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Labour is in danger of losing up to half the 500 seats and all four councils it is defending in the local elections on June 4th. 34 local authorities in England, mainly outside the big cities, will go to the polls to coincide with the nationwide Euro vote; in three further areas the position of directly elected Mayor also falls vacant.

The opinion polls suggest that there has been a swing of about 10% from Labour to the Tories since the last time most of these seats were contested on general election day 2005.

The latest Sunday Times survey of local government by-election results tells a similar story. The Tories have a national equivalent vote share of 40% -up nine points from four years ago. Labour are down nine points on 25%. The LibDems remain stable, but their 27% share now puts them in second place. The party’s ability to perform better at local than general elections being amply confirmed even in 2005 when the two votes coincided.

If those figures are reflected in the actual votes cast in June, the Tories would gain over 300 seats with Labour down by nearly 250. The LibDems would also lose out as many Tory candidates sailed past them on the back of voters switching directly from Labour.

On that basis Labour will post its worst county results since 1977. Then, as now, an unpopular Labour government faced voters reeling from the impact of recession. The Tories won overall control of every county in England except Cornwall (Independent), Durham (Labour), and Northumberland (Hung). Ironically each of those counties has been re-designated as a unitary authority and only one (the now LibDem Cornwall) has elections this year.

Labour’s current counties cover much of the party’s non-metropolitan heartland. Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire have been Labour-controlled since 1981, with Labour briefly losing its overall majority in Lancashire in 1985. All would slip from its grasp on modest swings of between 1% and 5%, and only Derbyshire looks beyond the scope of an outright Tory victory.

Of the four other counties where the Tories do not have majority, Warwickshire could be taken on a 4% swing from Labour and they would become the largest party in Cumbria (currently run as a Labour minority administration) following a similar movement.

As usual the party’s spin doctors will try hard to dampen expectations, but the story is clear. The Tories may be at an historic high water mark across local government as a whole, but there is room for improvement at this particular election cycle. If they do not make substantial gains, they are little better off than that day four years ago when they were simultaneously losing a general election. Nothing less than gains well into three figures and a share of the national vote above 40% will justify the claim that David Cameron is on his way to Downing Street.

If the Tories do carry all before them, then the Liberal Democrats too must look over their shoulder. Their overall control in both Devon and Somerset rests on just a handful of votes. The Tories themselves would take Devon on a 3% swing away from the Liberal Democrats; in Somerset a swing of just 2% since 2005 is needed.

In two related respects areas with local elections are likely to behave differently from the rest of the country where only the Euro polls are taking place. Prompted by more local campaigning and familiar names on the ballot paper, turnout will be measurably higher. Indeed the gap may be quite stark because the Euro turnout in many of Labour’s northern strongholds in 2004 was boosted by both all-postal voting and simultaneous local elections. They have neither this time round.

It is also likely that minor parties will perform less well in the locals. On the one hand, the pattern of contestation by groups like the BNP, Greens and UKIP is patchy; on the other, voters tend to opt for the more traditional parties when tangible local issues and control of their council tax levying authority is at stake.

With the Euro results being counted and declared only at local authority level, it will be the local elections again that feature in the popular parlour game of totting up the votes in individual parliamentary constituencies. The Tories need a swing from Labour of 6.9% at the general election to gain an overall Commons majority.

Local indicators will include Carlisle (13% Labour notional majority), Hyndburn (14%), and Warwickshire North (15%). LibDem seats like Cheltenham (1% notional majority over the Tories) and the newly created Chippenham (5%) and Newton Abbot (10%), where David Cameron was campaigning on Friday, will also be closely monitored.

Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, LGC Elections Centre, University of Plymouth

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