Gordon Brown for the recession; David Cameron for after the next election. That is the underlying message of the new Populus poll for The Times, the first undertaken entirely after the big cut in interest rates and Labour’s win in Glenrothes.

These factors have made the poll the best for Mr Brown and Labour since his brief honeymoon last year. Sharp month-to-month movements (plus 5 points for Labour and down 4 for the Tories) highlight recent trends. Labour bottomed out in June, picking up now to its highest level since early this year, but this has been mainly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and smaller parties. The Tory rating has slipped but it remains above 40 per cent.

As revealing are signs that voters are less jittery about the economy than a few weeks ago, despite gloomy forecasts. There is a sense that the worst of the banking crisis is over. Despite marked pessimism about the outlook for the economy (66 per cent thinking it will do badly against 31 per cent well), this is not as bad as in July, and people are now, on balance, optimistic about prospects for their families (by 51 to 44 per cent, against 66 to 32 per cent the other way).

The interest-rate cut is seen as effective by more than three quarters, with similar backing for increased capital spending, and three fifths support tax cuts. The public is more divided, however, when presented with the fiscal dilemma: 40 per cent argue that “increased public borrowing now to boost the economy in the short term even if it means higher taxes and slower spending in the long term” will be effective.

Mr Brown is getting credit for his handling of the economy. His personal rating has shot up to its highest level since July last year and he is ahead of David Cameron for the first time since then. Alistair Darling and he have moved ahead of Mr Cameron and George Osborne as most trusted to deal with Britain’s economic problems, for the first time since last spring, at 36 to 33 per cent (against 31 to 38 per cent a month ago).

Half the public (52 per cent) says that Mr Brown is the best prime minister “right now, to deal with Britain’s economy in recession”, against 32 per cent for Mr Cameron. Looking ahead, Mr Cameron still has the edge: 42 per cent think he would be better “to lead Britain forward after the next general election”, against 35 per cent for Mr Brown. Similarly, 34 per cent think that Mr Cameron “represents the kind of change and progress in Britain that Barack Obama says he represents in America”, against 30 per cent for Mr Brown.

The balance between these two feelings will define the political battleground for the next 18 months: Mr Brown as the leader of experience for the economic crisis and Mr Cameron as the agent of change. The short-term momentum is with Mr Brown, whose confidence has been boosted, but he has to translate his “man for a crisis” image into credible plans for the long term. The Tories are, for the time being, struggling to regain the initiative, as Mr Cameron will seek to do this morning with his tax plans, but we are still in the early days of the politics of recession.

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