DAVID CAMERON appeared certain to sail into the next round of the Tory leadership contest last night while his three rivals scrambled desperately for votes.

Liam Fox and Kenneth Clarke were embroiled in a frantic struggle to determine who will take third place when today’s opening ballot is announced at about 5.20pm.

But David Davis, the front-runner among MPs, if not among party activists, was fighting to ensure that he received the largest possible tally to prevent any risk of his campaign faltering. Any figure below the 67 he has declared would spell serious trouble and MPs who had promised to support him in the first round might go elsewhere in the second.

If Dr Fox were in third place, and Mr Clarke eliminated, Mr Davis would face the real risk that some rightwingers might transfer to the Shadow Foreign Secretary in the belief that he had a better chance against Mr Cameron in the run-off.

Mr Clarke had a surprise late boost last night when James Arbuthnot, the former Chief Whip, announced that he was supporting him. Both he and Andrew Pelling said that they were backing the former Chancellor after all four candidates had appeared before a final hustings attended by MPs.

Even so, Mr Clarke and Dr Fox appear to be running neck and neck for third place.

The former Chancellor gave warning that there would be “a great deal of ill feeling” if he did not make the final round and suggested that he should face Mr Cameron.

“I don’t think I will be first out. I actually sense that what the membership want is David Cameron and myself to go forward at the end,” he said.

“We plainly have overwhelmingly more public support than the other two. Obviously the Conservative Parliamentary Party must first of all pronounce.” Brochures featuring polls showing Mr Clarke’s appeal to voters were being put on MPs’ desks by his team after yesterday’s hustings.

While the others were battling for every last scrap of support, Mr Cameron looked to be certain of second place with every hope of making it to the final run-off. He announced three more supporters — Peter Lilley, the former Cabinet minister, Maria Miller and Graham Stuart — bringing his declared total up to 39 with every expectation that it will be higher today. To the frustration of his rivals, Mr Cameron has turned the row over whether he took drugs to his advantage.

No one raised it with him at the hustings. But he told the MPs that the last week had shown that “if you take the right approach, stick to your guns and are calm under the pressure” then you come through. The last week had shown his “strength under fire”, he said.

Mr Cameron was pressed on precisely what he intended to do to modernise the party. He said that it would have to look, sound and feel totally different, and MPs had to be prepared to drop policies such as the patient passport, which looked to voters like a subsidy for the middle classes.

Today he will be able to add the backing of Philip Dunne, the MP for Ludlow, to his tally. Mr Dunne has balloted all 45,000 voters in his constituency to see who they want to be leader. With more than 1,000 votes sent back, Mr Cameron has come top with 44 per cent, with Mr Clarke second on 40 per cent.

Mr Davis polled 9 per cent and Mr Fox 6 per cent. Mr Dunne said that although he would only be guided by the poll, not bound by the result, he was happy that Mr Cameron had come top.

Mr Davis left the MPs laughing after telling them that as leader he would place the highest priority on staying in touch with the back benches. “You are the electors, the supporters and, in the final analysis, the executioners,” he told the MPs.

The Shadow Home Secretary said that the experience had been “quite fun”. “I got my points across and I didn’t forget my words. That is good enough, isn’t it?” He said that he remained confident of reaching the final run-off in the members’ ballot.

Mr Clarke said: “Europe only came up two or three times. The Conservative party is improving.” The former Chancellor promised MPs that he would run a more inclusive, less presidential-style leadership. “There is nothing I enjoy more than putting the world to rights as the evening wears on with colleagues,” he told them.

Mr Clarke also said that it was he the Liberal Democrats were most afraid of. “My politics are the politics the Liberals most fear. I am the Conservative leader they least want.”

Dr Fox said he had told the meeting that he had delivered throughout his campaign.

“We are a political party, not a PR organisation. Parties require good PR but politics first,” he said. “If you want to change you have to say first what you want to change to.”

He added: “The Tory party will not begin ever to recover properly until we have an intellectual renaissance,” he said.

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