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Wednesday’s events — the one-vote majority on an amendment seeking to restrict action against glorifying terrorism and the retreat, in face of a likely defeat, on the detention of suspected terrorists for 90 days — undermine the widely held view that we have a slavish Commons. Lord Hattersley’s claim in The Times yesterday that Labour backbenchers are “the most supine MPs in British history” is completely wrong. A parallel fallacy, strongly held on the Right, is that Tony Blair’s “packing” of the Lords with “cronies” has undermined its independence.
Anyone who expresses such claptrap should read the entertaining and revealing new book, The Rebels — How Blair Mislaid His Majority, by Philip Cowley, the leading academic chronicler of parliamentary dissent. Far from being supine, the scale of rebellions by Labour MPs increased sharply in the last Parliament to the highest level since 1945. Moreover, the large number of new Labour life peers has not helped the Government in the Lords. The removal of most of the hereditaries in late 1999 has emboldened the mainly appointed House. The larger Labour group can still be outvoted easily when Tory and Liberal Democrat peers band together. The Government was defeated twice as often from 2001 until this year as in the previous four years.
Consequently, the Government has increasingly had to take account of Parliament, especially after its majority was more than halved to 66 last May. This has not just been about narrow scrapes, as on Wednesday, but has also, more importantly but less noticeably, involved action by ministers to avoid defeats.
The main legislative problems ahead are:
Apart from terrorism and ID cards, most of these problems are in the medium term than over the next few weeks. Moreover, as Philip Cowley points out, there is a large element of unpredictability: “It’s never the things you think that cause you the most trouble.”
There is an underlying conflict between avoiding defeats and Mr Blair’s determination, repeatedly reaffirmed yesterday, to press ahead with his reform plans. He believes that opting out for a quiet life to avoid controversy, as urged by Labour MPs and anti-Blair commentators, would risk surrendering the political initiative and the centre ground to the Tories.
But talking tough, as Mr Blair likes to do, will not be enough. The Government will also have to develop tactical flexibility and adroitness.
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