GORDON BROWN'S private polling has found that his £20 billion emergency give-away fell flat with the public, effectively killing off any chance of a snap election.

The package of temporary tax cuts in last month’s prebudget report (PBR) was designed to ease the impact of the recession and boost consumer spending.

Brown’s aides had hoped that the measures, which included 2½ percentage points off Vat and a future tax hike for the rich, would yield a poll boost, keeping open the option of an early election next year.

However, research presented to senior party figures last week showed that intended messages about helping hard-working families were “drowned out” by the £12.5 billion Vat cut, which was misunderstood and unappreciated by the public.

“All anyone seems to have noticed was the Vat cut, which they seem to see as pointless. They don’t understand what it was about,” said a party strategist. “Overall, it looks as if the PBR was a disaster.”

The effect on the chances of an early election will disappoint some Labour planners who hoped to keep open the option of a snap poll.

Although Brown’s inner circle is sceptical about going to the polls next year, fearing it would look opportunistic, some aides believe the party will have less chance of winning the longer the recession continues.

Labour’s private polling suggests that public opinion about the two main parties remains “very volatile,” with many voters changing their minds from one day to the next about how they would vote in a general election. Aides believe it would be madness to go to the country in such a climate.

Apart from the Vat cut, the most controversial measure announced by Alistair Darling was a plan to increase the top rate of tax to 45p in the pound for those earning £150,000.

Labour’s private polling suggests it has made little or no impact on the public and will not influence how people vote.

The research found that the public is overwhelmed with information about the recession, suggesting that simple political messages could be most effective. Labour MPs and party activists are being told to reiterate the mantra that the party will take decisive action to help people, as opposed to what they characterise as the Tory “do nothing” approach.

A spokesman for the Labour party denied the private polling was negative. He said: “We actually think that people support our commitment to give businesses and families real help when they need it most, rather than the Conservatives’ approach of ‘letting the recession run its course’.” Energy companies faced growing pressure to pass on the benefits of falling prices yesterday as new research showed that the gap between wholesale gas and retail prices has reached record levels.

Domestic energy bills have risen by an average of 20% over the past six months to £1,292, while wholesale gas prices have halved. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, said companies should pass on lower prices as soon as possible.

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman, said: “Prices have been coming down while the big energy companies are sitting on a windfall. There is going to be serious hardship this winter.”

According to TheEnergyShop. com, the price comparison site, householders now pay twice as much for gas as its wholesale cost. Power companies are paying 1.81p per kilowatt hour for gas, while customers pay 3.75p, excluding Vat.

The Energy Retail Association said most energy companies had bought gas in the summer when wholesale prices were at record highs.

Additional reporting: Steven Swinford

FORECAST OF 3.5M JOBLESS BY 2010

Britain is threatened with its highest levels of unemployment since the second world war, analysts have warned. Standard Chartered, the London-based bank, this weekend forecast that 3.5m people will be unemployed by the end of 2010, as gloom grew over the economic crisis.

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