William Hague yesterday became the first member of the Tory leadership to predict a Conservative victory next year and said that his party was psychologically prepared for government.

The man named by David Cameron as his “deputy in all but name” went farther than before in suggesting that a Tory government would kill the Lisbon treaty and halt the latest process of European integration. He promised immediate legislation for a referendum to reject the treaty if it had not been ratified by the whole of the EU by the time that the Conservatives took power.

He left open the door to the possibility of the Tories promising a referendum in their election manifesto, even if the treaty had been ratified by then.

In an interview with The Times, the Shadow Foreign Secretary cast aside caution: “It is likely that we are going to be able to win the next election . . . I put it no more strongly than that.”

While there was no complacency in the party, he said that a trend was setting in. “However much opinion polls go up and down there is a mood of ‘this is long enough of a Labour government’ .” The Tories were psychologically prepared for government, he said. “We have the right mixture of excitement — when you have lost three elections it is quite exciting. But there is also a sober atmosphere, because if and when we win we will have the worst financial inheritance of any government in peacetime.”

In a sign of the leadership’s increasing confidence about the election, Mr Hague disclosed details of handover talks with the Civil Service — and contrasted them with the “fantasy politics” that marked the talks he had held as Conservative leader in 2001.

Mr Cameron’s team has instructed the Permanent Secretary of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to prepare for a “national security council”. Headed by Mr Cameron, it would include the defence, foreign, home and energy secretaries. Breaking with Labour’s “sofa government”, it would be a decision-making body staffed by the Cabinet Office secretariat, he said. Putting the Foreign Office on notice, Mr Hague said: “That is one of the things we would expect them to be prepared for when we come to office.”

He said that, under Mr Cameron, the Tories approached the next election as a “genuine team”, in contrast to the divisions of the past — including those during his leadership. “One of the most refreshing things about coming back on to the front line was returning to a totally different atmosphere. David Cameron creates a great team atmosphere with the right combination of collegiateness and decisiveness.”

Mr Hague expressed confidence about the party’s advance, drawing attention to victories in the North. He said that it had moved at “the right pace” in laying out policy, promising new green papers in the coming months.

He acknowledged that the “budgetary situation had changed dramatically”, making it even more difficult to make specific pledges, but said that the party would know the Tories’ intended “direction of travel”.

The leadership was not “remotely complacent”. He was astonished that Gordon Brown had not cashed in on popular goodwill when he took over at No 10 and called an election: “It was his best chance . . . He could well have won.”

He praised Mr Cameron’s coolness under fire when he was seen as “political toast” in the autumn of 2007. He recalled how, on the eve of the Tory conference, Mr Cameron had told his top team they had to achieve the “biggest political turnaround in modern political history” — in only a week that the Tories had achieved it. The episode had helped to bond Mr Cameron’s top team, he said.

Mr Hague used the interview to reassure President Obama and European leaders that a Tory government would be “active, energetic and engaged members of the EU”. The party had welcomed every foreign policy initiative by the new US Administration and Britain “owed” it to Mr Obama to back his plan for Afghanistan, he said.

The chances of the Lisbon treaty not being approved by next year, with difficulties in the Czech Republic and Poland and Ireland still to hold a second vote, were 50-50, he said. If his party wins, it will recommend rejection of the treaty in the referendum.

He also said that if the treaty were ratified in the run-up to the election or soon afterwards it would not have democratic legitimacy, implying that the British vote would still go ahead.

And for the first time he hinted that a referendum could still be promised in the Tory manifesto, even if the treaty had been ratified. Previously the Tories have said that they would not let matters rest in the event of the treaty being ratified but have declined to expand on what they might do.

Mr Hague said that, if it were not ratified by the time of a Tory victory, there would be a referendum “in the opening months” and a Bill preparing for the vote would be ready. If the treaty had been ratified, the party would, nevertheless, spell out in its manifesto what action it would take to reverse European integration. Pressed on whether in those circumstances a referendum could still be promised in a Tory manifesto, he said: “We would not rule anything in or out.”

The Shadow Foreign Secretary said that formal talks on an “amicable separation” from the European People’s Party in the Strasbourg Parliament had been completed. The Tories would leave after the European elections on June 4 to establish a new group. Its name had been decided and he was “very confident” that parties from the required minimum of seven nations would sign up. “We’ve got lots of partners in the wings.”

On issues such as climate change, energy liberalisation and the single market they were “great enthusiasts”. “Our difference is that we are not in favour of the institutional aggrandisement of Brussels,” he said.

Asked whether he expected British troops to be in Afghanistan at the end of a first Tory parliament, he said. “They will be if we’re getting somewhere. We’re not going to succeed in Afghanistan if people think we’re going to walk away every five minutes.”

Britain had borne a “disproportionate” military burden, he said, but hinted at support for Mr Obama’s “reinforcement of the military position”. There was consensus with the Government on much foreign policy, but a Cameron administration would give higher priority to relations with the Gulf states and India. The role of the Commonwealth would be restored.

Mr Hague defended Mr Cameron’s record on promoting female Tory MPs. He said that the aspiration that a third of all ministers would be women by the end of a first Tory government was a “correctly ambitious goal”. In seats where sitting Tory MPs were standing down “about half” of the candidates were women. Mr Hague admitted that one of his mistakes as leader had been to pull back from insisting that a woman be on every selection shortlist.

Asked whether the Tories were in danger of seeking to “coast” to victory, he replied sharply: “Do we look like we are coasting? There is a lot of hard work going on here.” He defended Mr Cameron against accusations of over-caution, citing the leader’s frank warnings over the need for public sector control. “I don’t think that’s overcautious, David Cameron is bold.”

He said that the leadership was examining savings in public spending. The MoD budget was “not immune”. But he again pledged his party to upgrading the Trident nuclear deterrent.

Mr Hague, who cheerfully admitted having made “a lot of money” in his time away from frontline politics, backed the full disclosure of MPs’ outside earnings. He said things were “not so bad” when MPs were not paid at all and Parliament was made up of those “enterprising enough to have some other income”.

Points of order

13 points the Tory lead over Labour in the last Populus poll for The Times

6.5 per cent the size of the swing from Labour to Tory

140 to 170 the number of target seats that the Conservatives would win if this were replicated on election day

50 to 80 the resulting Tory majority

May 11, 2005 when the current Parliament was first summoned

May 10, 2010 when it will cease to exist

53% of Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty in a referendum last June

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