Peter Riddell: Political Briefing
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Gordon Brown is practising the politics of chutzpah. Faced with a big economic hole – which he has partly dug himself – his reaction has been unashamed self-confidence bordering on impudence. That is why the Tories are right to ask questions about the exchange rate, high borrowing and the sustainability of tax cuts. Indeed, Treasury officials are surprised, and relieved, that it has taken until now for the Opposition to highlight the 25 per cent-plus sterling devaluation.
Mr Brown is correct that we are in extraordinary times that require fresh remedies, but this does not justify the abandonment of all rules. At present, there is no anchor, or guide, to economic policy, apart from the promise of an eventual return to virtue well beyond the next election. The Prime Minister behaves as if this gives him freedom to attack critics for “talking down” the economy. But there are several legitimate questions. First, there is no convention against opposition spokesmen talking about the pound, according to two former Treasury permanent secretaries, with 15 years’ experience between them, George Osborne was perhaps unwise not in talking about a big past decline but in appearing to predict another. The lower pound may assist recovery but what is the government view?
Secondly, claims about coordinated fiscal measures should be treated with caution. Statements of good intention at summits do not always translate into action. The current Treasury hierarchy could have learnt a lot from yesterday’s conference on monetary instability, organised by Lombard Street Research and the Churchill Archives Centre and starring Paul Volcker, the former Fed Chairman, where the problems of past coordinated fiscal boosts were highlighted.
Thirdly, the Government is blurring the lines over higher borrowing. All parties accept the automatic rise caused by the recession. The real question is over whether to go farther and increase spending or cut taxes. Is it really possible to have temporary tax cuts, to be reversed later? Or will there be a permanent deterioration in the public finances, requiring nasty remedial action in the years ahead?
The Tory response to this autumn’s crisis has often been slow and confused, but Mr Osborne has focused on the right issues.
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