SUPPORT for David Cameron has soared among Conservative supporters, mainly at the expense of Kenneth Clarke, with a week to go before the crucial first ballot of Tory MPs.

A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend after the Tory conference in Blackpool, shows a dramatic transformation in the fortunes of Mr Cameron. But David Davis, the bookmakers’ long-time front-runner, is trailing in third place, well behind Mr Clarke and Mr Cameron.

Among Tory voters, Mr Cameron’s support as the potential best leader is up from 3 to 33 per cent, where he is level pegging with Mr Clarke, whose rating has dropped by 22 points since early September.

However, Mr Davis has made no real headway, boosting his rating by only four points to 12 per cent. Liam Fox is on 7 per cent and Sir Malcolm Rifkind is on 2 per cent.

Mr Cameron does better among men (21 per cent) than women (15 per cent), and among professionals and managers (23 per cent) than unskilled workers (16 per cent).

In potential match-ups of the final two candidates to be put to Tory members next month, Mr Cameron would trounce Mr Davis by 45 to 15 per cent among Tory voters.

This is a huge swing from July, when Mr Davis was ahead by 50 to 16 per cent among Tories. Mr Cameron would also win among non-Tories, including floating voters (by 34 to 22 per cent). Among professionals and managers, Mr Cameron would win by 44 to 19 per cent. Mr Clarke would beat Mr Davis by 47 to 35 per cent among Tory voters, and by 39 to 26 per cent among the public.

The only contest that Mr Davis would win is against Dr Fox, where he would be ahead by 46 to 25 per cent among Tories, and by 31 to 20 per cent among the electorate generally.

The poll will confirm the view of all the other candidates that Mr Cameron is now their main target. The other camps have been stunned by his surge and are questioning whether he can sustain it as the campaign gets more searching and possibly dirtier.

It shows that although the speeches of Mr Cameron and Mr Clarke were acclaimed at Blackpool, Mr Cameron was the big winner because he was able to bring his less-known talents to a wider public. Most Conservative MPs, returning to Westminster, were agreed that the first round showing for Mr Davis would be crucial. If most of those MPs who have publicly signed up to him kept their promises, his campaign would be stabilised and he would be almost certain to get through to the nationwide run-off.

But if there was a significant slip in his vote, with MPs using the privacy of the ballot box to vote secretly for other candidates, he would be finished.

Senior MPs said that the first ballot, which most expect will result in the elimination of Sir Malcolm Rifkind, was important because it would act as a true opinion poll showing MPs where the support lay.

Mr Davis will spend this week trying to get back on to the front foot. He had hoped for a Commons statement on the anti-terrorism Bill to give him the opportunity, as Shadow Home Secretary, to underline his leadership credentials.

However, Charles Clarke intends to speak about the Bill to the Home Affairs Select Committee. Instead, Mr Davis used the chance of Home Office Questions to attack the Government for losing control of Britain’s borders and demanding more Special Branch officers at ports and airports.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,509 adults aged over 18 by telephone between October 7 and 9. Interviews were conducted nationwide and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more details see www.populuslimited.com.

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