David Cameron will head a party dominated by MPs more socially conservative and less concerned with the environment than their leader, an analysis of Conservative parliamentary candidates suggests.

Mr Cameron has told close colleagues that he believes he is on course to win 140 new Tory MPs after the next election, The Times has been told. While such a net gain would give Mr Cameron an overall majority of about 15, it could place him to the left of most of his parliamentary party, in which the majority will be new to the Commons.

As a keen student of new Labour’s rise to power, the Tory leader will be well aware of Tony Blair’s reaction to a sudden influx of unexpected arrivals. One of Peter Mandelson’s first acts in the new Labour Government on May 2, 1997, was to order a trawl of the unknowns swept into Parliament in the previous day’s landslide. Within days a list of 40 potential off-message deviants had been drawn up, including some labelled “mentally unstable”.

Although Mr Cameron would no doubt disavow such behaviour as characteristic of Mr Blair’s “control freakery”, Tory HQ has started to keep a watchful eye on an expanding list of likely new arrivals.

The analysis of Conservative candidates by the ConservativeHome website suggests that Mr Cameron should worry less about the odd eccentric and more about the general character of a new intake.

It finds that far from being a group of “Cameron clones” those most likely to be new Tory MPs are, in general, less concerned about climate change than terrorism, oppose green taxes and are hostile to gay adoptions. A majority oppose the party’s official policy of raising green taxes to reduce the taxation burden on families, according to a survey of 148 Tory candidates.

The survey, carried out in seats on a list of the 100 most-winnable constituencies and those already held, also finds that only 15 per cent believe climate change is a more important issue than terrorism. The survey suggests that an overwhelming majority of candidates in winnable seats – 83 per cent – support a significant expansion of nuclear power.

Although the party has shifted its position broadly to support new nuclear power stations, Mr Cameron has made the environment a key theme of his modernising message. He has used the slogan “Vote Blue, Go Green” in successive local elections. It is still regarded as an important part of Tory efforts to woo Liberal Democrat voters.

He will be less worried that 94 per cent of candidates believe that too much power has been transferred to the European Union. It is his own view and, as even Ken Clarke acknowledges, the “settled will” of the Conservative Party.

An almost uniformly Eurosceptic Conservative parliamentary party after the next election would, however, place additional pressure on Mr Cameron to deliver on his pledge to win power back from Brussels.

The worsening state of the public finances confronts Mr Cameron with politically unpalatable choices on tax and spending should he become Prime Minister, but he remains committed to increasing spending on health in real terms. That commitment means that other areas, including policing and defence, face even deeper cuts in the years ahead under a Cameron administration.

Competition for a declining amount of available cash is bound to increase pressure on Mr Cameron to make the health service share the pain in order to deliver on existing pledges to cut some taxes. More than 90 per cent of candidates strongly support the party’s pledge to reintroduce the married couples tax allowance. Aside from making it more difficult for the Tory leader to keep his party in the centre ground, the survey suggests that his administration could face backbench pressure on a number of so-called conscience issues.

The findings suggest that it will not be long before the antiabortion lobby seeks to reopen the debate about the time limit if a victory by Mr Cameron sweeps in a new generation of Tory MPs. Fully 85 per cent of those polled support a more restrictive abortion law. Mr Cameron himself supported a reduction to 20 weeks when the issue was debated in May last year.

On gay adoption, another potential flashpoint, Mr Cameron supported the Government in forcing Roman Catholic adoption agencies to consider gay couples (although he allowed his MPs a free vote). His position is at odds with those most likely to form the bulk of a Tory majority – 71 per cent support “the right of Catholic or other religious adoption agencies to decline to place children with same-sex couples”.

Repealing the ban on foxhunting, regarded as, at best, an unwelcome distraction by some modernisers, is supported by 119 of 120 Tory candidates in marginal seats, according to a separate survey by the Countryside Alliance. Mr Cameron has muted his support for foxhunting – for which he was a passionate advocate as a backbench MP – since becoming leader.

Worryingly for Mr Cameron, who as leader would have to deal with Alex Salmond, the SNP Scottish First Minister, a large majority – 86 per cent – of his candidates are keen to change the funding formula under which resources are shared by the nations and regions of Britain.

Mr Cameron made reforming the selection of candidates an early priority of his leadership. He was, however, forced to abandon an “A” list from which local Conservative associations were required to shortlist at least one candidate. Nevertheless, many of those on the list went on to winnable seats. Although some share Mr Cameron’s modernising zeal, others are considerably to the right of the leader who helped them to become selected.

Some Tories argue that Lord Ashcroft, who runs a target seats operation from within the party HQ, is exerting more influence over the shape of the future Conservative Party than Mr Cameron. The peer’s insistence that candidates meet weekly campaign targets in return for additional support suggests that a preponderance of pragmatic, business-minded political hopefuls will be rewarded with a seat in the Commons. Lord Ashcroft is believed to have considerable clout in the allocation of the party’s campaigning resources as it fights the political “ground war” before the next election. He helps to decide which seats are designated “sure-win”, “battleground” and “development”.

A Conservative spokesman said: “We have no idea what will happen at the next election and David Cameron has no fixed view on the number of seats that will change hands.”

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