See the YouGov / Sunday Times poll | results

The financial crisis has cut the Conservative lead over Labour to its lowest this year, according to a YouGov survey for The Sunday Times, writes David Smith.

The Tories are on 41%, down two on last month, while Labour is up three at 36%, with the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 14%. The Conservative lead, at five points, is down from 10 last month and 19 in September.

The drop in the Tory lead appears to be related to Gordon Brown’s handling of the crisis. His personal rating, while still negative, has risen by 22 points in the past month and by 41 since September.

He and Alistair Darling, the chancellor, outscore David Cameron and George Osborne by 36% to 25% on their handling of the crisis. Cameron’s rating, while still higher than Brown’s, has fallen by 17 points from its peak in the summer.

Despite the Brown boost, people are deeply gloomy about the economic outlook. Nearly two in five, 38%, fear they or a member of their close family will lose their job and 53% say they intend to spend less this Christmas compared with last year. Nearly nine in 10 — 87% — say the economy is doing badly, while 77% say it will not grow or will plunge into recession during the coming year — the highest percentage so far on this question. A year ago 8% more people expected a rise rather than a fall in house prices in their area. Now 73% more expect a fall.

Most think the Bank of England’s dramatic cut in interest rates earlier this month will make little difference. More than half, 51%, said it would not affect their spending. Only 6% said they would spend more as a result.

Many would like to see tax cuts in next week’s pre-budget report and Brown has given strong hints that he may do this. More than a third, 34%, said they favoured only tax cuts, while 19% wanted tax cuts and extra public spending. Only 6% said they just wanted an increase in spending.

Asked where any help should be targeted, 43% favoured pensioners and people on low incomes, 36% said it should be ordinary families and 12% said small businesses.

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