TONY BLAIR admitted for the first time yesterday that British troops in Iraq could be a “provocation” and suggested that the Iraqi security forces could be in control of the country within 16 months.

In a marked change of tone that appeared to match an apparent shift of thinking in Washington, the Prime Minister laid strong emphasis in the Commons on the aim of America, Britain and their allies to withdraw from Iraq as soon as they could safely do so.

Less than a week after General Sir Richard Dannatt said that British troops should leave “sometime soon”, and that they might be aggravating security problems, Mr Blair repeated that the objective of the allies was a “progressive withdrawal”. He said he wanted to dispel the idea that Britain was going to stay in Iraq for ever.

Then he quoted General George Casey, commander of the multinational force in Iraq, who said two months ago: “I don’t have a date, but I can see over the next 12 to 18 months the Iraqi security forces progressing to a point where they can take on the security responsibilities of the country.”

Mr Blair added: “That is the policy of ourselves, our allies, not just America, but the other 20 or so countries there.” Although Mr Blair insisted that leaving prematurely would be “disastrous”, his repeated emphasis on the prospect of withdrawal within 18 months took most MPs by surprise.

Senior backbenchers suggested that Mr Blair was putting himself in a position where he would not be left behind should the White House change course after the midterm congressional elections in November.

According to leaks from the Iraq Study Group, led by James Baker, a former Secretary of State, President Bush may have to negotiate with Iraq’s neighbours, or even pull US troops out to bases beyond its borders.

Ministers say that Mr Blair would also have been influenced by evidence that General Dannatt’s intervention last week was strongly supported by British forces and the public.

In the Commons, David Cameron tried to draw distinctions between General Dannatt’s comments and the position consistently outlined by the Government, leading Mr Blair to suggest that the Tory leader was straining the bipartisan approach to Iraq.

That led Mr Cameron to retort: “My party supports what the troops are doing in Iraq. We have never backed some premature timetable for withdrawal. But we want you to give frank and candid answers.”

Mr Blair said that only a “progressive” withdrawal would work. “If we desert the Iraqi Government now, at the very time when they are building up forces, so that the Iraqi forces can take over security, [it] would be a gross dereliction of our duty to them.”

DANGER ZONE

Seventy British soldiers have been wounded in action in Afghanistan this year, according to figures published by the Ministry of Defence yesterday. Over the same period (January 1-September 30), 47 servicemen and women have been injured in hostilities in Iraq, underlining that Afghanistan is the more dangerous battlefield. In Iraq, a total of 277 service personnel have been injured in action since Operation Telic, the codename for the British campaign in the south, began in March 2003. The MoD says that 14 soldiers in Afghanistan are “very seriously injured”and in Iraq that three are “very seriously injured” and seven “seriously injured”.

Michael Evans

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