The Gordon Brown bounce is real but it is neither large nor unconditional enough for Labour to entertain realistic hopes that it has turned the corner.

Mr Brown has seen a marked upturn in both his own self-confidence and his poll ratings. He has banished the dithering gibe and has appeared decisive and in command as the British rescue plan has been followed by other countries. He even had the rare pleasure of a warm welcome from eurozone leaders in Paris. His nonstop public performances are assured, while the Conservatives appear incoherent and ineffective. Leadership speculation is silenced. So Labour MPs are smiling for the first time in a year.

That all matters, not least to the Government’s morale. However, comparisons to the Falklands conflict and the bounce that boosted Mrs Thatcher’s ratings in 1982 are misleading. The situations are wholly different. And trying to draw parallels with the current dispute with Iceland, a sideshow, are ludicrous. The Falklands was a short-lived and self-contained event. Current economic troubles are not only likely to last a long time, but their impact will be much more wideranging.

First, the figures. Labour has advanced from a low of 26 to 27 per cent between May and August, according to the average of all published polls, to above 30 per cent in seven of the last eight polls, and an average of 31 to 32 per cent so far this month. But this has been largely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, as the Tories have slipped only from 45 to 46 per cent to an average of 43 to 44 per cent. As politicalbetting.com has noted, Labour needs the “Tory share to get consistently below 40 per cent before it can harbour any thoughts about David Cameron being stopped from getting a majority”.

By contrast, in 1982, as UK Polling Report has pointed out, the Tories moved from just behind, or level pegging, with Labour and the then Alliance, at about 33 per cent, before the Falklands conflict to the mid40s afterwards, with Labour down to well under 30 per cent. That is a real bounce.

Secondly, while Mr Brown’s personal rating is up, he is trusted to handle the present crisis and the rescue plan has majority support, this has not altered the underlying public mood. According to last week’s Populus poll, two thirds agree that it is “time for a change”. The latest YouGov poll shows that half the public thinks that the Government was too slow in acting and a big majority is pessimistic about the outlook for the economy and house prices.

Mr Brown is now in a stronger political position than even a few weeks ago. He has earned a second chance. But this is before the recession starts to bite, unemployment rises and real living standards are squeezed. The current bounce may not be sustained.

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