The Conservatives have strengthened their position in the polls after the party conference season, even though support for Labour has bottomed out after falling sharply over the summer, according to a new Populus poll for The Times.

The poll, undertaken over the weekend, shows that the public is worried, but not panicking, about the global financial turmoil; does not blame the Government; admires Gordon Brown’s experience; but does not believe the reshuffle will alter anything, and clearly thinks it is time for a change.

Nearly two-fifths (37 per cent) say they are worried about the safety of money they have in banks and building societies, compared with 45 per cent in the USA, according to a recent Gallup poll for USA Today. By contrast, 56 per cent in Britain, and 51 per cent in America, say they are not worried. Women are a bit more worried about the safety of their savings than men, 41 to 33 per cent.

Labour has retained some of the post-Manchester bounce shown in polls last week, while there has been some post-Birmingham bounce (or bounce back) for the Tories.

Compared with the last Populus poll at the end of August, the Tories are on 45 per cent, up two points, while Labour is now on 30 per cent, up three points. Six of the last 11 published polls have put Labour at around this level, suggesting that its slump since the Budget may have bottomed-out.

The main losers are the Liberal Democrats, on 15 per cent, down three points. Apart from Vince Cable’s round the clock media appearances on the banking crisis, the Lib Dems have largely been squeezed out of media attention since their conference in Bournemouth in mid-September.

Mr Brown’s leader index, on a 0 to 10 rating, has risen since June from 3.9 to 4.38, but this is still lower than before last spring. David Cameron retains the highest rating, virtually unchanged at 5.24, while Nick Clegg, at 4.20, down from 4.45, is back where he was in the spring.

The Tories will obviously be relieved. But the poll suggests that voters are not shifting because of the financial crisis. On competence, who do you most trust to deal with Britain’s economic problems, the Cameron/George Osborne team has been static since the spring on 38 per cent, against 31 per cent for Brown and Alistair Darling. The number saying neither or don’t know has more than doubled to 29 per cent since a year ago. This suggests a degree of uncertainty about whether either of the main parties’ teams can deal with current economic troubles.

Just 12 per cent believe the British Government deserves most blame for the banking crisis, against 15 per cent blaming people who took out loans and mortgages they couldn’t really afford and 26 per cent American mortgage lenders. Some 12 per cent blame the American Government, 11 per cent British banks, 11 per cent the Financial Services Authority, and 4 per cent the Bank of England.

Mr Brown scores well on experience, at 77 per cent against 11 per cent for Mr Cameron. But the Tory leader is ahead on good judgement, by 40 to 36 per cent, on representing change by 60 to 22 per cent, and on character by 50 to 32 per cent. Nearly everyone, 97 per cent, say good judgement is a very important attribute in a Prime Minister, while 88 per cent say experience, and virtually the same number change and character.

The change card looks a winner for the Tories. Some 65 per cent say it is time for a change (up 11 points since September last year), while 30 per cent say it is better to stick with the devil you know ( minus 13 points).

The return of Peter Mandelson has made no difference. Just 35 per cent say the reshuffle has renewed and refreshed the Government; 29 per cent say it is stronger; while 63 per cent say shifting ministers “will not change anything- the Government has run out of steam and it is time for a change”.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,503 adults aged over 18 by telephone between October 3 and 5. For more details, see www.populuus.co.uk.

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