DAVID CAMERON has made his first big mistake as future Conservative leader. It threatens both a serious split within the party and a rupture with European allies, while giving a boost to the Europhobe Right.

At issue is the apparently esoteric, but highly charged, question of the relations between Tory members of the European Parliament and the European People’s Party (EPP), which includes the main centre-right parties in the EU.

This has been a fraught question for a long time because the EPP leaders are avowedly integrationist/federalist. The Tories have found a way round this dilemma by being part of the European Democrat group in an alliance with the EPP. This does not bind the Tories to the EPP’s views on institutional and constitutional issues, but they retain the advantages of being part of a major group (in committee roles and money). This was reaffirmed in the Tory manifesto for the 2004 European elections, a compromise that David Davis has accepted.

Mr Cameron wants to end this agreement, which, he believes, is incompatible with the Tories’ sceptic views. But he has moved too hastily without considering the implications, or even consulting the leadership of the Tory MEPs.

Moreover, where will the Tory MEPs go? Daniel Hannan, one of the leading hardline sceptic MEPs, has argued that there are “mainstream centre-right parties who share our vision of a free-market, Atlanticist Europe of nation states”. The reality is that if the Tories were to break with the EPP, they would lose their clout in pushing economic reform (where they are influential) and they would languish amid a rag-bag of fringe parties, including nationalists and racists.

Such a decision would have several adverse consequences. First, the Tory MEPs would split. A clear majority of the 26-strong group at Strasbourg opposes a divorce, not least because they committed themselves at the European elections last year to remaining linked to the EPP until 2009. Most of this majority are sceptics, with only a tiny handful of Europhiles. This is completely separate from Mr Cameron’s general Eurosceptic stance, which most of the MEPs back.

Secondly, leaving the EPP looks strange on the very day that the Christian Democrat Angela Merkel is confirmed as the German Chancellor. It is pretty odd to talk about setting up a new Eurosceptic group that excludes the main centre-right parties. What kind of internationalism is that?

Thirdly, Mr Cameron appears to be appeasing Europhobes who openly talk about Britain leaving the EU and becoming a Norway on its fringes. Mr Cameron’s courting of the hardline Right has increased his support from MPs, but at a cost. If he is to succeed in persuading voters that the Tory party has, at last, changed, then he has to distance himself publicly from the unelectable Right.

What is so odd is that, on other issues, Mr Cameron has been sensibly cautious, not committing himself prematurely on tax cuts. This is an unnecessary, self-inflicted error.

KEEPING THE GAG ON BIRT

LORD BIRT, the Prime Minister’s adviser on strategy, has become a protected species. His influence as an iconoclast at the centre of government has been shown by the widespread animosity he has aroused among senior ministers and civil servants alike. Just the sort of person, you would think, who should give evidence to the inquiry by the Public Administration Committee into long-term strategy and planning. This is about the mechanics, not the content, of policy advice.

But no, Tony Blair has decided, after serious consideration, that the acting head of the Strategy Unit is better placed to give evidence. This is contrary to assurances last year of “a presumption that committees’ requests on attendance of civil servant witnesses, including special advisers, will be agreed to”. Perhaps Mr Blair can explain when he appears today before the Liaison Committee of select commitee chairmen.

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