THE future and legacy of Tony Blair now depend as much on political will as on Commons votes. Wednesday’s big defeat for the 90-day detention powers has reminded Mr Blair of his political mortality and that all governments depend on the consent of Parliament. But that is only half the story.

Prime ministers falter when they lose will and momentum. Governments in decline run out of ideas and become pre-occupied with internal squabbling. This shift is often detected first by senior civil servants. Normal business slows down and ministers focus on survival. That was true during the 1978-79 Winter of Discontent and in the last 18 months of the Major Government.

That is not yet happening. Wednesday’s vote was a big jolt, not a derailment. The real test is what is happening in departments. Senior ministers and their advisers are still busy preparing White Papers and legislation. Of course, they take account of possible parliamentary traps, but they always have done. Now ministers will be doubly careful in turning manifesto pledges and White Papers into Bills. As Philip Webster reports on this page, departments are examining ways of achieving some of their school and NHS reforms under existing legislation.

It is a mistake to regard legislation as synonymous with government activity. The political and media worlds focus on new proposals and on the passage of Bills, rather than on what happens afterwards. Acts often provide merely a framework, are enabling, in the jargon. This creates scope not just for later orders and regulations but also for ministers to act. The key is how Acts are implemented. That is especially true when Whitehall tries to improve performance at a local level.

For instance, the legislation permitting the creation of freestanding city academies was passed five years ago. But their creation and expansion has depended on the ability of ministers and advisers to find outside sponsors to create new academies. There were only 17 last summer. So achieving the Labour manifesto target of at least 200 by 2010 will depend mainly on will and energy, not on fresh legislation. Similarly, the Government has been able to involve private schools in providing places non-selectively to the state sector under current laws, as shown by the new Liverpool initiative with Sir Peter Lampl’s Sutton Trust.

A new law is still required, however, to assist the development of new, independent “trust” schools and to limit the powers of councils to obstruct their creation, in line with the proposal in the Education White Paper to place new duties on councils to promote choice and diversity.

So both will and laws are required. But a lot can be done with just the former. Yet that is not automatic. It depends on the quality and drive of ministers. That is why allies of Mr Blair are in the key public service departments. But they could not succeed without the active support of Mr Blair himself. That comes back to his personal authority. If the opponents of reform suspect that his power is waning, the public service reform programme will lose momentum. Listen out for the whispers in Whitehall as much as the division lobbies of Westminster.

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