CONFIDENCE in Gordon Brown has crumbled so badly that members of Unite, the country’s biggest union and one of Labour’s most generous donors, now think David Cameron would make a better prime minister.

According to a poll by Populus, more than half, 52%, of Unite’s members thought Cameron was “up to the job” of leading the country, against just 42% for Brown.

The poll suggests the prime minister is failing even to shore up Labour’s core vote in the recession. More Unite members still intend to vote Labour than Conservative, but this lead has plunged from 26 points at the 2005 general election to three now.

Although the poll was commissioned by the Conservative party, its results will be taken seriously because it was carried out by Populus, a respected independent company. It questioned a sample of just over 1,000 Unite members earlier this month.

Nearly half the respondents, 48%, said they voted Labour at the last election but only 34% expected to do so next time. Tory support was up from 22% to 31%, while the Liberal Democrats were up just one at 19%.

The most damning findings for Brown, however, came when members of the union were asked to compare him with Cameron. Nearly two-thirds, 61%, described the Tory leader as “strong”, compared with 49% for Brown.

Despite the prime minister’s launching of an array of initiatives in response to the recession – or perhaps because of it – only 42% see him as “likely to get things done”, compared with 50% for the Tory leader.

The recession is hitting a large number of union members and is expected by many economists to last beyond the next election.

While respondents see the Brown government as better qualified to handle the crisis – by 38% to 31% – Cameron is regarded as preferable in the longer term. By a margin of 37% to 27%, they said the Tory leader was the politician “to lead Britain forward after the next general election”.

More than half, 51%, of the Unite members thought a Cameron government would be good for them and their family, compared with 49% for Brown.

The poll is not all bad for Labour. It has a nine-point lead on “understanding people’s problems”, is six points ahead on sharing the values of Unite members, and is regarded as more honest than the Tories.

The poll will ring alarm bells for Labour strategists, however. Margaret Thatcher’s three election victories were based on persuading enough traditional Labour voters, including many union members, that a Conservative government would be best for them.

Unite, which has about 2m members from across the public and private sectors, gave more than £500,000 to Labour in the final three months of last year. Asked whether they agreed with the party donations, only 42% said yes and 58% were opposed.

By an even wider margin, 64% to 36%, respondents said they were against future large donations by the union.

Labour is likely to challenge the methodology of the poll but a similar exercise, carried out by Unite itself in September 2007, showed that even then, well before the recession, its members were lukewarm about the government.

Times Recommends

• Please help: maimed children of war want their lives back
• Unlocking the cruellest prison
• Prince Charles named in £81m court battle