cent for Mr Cameron. But the Tory leader is ahead on good judgement, by 40 to 36 per cent, on representing change by 60 to 22 per cent, and on character by 50 to 32 per cent. Nearly everyone, 97 per cent, say good judgement is a very important attribute in a Prime Minister, while 88 per cent say experience, and virtually the same number change and character.
The change card looks a winner for the Tories. Some 65 per cent say it is time for a change (up 11 points since September last year), while 30 per cent say it is better to stick with the devil you know ( minus 13 points).
The return of Peter Mandelson has made no difference. Just 35 per cent say the reshuffle has renewed and refreshed the Government; 29 per cent say it is stronger; while 63 per cent say shifting ministers “will not change anything- the Government has run out of steam and it is time for a change”.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,503 adults aged over 18 by telephone between October 3 and 5. For more details, see www.populuus.co.uk.

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dead right, James Thurston, Daventry, Maggie's deregulation of the city prevented common sense measures such as fixing a deposit/ lending ratio for banks by law.now even Bruin is borrowing to lend, a practice that dumped us in the manure in the first place
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Im with you James Thurston. We should not forget a free market and a self-regulated city were hailed as wonderful things by the Thatcher government all those years ago.
It takes nearly 20 years for those kinds of chickens to come home to roost.
Jo, Newton Abbot, England
Whilst we must not forget that although new Labour has been in power for 11 years, who was it that created the culture which has led to this chaos?
It was Maggie Thatcher and the Tories who destroyed manufacturing and said we could live in a purely service based economy. Cue current disaster!!
James Thurston, Daventry, Northamptonshire
What many are failing to see from the announcements are that Brown and Darling have broken key golden rules to help out the bankers. Nothing for average families, very little detail in the plan to lend funds just money for bankers. Good work if you can get it.
This is worse that the tories
G, Worcester,
Sadly, those who do not take a daily interest in politics will have no idea that this is all Brown's fault. Man the lifeboats if they win the next election; and I say that as one who voted Labour in his first vote in 197o until Iraq.
I apologise unreservedly.
Jeremy Poynton, Frome, England
desperate brainwashed Labour die hards cannot talk about the last 11 years Russ yes were a little like you desperate to get your tax cuts at the expense of the masses, desperate for inheritance tax cuts. what you dont understand is that not all people are wealthy, the tories look after their own
Graham Bromley, Rotherham, South Yorks
unemployment is nearer 5 million
Nulabour moved loads onto Incapacity and so not count anyone on a pointless training course
billy, cardiff, Wales
We have to ditch the party system used here and have a government of people who work solely for the benefit of this country. A change of government will be swapping one bunch of losers for another.
Kate, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England
Experience will win the day and when it comes to the real and hard decision of choosing a Government, the Conservatives will be found wanting.
Craig Stewart, Clydebank, Scotland, United Kingdom
I'm not alone in thinking that Gordon is actually handling this utterlly international financial crisis pretty well on behalf of us all - look at the total chaos in Europe and the US (not to mention that Iceland has the same financial prospects as Zimbabwe).My rating of Gordon has improved greatly.
Roarke, Wembley, UK
These desperate brainwashed Labour die hards cannot talk about the last 11 years, the same as the numbskulls in government ! The tories don't have to mention Wilson etc. as people can see what Labour does for you now. Perhaps if Labour stopped going on about Thatcher people might listen.
Russ, Aberdeen, Scotland
As long as the British public can afford this government, good luck to them.
David Masu, Zürich, Switzerland
Every single Labour Government has left the country worse off economically at the end of its term in office than it was at the beginning, and in many cases they have left the country in economic crisis. This one is different only by degree : it's probably the worst there's ever been.
john, Oxford, England
Give someone a long enough piece of rope & they will hang themselves, this is what I believe the Tories are allowing Labour to do! No good Brown bleating on that he has the experiance after 12 years as chancellor and 18 months as PM.prudence should have protected our key financial insts from this!
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
"public is not yet panicking about the financial turmoil and does not blame the Government"
More fool the British public.
bob, Geneva, Switzerland
Cast your mind back a bit further to last Labour Government. Rocketing unemployment, wall to wall strikes, loans from the IMF.... While the last Tory Government made a mess of the ERM, the economy was growing nicely when Blair won. Mr end-of-boom-and-bust will leave us as Calaghan did - bust
David Williams, Bedford, United Kingdom
As we have said it's change of Ministers/policy that's needed. How about PR, regional assemblies, elected Lords and delegated government services plus a Bill of Rights and a Constitutional Court. Lots of Centre Left policies, no we just have Welfare reform and 2 million new unemployed, Well done!!!
James , Brighton, England
I hardly think that the brown envelope brigade from the Tories have anything to offer this country. Think back to Norman Lamont and interest rates at 15% plus 3 million unemployed plus manufacturing sold of and decimated. No way can that lot lecture the present government. They were a shambles.
Glen, London,
tories look to blame everyone, but some of us remember the 15% intrest rates, the unemployment is good for the economy and norman singing in his bath, intrest rates going up twice in one day, oh and Labour being 20% ahead in the polls but still losing the next election,
Graham Bromley, Rotherham, South Yorks
we also remember, thatcher being the most unpopular leader the country had ever had, and then the Falklands conflict came along and rescued her, maybe this cris will be labours Falklands
Graham Bromley, Rotherham, South Yorks
Brown thought that appointing Mandelson was a clever move reinforcing his experience message, but all it has done is remind people how poor Brown's judgement is by bringing back a sleazy, twice failed politician. Brown has lost peoples trust and nobody is listening anymore, as Glenrothes will show.
Kim, Bristol,
Well, people, we are all saddled with Brown, Darling and the other losers for a while yet as Labour MPs are so desperate to cling onto their cushy jobs. History will judge this govt. for what it clearly is: a tax and waste party whose Chancellor presided over the most catastrophic bust in a century.
R.McGeddon, London, England